演講MP3+雙語文稿:“災(zāi)難論”如何影響我們應(yīng)對全球變暖

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【演講者及介紹】Per Espen Stoknes

心理學(xué)家、經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家埃斯彭?斯托克內(nèi)斯(Per Espen Stoknes)以富有想象力的方式將心理學(xué)和經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)編織在一起，探索人類與自然世界彼此之間的關(guān)系。

【演講主題】應(yīng)對全球變暖時，如何將麻木與疲勞轉(zhuǎn)化為行動

【中英文字幕】

翻譯者 Bingxian Bai 校對者 Echo Sun

00:13

How do we get people engaged in solvingglobal warming?

我們?nèi)绾尾拍茏屓藗儏⑴c解決全球變暖問題？

00:18

I'd like to start with running two shortexperiments with you all. So your task is to notice if you feel any differenceas I speak. OK? Here we go.

我想與你們一起，以兩個簡短的實驗作為開場。你們的任務(wù)就是察覺自己是否有不同的感受。好嗎？我們開始吧。

00:32

We are seeing rising carbon dioxide levels,now about 410 ppms. To avoid the RCP 8.5 scenario, we need rapiddecarbonization. The global carbon budget for 66 percent likelihood to meet thetwo-degree target is approximately 800 gigatons.

我們見證著二氧化碳含量不斷升高，現(xiàn)在濃度是0.41‰。為了避免出現(xiàn)典型濃度路徑8.5的情景，我們需要快速脫碳。為了能有66%的可能性能夠達(dá)到全球升溫低于2攝氏度的目標(biāo)，全球碳預(yù)算大約是8000億噸。

00:56

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

00:58

OK, now let me try something else.

好吧，我試著從另一個角度說明。

01:02

We are heading for an uninhabitable earth:monster storms, killer floods, devastating wildfires, crazy heat waves thatwill cook us under a blazing sun. 2017 is already so unexpectedly warm, it'sfreaking out climate scientists. We have a three-year window to cut emissions,three years. If not, we will soon live in a boiling earth, a hellhole. OK. So--

我們正朝著一個不宜居住的地球發(fā)展：猛烈的風(fēng)暴、泛濫的洪水、毀滅性的野火、烈日下炙烤著我們的洶涌熱浪。2017年已是如此出乎意料地溫暖，使氣候?qū)W家崩潰。我們有三年的時間減排，三年。如果不這么做的話，我們很快將置身于一個酷熱的地球，如同一個地獄。好吧。那么——

01:39

(Applause)

（掌聲）

01:40

Now your task: How did these ways ofspeaking make you feel? The first, detached maybe or just confused? What's thisguy talking about? The other, fearful or just numb? So again, the question Iasked: How do we get people engaged in solving global warming? And why don'tthese two ways of communicating work?

現(xiàn)在你們的任務(wù)：對于這些說法你們有什么感受？第一種，冷漠或許只是困惑？這個人在說什么？另一種，感到害怕或者只是麻木？所以，重申剛才我的問題：怎樣才能讓人們參與解決全球氣候變暖問題？以及，為什么這兩種傳播方法不起作用？

02:06

You see, the biggest obstacle to dealingwith climate disruptions lies between your ears. Building on a rapidly growingbody of psychology and social science, I spent years looking into the fiveinner defenses that stop people from engaging.

你們會發(fā)現(xiàn)，應(yīng)對氣候破壞最大的障礙在于你們的耳朵?；谛睦韺W(xué)和社會科學(xué)的快速發(fā)展，我用了多年時間研究5種心理防御這些防御阻止人們參與解決全球變暖問題。

02:24

When people hear news about the climatecoming straight at them, the first defense comes up rapidly: distance. When wehear about the climate, we hear about something far away in space -- thinkArctic ice, polar bears -- far away in time -- think 2100. It's huge andslow-moving -- think gigatons and centuries. So it's not here. It's not now.Since it feels so far away from me, it seems outside my circle of influence, soI feel helpless about it. There's nothing I can do. In our everyday lives, mostof us prefer to think about nearer things, such as our jobs, our kids, how manylikes we get on Facebook. Now, that, that's real.

