這樣的中國(guó)和印度，你可能并不知道

過(guò)去40年，中印兩國(guó)一直是全球最具活力的經(jīng)濟(jì)體。它們未來(lái)發(fā)展軌跡如何？面臨哪些共同的挑戰(zhàn)？

最近幾天，薩德系統(tǒng)——末段高空區(qū)域防御系統(tǒng)（Terminal High Altitude Area Defense，縮寫：THAAD）引發(fā)了全球關(guān)注，世界警惕的目光再一次投向亞洲。作為世界第二大經(jīng)濟(jì)體和世界第二大人口大國(guó)，中國(guó)和印度一直牽動(dòng)著不少國(guó)家或長(zhǎng)或短的腦回路，引發(fā)著不安和期待。

世界頂級(jí)會(huì)計(jì)事務(wù)所普華永道（Price Waterhouse Coopers Consulting，PwC）于2017年初發(fā)布的題為《2050年的世界》報(bào)告稱，中國(guó)預(yù)計(jì)到2050年將成為全球最大經(jīng)濟(jì)體，GDP（Gross Domestic Product）占全球比重約20%。

2017年普華永道報(bào)告《2050年的世界》

中國(guó)是否如同該報(bào)告所說(shuō)，將于2050年躍居世界第一大經(jīng)濟(jì)體（the biggest economy in the world）？印度和該國(guó)的鐵皮火車承擔(dān)著巨大的人口壓力，是否還能順利發(fā)展？中印兩國(guó)的人口紅利是否一直奏效？今天，小編為大家?guī)?lái)了英國(guó)《金融時(shí)報(bào)》（Finacial Times）的專家觀點(diǎn)，讓你三張圖看懂中印經(jīng)濟(jì)實(shí)力對(duì)比。

① How do India and China's recent economic growth stories compare?

如何比較印度和中國(guó)近年的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展？專家表示，最近40年，中國(guó)和印度的經(jīng)濟(jì)在全球最具有活力（dynamic）。

Over the past 40 years, China and India, have been the most dynamic economies of any size in the world.China has grown much faster than india in terms of GDP per head about twice as fast.Nevertheless, both have done remarkably well.

過(guò)去40年，中國(guó)和印度一直是全球最有活力的經(jīng)濟(jì)體，不管從哪個(gè)體量級(jí)別來(lái)看。中國(guó)的人均GDP增長(zhǎng)比印度快得多，增速是印度的兩倍左右，不過(guò)其實(shí)兩者的表現(xiàn)都很搶眼。

Over this period, China's GDP per head has risen from about 5 percent of US level's to about 26 percent.Over the same period India's has doubled from about 4 or 5 percent to about 11 percent.So these are the two great dynamic economies of the world.India is lagging behind, but both are rising and growing dynamically.

自1980年代初以來(lái)，中國(guó)的人均GDP由美國(guó)的5%上升到美國(guó)的26%。同期，印度人均GDP也實(shí)現(xiàn)了翻倍，從美國(guó)的4%至5%，上升到了美國(guó)的11%左右。所以兩者都是世界上最具活力的經(jīng)濟(jì)體，印度稍落后，但兩者增長(zhǎng)都很快。

② How open are their economies?

中國(guó)和印度兩國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)開放程度如何呢？通常大家都認(rèn)為中國(guó)更加開放，但今天我們帶來(lái)了不同的觀點(diǎn)。

People tend to think of China as the more open and integrated of the two giant economies.That's no longer true surprisingly.The ratio of trade to GDP in China has actually been falling since the financial crisis, and today it is no higher than Indian's.

在中印這兩大經(jīng)濟(jì)體中，人們一般認(rèn)為，中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)更開放，更融入世界。但令人驚訝的是，這一判斷已經(jīng)不再正確了。在中國(guó)，貿(mào)易占GDP的比重自金融危機(jī)以來(lái)一直在下滑。到今天，這一比重并不比印度高。

Meanwhile, India's ratio of trade to GDP has risen dramatically since the liberalization in the early 1990s.The same is true of capital flows relative to GDP, openness for foreign direct investment.India's economy today is far more open and integrated into the world economy than most people realize.

與此同時(shí)，自1990年早期市場(chǎng)自由化以來(lái)，印度貿(mào)易占GDP的比重迅速上升， 印度的資本流動(dòng)占GDP比重、對(duì)外商直接投資的開放度也在上升，今天的印度經(jīng)濟(jì)遠(yuǎn)比我們想象得更開放，更融入世界。

③ What opportunities are there for both economies?

雖然中印兩大經(jīng)濟(jì)體的發(fā)展前景無(wú)限好，但我們不免憂慮他們是不是已經(jīng)近黃昏。作為未來(lái)世界經(jīng)濟(jì)的“準(zhǔn)領(lǐng)頭羊”，中印兩國(guó)將遇到哪些機(jī)遇和挑戰(zhàn)？

If we look at the years ahead we have to recognize that these two countries are going to be gigantic unless something goes very seriously wrong.It's overwhelmingly likely that China will be much the biggest economy in the world, and India will be the second biggest by the middle of the century.With their enormous populations they don't need to do that well economically to achieve that.

如果我們展望未來(lái)，必須承認(rèn)這兩個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)體未來(lái)的體量都會(huì)非常龐大，除非他們發(fā)生什么嚴(yán)重失誤。極有可能的是，中國(guó)將成為世界第一大經(jīng)濟(jì)體。印度也會(huì)在21世紀(jì)中期成為第二大經(jīng)濟(jì)體。兩個(gè)國(guó)家人口基數(shù)都非常大，所以要實(shí)現(xiàn)這個(gè)目標(biāo)不是什么難事。

詞匯總結(jié)

GDP per head 人均GDP, 亦可作 GDP per capita

China has grown much faster than india in terms of GDP per head about twice as fast.Nevertheless, both have done remarkably well.

中國(guó)的人均GDP增長(zhǎng)比印度快得多，增速是印度的兩倍左右，不過(guò)其實(shí)兩者的表現(xiàn)都很搶眼。

lag behind 落后于

We still lag far behind our competitors in using modern technology.

我們?cè)谶\(yùn)用現(xiàn)代技術(shù)方面仍遠(yuǎn)落后于我們的許多競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手。