演講MP3+雙語文稿:氣候變化如何降低我們食物的營(yíng)養(yǎng)價(jià)值

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[演講者及介紹]Kristie Ebi

公共衛(wèi)生研究員Kristie Ebi研究和開發(fā)干預(yù)措施來幫助高危人群應(yīng)對(duì)氣候變化。

[演講主題]氣候變化會(huì)如何降低我們食物的營(yíng)養(yǎng)價(jià)值

[中英文字幕]

翻譯者 Nan Yang 校對(duì)者 Yolanda Zhang

00:01

Yogi Berra, a US baseball player andphilosopher, said, "If we don't know where we're going, we might not getthere." Accumulating scientific knowledge is giving us greater insights,greater clarity, into what our future might look like in a changing climate andwhat that could mean for our health. I'm here to talk about a related aspect,on how our emissions of greenhouse gases from burning of fossil fuels isreducing the nutritional quality of our food.

美國(guó)棒球運(yùn)動(dòng)員兼哲學(xué)家 Yogi Berra 說過：“如果不知道哪是我們的目的地，我們就無法到達(dá)。”不斷累積的科學(xué)知識(shí)帶給我們更深刻的見解，更大的清晰度，讓我意識(shí)到我們的未來在氣候的變化下會(huì)是什么樣子以及對(duì)我們的健康意味著什么。我今天在這里要講解的是與之相關(guān)的一個(gè)方面，就是我們通過燃燒化石燃料產(chǎn)生的溫室氣體，正在降低我們食物的營(yíng)養(yǎng)質(zhì)量。

00:37

We'll start with the food pyramid. You allknow the food pyramid. We all need to eat a balanced diet. We need to get proteins,we need to get micronutrients, we need to get vitamins. And so, this is a wayfor us to think about how to make sure we get what we need every day so we cangrow and thrive.

讓我們從食物金字塔開始說起。我們都知道食物金字塔。我們都需要均衡飲食。我們需要攝入蛋白質(zhì)，我們需要攝入微量元素，我們需要攝入維他命。所以，這是我們思考如何保證我們每天所需的方法，這樣我們可以茁壯成長(zhǎng)。

00:56

But we eat not just because we need to, wealso eat for enjoyment. Bread, pasta, pizza -- there's a whole range of foodsthat are culturally important. We enjoy eating these. And so they're importantfor our diet, but they're also important for our cultures.

但是我們不僅因?yàn)樯眢w需要而吃，我們也為了享受而吃。面包，意大利面，披薩等等，有很大一部分的食物在文化層面上非常重要。我們非常喜歡吃這些。所以它們不只對(duì)我們的飲食很重要，對(duì)我們的文化也非常重要。

01:15

Carbon dioxide has been increasing sincethe start of the Industrial Revolution, increasing from about 280 parts permillion to over 410 today, and it continues to increase. The carbon that plantsneed to grow comes from this carbon dioxide. They bring it into the plant, theybreak it apart into the carbon itself, and they use that to grow. They also neednutrients from the soil. And so yes, carbon dioxide is plant food.

自從工業(yè)革命的開始，二氧化碳排放量就在逐漸增加，從開始的 280 ppm (濃度單位) 到現(xiàn)在的 410 ppm，而且還在繼續(xù)增長(zhǎng)。植物生長(zhǎng)所需的碳來自于這些二氧化碳。它們吸收二氧化碳，分解成碳本身，然后利用其來生長(zhǎng)。它們也需要從土壤里攝入營(yíng)養(yǎng)。所以，是的，二氧化碳是植物的食物。

01:49

And this should be good news, of risingcarbon dioxide concentrations, for food security around the world, making surethat people get enough to eat every day. About 820 million people in the worlddon't get enough to eat every day. So there's a fair amount written about howhigher CO2 is going to help with our food security problem. We need toaccelerate our progress in agricultural productivity to feed the nine to 10billion people who will be alive in 2050 and to achieve the SustainableDevelopment Goals, particularly the Goal Number 2, that is on reducing foodinsecurity, increasing nutrition, increasing access to the foods that we needfor everyone. We know that climate change is affecting agriculturalproductivity. The earth has warmed about one degree centigrade since preindustrialtimes. That is changing local temperature and precipitation patterns, and thathas consequences for the agricultural productivity in many parts of the world.And it's not just local changes in temperature and precipitation, it's theextremes. Extremes in terms of heat waves, floods and droughts aresignificantly affecting productivity.