當(dāng)人們聽到與他們直接相關(guān)的氣候新聞時，他們快速建立起第一種防御：距離。當(dāng)我們聽到有關(guān)氣候的信息，我們聽到了有關(guān)遙遠(yuǎn)太空的信息——想到北極冰、北極熊——遙遠(yuǎn)的時間——想到2100年。這是個龐大又緩慢的變化——幾十億噸和幾個世紀(jì)。所以，我們現(xiàn)在體會不到。因為感覺到氣候問題離自己很遠(yuǎn)，似乎不會影響到自己，所以覺得自己幫不上什么忙。我什么忙也幫不上。在我們的日常生活中，大多數(shù)人更傾向于考慮身邊的事情，比如我們的工作、我們的孩子，我們在臉書上有多少個贊。這是事實。

03:16

Next defense is doom. Climate change isusually framed as a looming disaster, bringing losses, cost and sacrifice. Thatmakes us fearful. But after the first fear is gone, my brain soon wants toavoid this topic altogether. After 30 years of scary climate changecommunications, more than 80 percent of media articles still use disasterframings, but people habituate to and then -- desensitize to doom overuse. Somany of us are now suffering a kind of apocalypse fatigue, getting numb fromtoo much collapse porn.

第二種防御：災(zāi)難。氣候變化通常被視為一個正在逼近的災(zāi)難，帶來各種傷亡、損失和犧牲。讓我們感到恐懼。但是當(dāng)?shù)谝粚涌謶滞嗜?，我的大腦很快地想要徹底擺脫這個話題。在經(jīng)歷了30年可怕的關(guān)于氣候變化的話題之后，超過80%的媒體文章依舊使用災(zāi)難這個定義，但是人們已經(jīng)習(xí)慣了，以至于——對這種頻繁的報道變得麻木。我們中的許多人對這種災(zāi)難論產(chǎn)生厭倦，太多的災(zāi)難論讓人變得麻木。

04:04

The third defense is dissonance. Now, ifwhat we know, that fossil fuel use contributes to global warming, conflictswith what we do -- drive, fly, eat beef -- then so-called cognitive dissonancesets in. This is felt as an inner discomfort. We may feel like hypocrites. Toget rid of this discomfort, our brain starts coming up with justifications. SoI can say, for instance, "My neighbor, he has a much bigger car than Ido." Or, "Changing my diet doesn't amount to anything if I am theonly one to do it." Or, I could even want to doubt climate science itself.I could say, "You know, climate is always changing."

第三種防御：失調(diào)?，F(xiàn)在，如果我們所知道的，使用化石燃料會導(dǎo)致全球氣候變暖，與我們所做的互相矛盾——開車、坐飛機、吃牛肉——那么這就是所謂的認(rèn)知失調(diào)。這是一種內(nèi)在的不安。我們可能會有一種偽善的感覺，為了擺脫這種不安，我們的大腦開始尋找一些理由。舉個例子，所以我會說：“我鄰居的車比我的要大很多。”或者，“如果只有我一個人改變飲食習(xí)慣，這根本起不了任何作用?！庇只蛘?，我甚至可以懷疑氣候科學(xué)本身。我可以說：“你知道的，氣候總是在變化?！?/p>

04:51

So these justifications make us all feelbetter, but at the expense of dismissing what we know. Thus, behavior drivesattitudes. My personal cognitive dissonance comes up when I recognize that I'vebeen flying from Oslo to New York and back to Oslo in order to speak about theclimate.

所以這些理由讓我們都好受一些，但代價卻是我們對于自己所了解的事實置之不理。因此，行為引導(dǎo)態(tài)度。當(dāng)我意識到我為了討論氣候問題從奧斯陸坐飛機來到紐約然后再飛回奧斯陸我個人的認(rèn)知失調(diào)產(chǎn)生了。

05:14

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

05:16

For 14 minutes.

為了一個14分鐘的演講。

05:18

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

05:21

So that makes me want to move on to denial.

所以這使我想要繼續(xù)討論下一個防御：拒絕承認(rèn)。

05:24

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

05:26

So if we keep silent, ignore or ridiculefacts about climate disruptions, then we might find inner refuge from fear andguilt. Denial doesn't really come from lack of intelligence or knowledge. No,denial is a state of mind in which I may be aware of some troubling knowledge,but I live and act as if I don't know. So you could call it a kind of doublelife, both knowing and not knowing, and often this is reinforced by others, myfamily or community, agreeing not to raise this tricky topic.