提升二氧化碳的濃度，對(duì)于全世界的食品安全都應(yīng)該是好消息，可以保證人們每天有足夠的食物。世界上有8億2千萬的人沒有足夠的食物。所以對(duì)于還要多高的二氧化碳可以幫助解決我們的食品安全問題，人們進(jìn)行過很多討論。我們需要加快農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)進(jìn)度，來養(yǎng)活到2050年，地球上將出現(xiàn)的90到100億人口，以實(shí)現(xiàn)可持續(xù)發(fā)展目標(biāo)，特別是目標(biāo)2，讓食品更加安全，增加營(yíng)養(yǎng)，讓每個(gè)人得到所需的食物。我們知道氣候變化正在改變著農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)力。自工業(yè)化時(shí)代以來，地球的溫度已經(jīng)升高了1攝氏度。這正改變著局部的溫度和降水模式，這對(duì)世界很多地方的農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)力有著重大的影響。而且這并不只是對(duì)局部氣溫和降水的影響，而是非常極端的影響。嚴(yán)重的熱浪，洪水和干旱正在嚴(yán)重影響著生產(chǎn)力。

03:10

And that carbon dioxide, besides makingplants grow, has other consequences as well, that plants, when they have highercarbon dioxide, increase the synthesis of carbohydrates, sugars and starches,and they decrease the concentrations of protein and critical nutrients. Andthis is very important for how we think about food security going forward.

而二氧化碳，除了幫助植物生長(zhǎng)以外，也有其它副作用，當(dāng)植物攝入過高的二氧化碳，提高了碳水化合物，糖和淀粉的合成，而降低了蛋白質(zhì)和關(guān)鍵營(yíng)養(yǎng)物質(zhì)的濃度。而這對(duì)我們思考未來的食品安全非常重要。

03:38

A couple of nights ago in the table talkson climate change, someone said that they're a five-sevenths optimist: thatthey're an optimist five days of the week, and this is a topic for the othertwo days.

在幾天前的一個(gè)關(guān)于氣候變化的談話中，有人提到他們是七分之五樂觀主義者：意思是每周有五天他們是樂觀的，而另外兩天不是。

03:53

When we think about micronutrients, almostall of them are affected by higher CO2 concentrations. Two in particular areiron and zinc. When you don't have enough iron, you can develop iron deficiencyanemia. It's associated with fatigue, shortness of breath and some fairlyserious consequences as well. When you don't have enough zinc, you can have aloss of appetite. It is a significant problem around the world. There's aboutone billion people who are zinc deficient. It's very important for maternal andchild health. It affects development. The B vitamins are critical for a wholerange of reasons. They help convert our food into energy. They're important forthe functions of many of the physiologic activities in our bodies. And when youhave higher carbon in a plant, you have less nitrogen, and you have less Bvitamins.

當(dāng)我們想到微量元素時(shí)，基本上所有微量元素都受到更高濃度的二氧化碳影響。特別是鐵和鋅。當(dāng)你沒有攝入足夠的鐵時(shí)，會(huì)觸發(fā)缺鐵性貧血，導(dǎo)致疲勞，呼吸急促，和其它一些非常嚴(yán)重的癥狀。而當(dāng)你攝入鋅不足的時(shí)候，可能會(huì)導(dǎo)致沒有胃口。這是全球范圍內(nèi)的嚴(yán)重問題。有大約10億人缺鋅。這對(duì)于母親和孩子的健康尤為重要。它影響著孩子的生長(zhǎng)。維他命B在很多方面都非常關(guān)鍵。B族維他命幫助把我們的食物轉(zhuǎn)化為能量。對(duì)于我們身體中很多的生理活動(dòng)機(jī)能 都非常重要。而且當(dāng)在植物中有過高的碳，氮含量就會(huì)減少，維他命B也會(huì)減少。

04:46

And it's not just us. Cattle are alreadybeing affected because the quality of their forage is declining. In fact, thisaffects every consumer of plants. And give a thought to, for example, our petcats and dogs. If you look on the label of most of the pet and dog food,there's a significant amount of grain in those foods. So this affects everyone.

而這不只會(huì)影響我們。由于草飼料質(zhì)量的下降，牛也已經(jīng)受到了影響。實(shí)際上，它影響著所有植物的消耗者。想一下，比如我們的寵物貓狗。如果你仔細(xì)看狗糧，貓糧產(chǎn)品的標(biāo)簽，這些食物里包含大量的谷物。它影響著每個(gè)生物。

05:11

How do we know that this is a problem? We knowfrom field studies and we know from experimental studies in laboratories. Inthe field studies -- and I'll focus primarily on wheat and on rice -- there'sfields, for example, of rice that are divided into different plots. And theplots are all the same: the soil's the same, the precipitation's the same --everything's the same. Except carbon dioxide is blown over some of the plots.And so you can compare what it looks like under today's conditions and undercarbon dioxide conditions later in the century.

我們是如何知道這是個(gè)問題的呢? 我們從一些實(shí)地考察，從實(shí)驗(yàn)室的實(shí)驗(yàn)研究得知這些。在實(shí)地考察中——我會(huì)主要關(guān)注小麥和水稻—— 例如，水稻田 會(huì)被分成不同的地塊。這些地塊完全一樣： 一樣的土壤，一樣的灌溉方式—— 所有條件都一樣，除了吹到田里的二氧化碳。所以你可以比較 在現(xiàn)在的二氧化碳情況 和本世紀(jì)后期二氧化碳的 情況下對(duì)作物的影響。

05:53

I was part of one of the few studies thathave done this. We looked at 18 rice lines in China and in Japan and grew themunder conditions that you would expect later in the century. And when you lookat the results, So protein declines about 10 percent, iron about eight percent,zinc about five percent. These don't sound like really big changes, but whenyou start thinking about the poor in every country who primarily eat starch,that this will put people who are on the edge over the edge into frankdeficiencies, creating all kinds of health problems.

我參與了這些實(shí)地考察中的一部分。我們查看了在中國(guó)和日本的 18條水稻生產(chǎn)線，它們是在我們預(yù)期中的本世紀(jì)后期的二氧化碳情況下生長(zhǎng)?，F(xiàn)在讓我們來看看結(jié)果，可見蛋白質(zhì)含量降低了10%，鐵8%，鋅大約5%。聽起來這些不是什么大變化，但是當(dāng)你想到每個(gè)國(guó)家主要以吃淀粉為生的窮人時(shí)，這會(huì)把那些生存在貧窮邊緣的人推向營(yíng)養(yǎng)嚴(yán)重不足的一邊，導(dǎo)致各種安全健康問題。

06:42

The situation is more significant for the Bvitamins. When you look at vitamin B1 and vitamin B2, there's about a 17percent decline. Pantothenic acid, vitamin B5, is about a 13 percent decline.Folate is about a 30 percent decline. And these are averages over the variousexperiments that were done. Folate is critical for child development. Pregnantwomen who don't get enough folate are at much higher risk of having babies withbirth defects. So these are very serious potential consequences for our healthas CO2 continues to rise.

情況對(duì)于維他命B族更加嚴(yán)重。我們看維他命B1和B2，都大約降低了17%。泛酸，維他命B5 下降了大約13%。葉酸降低了30%。而這些是我們所做的各種實(shí)驗(yàn)的平均值。葉酸對(duì)于胚胎的成長(zhǎng)非常關(guān)鍵。孕婦如果不能攝入足夠葉酸會(huì)有更高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)造成嬰兒缺陷。所以這些都是二氧化碳持續(xù)增長(zhǎng)會(huì)對(duì)我們的健康帶來的潛在嚴(yán)重后果。

07:23

In another example, this is modeling workthat was done by Chris Weyant and his colleagues, taking a look at this chainfrom higher CO2 to lower iron and zinc -- and they only looked at iron and zinc-- to various health outcomes. They looked at malaria, diarrheal disease,pneumonia, iron deficiency anemia, and looked at what the consequences could bein 2050. So you can see the major impacts in Asia and in Africa, but also notethat in countries such as the United States and countries in Europe, thepopulations also could be affected. They estimated about 125 million peoplecould be affected. They also modeled what would be the most effective interventions,and their conclusion was reducing our greenhouse gases: getting our greenhousegas emissions down by mid-century so we don't have to worry so much about theseconsequences later in the century.