所以，如果我們保持沉默，忽視或是嘲笑氣候破壞這個事實，那么我們可能會發(fā)現(xiàn)我們是在逃避內(nèi)心的恐懼和罪惡。拒絕承認(rèn)并不是因為缺少智慧或是知識。而是因為，拒絕承認(rèn)是一種心理狀態(tài)在這種心理狀態(tài)下，我可能意識到了一些麻煩，但我表現(xiàn)得如同我并不知道這些麻煩一樣。所以你可以稱之為一種雙重生活，可以說是知道的，又表現(xiàn)得不知道，而且這種心理又通過我的家人和我所在的社區(qū)得到加強，他們贊同不再提起這個難以應(yīng)對的話題。

06:03

Finally, identity. Alarmed climateactivists demand that government takes action, either with regulation or carbontaxes. But consider what happens when people who hold conservative values, forinstance, hear from an activist that government ought to expand even further.Particularly in rich Western democracies, they are then less likely to believethat science. How is that? Well, if I hold conservative values, for instance, Iprobably prefer big proper cars and small government over tiny, tiny cars andhuge government. And if climate science comes and then says government shouldexpand further, then I probably will trust that science less. In this way,cultural identity starts to override the facts. The values eat the facts, andmy identity trumps truth any day.

最后一種防御：認(rèn)同。焦慮的氣候活動家要求政府采取行動，要么制定規(guī)章，要么征收碳排放稅。但是設(shè)想一下，會有什么事情發(fā)生，當(dāng)那些保守派的人從一個活動家那里聽說政府應(yīng)該大力擴(kuò)展。尤其是在一些富有的西方民主國家，他們更可能不太相信這種理論。為什么會這樣？比如說我是個觀念保守的人，比起小型汽車和大型政府，我更傾向于大型汽車和小型政府。如果氣候科學(xué)表明政府應(yīng)該大力擴(kuò)展，那么我可能就不會那么相信這個說法。文化認(rèn)同以這種方式凌駕于事實之上。觀念打敗了事實，無論如何，我的認(rèn)同戰(zhàn)勝了真相。

07:11

So, after recognizing how these five D'skill engagement, how can we move beyond them? New research shows how we canflip these five defenses over into key success criteria for a morebrain-friendly climate communication. So this is where it gets really excitingand where we find the five S's, the five evidence-based solutions for what doeswork.

所以，了解了這5種防御是如何阻止我們參與解決問題之后，我們怎樣才能沖破它們？新的研究告訴我們?nèi)绾伟堰@5種防御轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)槌晒Φ年P(guān)鍵標(biāo)準(zhǔn)，使得氣候傳播更能令人接受。所以這就是它令人感到激動之處，以及使我們找到5種解決辦法，5種基于證據(jù)的、可行的解決辦法。

07:40

First, we can flip distance to social. Wecan make climate feel near, personal and urgent by bringing it home, and we cando that by spreading social norms that are positive to solutions. If I believemy friends or neighbors, you guys, will do something, then I will, too. We cansee, for instance, this from rooftop solar panels. They are spreading fromneighbor to neighbor like a virus. It's contagious. This is the power ofpeer-to-peer creating the new normal.

首先，我們可以將距離轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)猷徖铩Ｍㄟ^把氣候問題帶回家，傳播有利于解決問題的社會規(guī)范，我們可以使氣候問題轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)樯磉叺?、個人的、急切的問題。如果我相信我的朋友們或是鄰居們，你們，將會采取行動，那么，我也會那么做。我們可以見證這一點，舉例而言，屋頂上的太陽能板。它們像病毒一樣，挨家挨戶傳播。它是具有感染力的。這種點對點的力量創(chuàng)造了一種新的態(tài)勢。

08:14

Next, we can flip doom to supportive.Rather than backfiring frames such as disaster and cost, we can reframe climateas being really about human health, for instance, with plant-based deliciousburgers, good for you and good for the climate. We can also reframe climate asbeing about new tech opportunities, about safety and about new jobs. Solarjobs, for instance, are seeing an amazing growth. They just passed the threemillion jobs mark. Psychology says, in order to create engagement, we shouldpresent, on balance, three positive or supportive framings for each climatethreat we mention.