接下來的例子，是由Chris Weyant和他的同事做的建模工作，來看這個(gè)從高二氧化碳到低鋅低鐵的鏈條，他們研究了鐵和鋅與各種健康狀況的關(guān)系。他們研究了瘧疾，腹瀉，肺炎，缺鐵性貧血，研究了2050年結(jié)果會(huì)是什么樣，你可以看見在非洲和亞洲的主要影響，但是要注意，在美國(guó)和歐洲各國(guó)，人們也受到了影響。他們估計(jì)大約1億2千500萬人會(huì)受影響。他們同樣模擬了哪種是最有效的干預(yù)措施，而結(jié)論就是要減少溫室氣體：在本世紀(jì)中期減少溫室氣體的釋放我們就不需要擔(dān)心那些對(duì)本世紀(jì)后期產(chǎn)生的影響。

08:28

These experiments, these modeling studiesdid not take climate change itself into account. They just focused on thecarbon dioxide component. So when you put the two together, it's expected theimpact is much larger than what I've told you.

這些實(shí)驗(yàn)，模型的研究沒有把氣候變化考慮在內(nèi)。他們只是專注于二氧化碳部分。所以當(dāng)你把這兩部分放在一起，可以預(yù)期那些影響將比我之前所說的還要嚴(yán)重。

08:44

I'd love to be able to tell you right nowhow much the food you had for breakfast, the food you're going to have forlunch, has shifted from what your grandparents ate in terms of its nutritionalquality. But I can't. We don't have the research on that. I'd love to tell youhow much current food insecurity is affected by these changes. But I can't. Wedon't have the research on that, either. There's a lot that needs to be knownin this area, including what the possible solutions could be. We don't knowexactly what those solutions are, but we've got a range of options. We've gotadvancements in technologies. We've got plant breeding. We've gotbiofortification. Soils could make a difference. And, of course, it will bevery helpful to know how these changes could affect our future health and thehealth of our children and the health of our grandchildren. And theseinvestments take time. It will take time to sort all of these issues out. Thereis no national entity or business group that is funding this research. We needthese investments critically so that we do know where we're going.

此時(shí)我非常想告訴你們，我們?cè)绮秃臀绮统缘氖澄飶臓I(yíng)養(yǎng)質(zhì)量的角度跟我們祖父母所吃的有什么不同。但是我不能。我們沒有那方面的研究。我非常想告訴你們有多少食品的安全性被這些變化影響。但是我不能。我們也沒有這方面的研究。在這個(gè)領(lǐng)域還有很多需要探索的東西，包括可能的解決方案是什么。我們不知道確切的解決方案，但是我們有一系列選擇。我們有技術(shù)的進(jìn)步。我們有植物育種。我們有生物強(qiáng)化。土壤可以帶來變化。而且當(dāng)然，它有助于我們知道這些變化如何影響人們未來的健康，和我們子孫的健康。這些投入都需要時(shí)間。需要時(shí)間來把問題整理清楚。沒有國(guó)家實(shí)體或者商業(yè)機(jī)構(gòu)在資助這些研究。我們非常需要這些投資，這樣就可以知道我們的方向。

10:04

In the meantime, what we can do is ensurethat all people have access to a complete diet, not just those in the wealthyparts of the world but everywhere in the world. We also individually andcollectively need to reduce our greenhouse gas emissions to reduce thechallenges that will come later in the century.

同時(shí)，我們可以做的事情是確保所有人能夠得到完整的飲食結(jié)構(gòu)，不只是那些富裕的地方，而是世界上所有地方。我們從個(gè)人和集體的角度都要減少溫室氣體的排放，這樣才能減少本世紀(jì)后期會(huì)出現(xiàn)的那些挑戰(zhàn)

10:27

It's been said that if you think educationis expensive, try ignorance. Let's not. Let's invest in ourselves, in ourchildren and in our planet.

有人說過，如果你認(rèn)為教育很昂貴，那么試一試無知的代價(jià)。但是我們不能這樣。讓我們?yōu)樽约和顿Y，為我們的孩子和地球投資吧。

10:41

Thank you.

謝謝大家。

10:42

(Applause)

（掌聲）