其次，我們可以把災(zāi)難轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)橹С帧Ｅc其采用災(zāi)難、損失等事與愿違的定義，我們不如重新定義氣候，它是與人類健康息息相關(guān)的，比如，一個美味的蔬菜漢堡包，既有利于你的健康，又對氣候做貢獻(xiàn)。我們還可以重新定義氣候，將它與新技術(shù)機會聯(lián)系在一起，有關(guān)于安全以及新工作的新技術(shù)機會。舉例而言，有關(guān)太陽能的工作正在驚人地增長。它們超越了300萬個工作的記錄。心理學(xué)表明，為了使人們參與解決全球氣候變暖問題，總的來說，針對我們所提出的每一個氣候威脅，我們應(yīng)該列出 3個積極的或是支持性的定義。

09:01

Then we can flip dissonance to simpleractions. This is often called nudging. The idea is, by better choicearchitecture, we can make the climate-friendly behaviors default andconvenient. Let me illustrate this. Take food waste. Food waste at buffets goesway down if the plate or the box size is reduced a little, because on thesmaller plate it looks full but in the big box it looks half empty, so we putmore in. So smaller plates make a big difference for food waste. And there arehundreds of smart nudges like this. The point is, dissonance goes down as morebehaviors are nudged. Then we can flip denial by tailoring signals thatvisualize our progress. We can provide motivating feedback on how well we'redoing with our problem-solving. Say you improved your transport footprint orcut energy waste in your buildings. Then one app that can share this well iscalled Ducky. The idea is, you log your actions there, and then you can see howwell your team or company is doing, so you get real-time signals.

接著，我們可以將失調(diào)轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)楦唵蔚男袆印＿@通常被稱為助推。也就是說，通過更好的選擇架構(gòu)，我們可以更加方便地做出有利于改善氣候的行為。聽我來解釋。比如說浪費食物這一點。如果餐盤或是餐盒形狀變得小一點，那么宴會上食物浪費就會少一些，因為裝在小一些的盤子上，看起來更滿而裝在大餐盤里，看起來還有一半是空的，所以我們就往里面裝更多。因此，將餐盤變小對于食物浪費有著大作用。而且還有許多諸如此類的機智的助推。重點在于，隨著更多的行為得到助推，失調(diào)也就逐漸減少。之后，我們可以通過調(diào)整信號可視化我們所做的一切，轉(zhuǎn)變拒絕承認(rèn)。根據(jù)我們?yōu)榱私鉀Q問題所做的努力，我們可以提供積極的反饋。例如你改善了你的交通足跡或是減少了你所在建筑的能源浪費。那么，你可以在一個名為“Ducky”的手機應(yīng)用上分享你的行為。它的理念是，你在它上面記錄自己的行為，就可以看到你的團(tuán)隊或者公司的表現(xiàn)，所以你會得到實時信號。

10:19

Finally, identity. We can flip identitywith better stories. Our brain loves stories. So we need better stories ofwhere we all want to go, and we need more stories of the heroes and heroines ofall stripes that are making real change happen.

最后一點，認(rèn)同。我們可以利用美好的故事克服認(rèn)同。我們的大腦喜歡故事。所以我們需要更美好的、更多的故事，有關(guān)我們共同前進(jìn)方向的故事，有關(guān)各種帶來真正改變的英雄的故事。

10:40

I'm proud that my hometown of Oslo is nowembarking on a bold journey of electrifying all transport, whether cars, bikesor buses. One of the people spearheading this is Christina Bu. She is headingthe Electric Vehicle Association for years and she has been fighting every day.Now, the UK and France, India and China have also announced plans for endingthe sales of fossil cars. Now, that's massive. And in Oslo, we can see howenthusiastic EV owners go and tell their electric stories to friends andneighbors and bring them along. So we come full circle from story back tosocial.

我為我的家鄉(xiāng)奧斯陸感到自豪，奧斯陸正在展開一項大膽的活動，使所有的交通工具電動化，無論是汽車、自行車或是公交車?？死锼沟倌?middot;布是這項活動的帶頭人之一。她掌管電動車協(xié)會多年她每天都在努力。如今，英國、法國、印度以及中國都出臺了相關(guān)計劃停止銷售使用化石燃料的汽車?，F(xiàn)在，規(guī)模越來越大。在奧斯陸，我們可以看到電動汽車車主充滿熱情地向他們的朋友、鄰居奔走相告他們的電動故事 也將他們的朋友、鄰居帶上電動化之路。所以我們繞了一個圈又從故事回到鄰里。

11:26

So thousands of climate communicators arenow starting to use these solutions all over the world. It is clear, however,that individual solutions are not sufficient to solving climate alone, but theydo build stronger bottom-up support for policies and solutions that can. Thatis why engaging people is so crucial.

所以數(shù)千名氣候傳播者現(xiàn)在，在全世界 開始使用這些方法。我們明白光靠個人的力量去解決氣候問題 是遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)不夠的，但是他們確確實實為氣候相關(guān) 的政策制定和解決方法 提供了自下而上的支持?？梢娙藗兊膮⑴c是多么重要。

11:54

I started this talk with testing two waysof communicating climate with you. There is another way, too, I'd like to sharewith you. It starts with reimagining climate itself as the living air. Climateisn't really about some abstract, distant climate far, far away from us. It'sabout this air that surrounds us. This air, you can feel in this room, too, theair that moves right now in your nostrils. This air is our earth's skin. It'samazingly thin, compared to the size of the earth and the cosmos it shields usfrom, far thinner than the skin of an apple compared to its diameter. It maylook infinite when we look up, but the beautiful, breathable air is only likefive to seven miles thin, a fragile wrapping around a massive ball. Inside thisskin, we're all closely connected. The breath that you just took containedaround 400,000 of the same argon atoms that Gandhi breathed during hislifetime. Inside this thin, fluctuating, unsettled film, all of life isnourished, protected and held. It insulates and regulates temperatures in a rangethat is just right for water and for life as we know it, and mediating betweenthe blue ocean and black eternity, the clouds carry all the billions of tons ofwater needed for the soils. The air fills the rivers, stirs the waters, watersthe forests. With a global weirding of the weather, there are good reasons forfeeling fear and despair, yet we may first grieve today's sorry state andlosses and then turn to face the future with sober eyes and determination. Thenew psychology of climate action lies in letting go, not of science, but of thecrutches of abstractions and doomism, and then choosing to tell the newstories. These are the stories of how we achieve drawdown, the reversing ofglobal warming. These are the stories of the steps we take as peoples, cities,companies and public bodies in caring for the air in spite of strong headwinds.These are the stories of the steps we take because they ground us in what weare as humans: earthlings inside this living air.

在我開始演講的時候就兩種氣候傳播方式與你們進(jìn)行了實驗。還有另一種方式，我愿與你們分享。把氣候本身想象成身邊的空氣。氣候并不單純是抽象的，遙遠(yuǎn)的存在它并不是離我們非常遙遠(yuǎn)。它是環(huán)繞我們周圍的空氣。這空氣，你也可以在這個演播廳里感受得到，現(xiàn)在，這空氣在你的鼻孔里流動。這空氣是我們地球的皮膚。相比于地球的體積和在它的庇護(hù)下與我們隔離開的宇宙，它的厚度是如此的薄，遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)比一個蘋果表皮和果肉的直徑之比要薄得多。當(dāng)我們抬頭仰望，它顯得浩瀚無垠，但是這美麗的、可呼吸的空氣只存在于距離地面15到17英里的范圍內(nèi)，薄薄的一層包裹著一個巨大的地球。在地球的這層皮膚里，我們緊密相聯(lián)。你剛剛呼吸的那一口空氣，含有大約40萬個氬原子這也是甘地一生所呼吸的空氣。在這層稀薄的、不斷波動變化著的空氣里，所有的生命得到滋養(yǎng)、保護(hù)和支持。它隔絕和穩(wěn)定溫度，使之剛好維持在我們所了解的適合水和生命存在的范圍之內(nèi)，介于藍(lán)色海洋和無垠宇宙之間。云承載著土壤所需的幾十億噸的水?？諝庠炀土撕恿?，輕拂過海洋，澆灌著森林。由于全球氣候異常，我們當(dāng)然會感到害怕和失望，而我們可能首先會為今日的悲慘境地和損失感到悲傷，之后將以堅定的眼神和決心面對未來。新的氣候行為心理學(xué)在于摒棄那些抽象的概念和災(zāi)難論，而非科學(xué)理論，并且選擇去描繪新的故事。這些就是我們?nèi)绾螌崿F(xiàn)節(jié)能減排，反轉(zhuǎn)全球氣候變暖局面的故事。也是我們作為個人、城市、公司以及公共機構(gòu)，如何一步步地頂著巨大阻力，關(guān)心空氣的故事。這也是我們采取行動的故事因為這是我們之所以為人的基本：靠著這層新鮮的空氣生存的凡人。

14:49

Thank you.

謝謝。

14:50

(Applause)

（掌聲）