演講MP3+雙語文稿:我們要像跟蹤天氣一樣跟蹤世界的水

聽力課堂TED音頻欄目主要包括TED演講的音頻MP3及中英雙語文稿，供各位英語愛好者學習使用。本文主要內(nèi)容為演講MP3+雙語文稿:我們要像跟蹤天氣一樣跟蹤世界的水，希望你會喜歡！

【演講者及介紹】Sonaar Luthra

薩納爾·盧特拉, 水數(shù)據(jù)牧人。TED的同事Sonaar Luthra正在為水資源建立一個天氣服務，以幫助企業(yè)和社區(qū)管理21世紀的水資源風險。

【演講主題】我們需要像跟蹤天氣一樣跟蹤世界的水

【中英文字幕】

翻譯者 Shengmin Huang 校對者Yolanda Zhang

00:12

We need to build a weather service for water. Yet, until we collectively demand accountability, the incentives to fund it will not exist.

我們需要為水資源 建立一個氣象服務臺。 但在我們能夠 一致對此問責前， 它不具備成立的因素。

00:23

The first time I spoke at a conference was here at TED, eight years ago. Fresh out of grad school, little did I know that in those few minutes onstage, I was framing the questions I was going to be asked for the next decade. And, like too many 20-somethings, I expected to solve the world's problems -- more specifically, the world's water problems -- with my technology. I had a lot to learn.

八年前，我正是在TED平臺 發(fā)表了我的第一次公眾演講。 剛畢業(yè)的我未曾想到， 在臺上數(shù)分鐘內(nèi)羅列的問題， 我將用此后的十年時間 去作答。 而就像許多二十啷當歲的青年， 我期盼自己 能解決世界難題—— 具體來說， 是想用自己的技術 來解決全球水質問題。 我要學的東西還有很多。

00:50

It was seductive, believing that our biggest water quality problems persist because they're so hard to identify. And I presumed that we just needed simpler, faster and more affordable sensors. I was wrong. While it's true that managing tomorrow's water risk is going to require better data and more technology, today we're barely using the little water data that we have. Our biggest water problems persist because of what we don't do and the problems we fail to acknowledge. There's actually little question about what today's water data is telling us to do as a species: we need to conserve more, and we need to pollute less. But today's data is not going to help us forecast the emerging risks facing businesses and markets. It's rapidly becoming useless for that. It used to carry more value, but it's never actually told us with any real accuracy how much water we have or what's in it.

人們?nèi)菀紫嘈胚@么個論點： 最嚴峻的水質問題 依然攻克不下， 是因為水質鑒定非常困難。 我也曾以為 我們只要有了更簡單、更快捷、 更便宜的檢測器就夠了。 我錯了。 雖然我們確實需要 更好的數(shù)據(jù)與更高的技術 來為明日的水質做風險管理， 但今時今日我們都還不能夠 充分利用現(xiàn)有的為數(shù)不多的數(shù)據(jù)。 最嚴峻的水質問題依然攻克不下， 是因為有些事情我們沒有做到、 有些問題我們沒能察覺。 作為地球上的一個物種， 我們?nèi)祟惸軓默F(xiàn)有的 水質數(shù)據(jù)讀出的信息也很明確： 我們要節(jié)約環(huán)保， 我們要減少污染。 但是目前的水質數(shù)據(jù) 并不能幫助我們預測 即將來臨的面對商業(yè)與市場的風險。 目前的數(shù)據(jù)對此愈加一無是處。 此類數(shù)據(jù)在過去更具價值， 但它們從未準確地告訴過我們 具體的水量 或是水中的成份。

02:28

In 2015, Chennai, India's sixth-largest city, was hit with the worst floods it had seen in a century. Today, its water reservoirs are nearly dry. It took three years to get here, three years of subaverage rainfall. Now, that's faster than most nations tabulate their national water data, including the US. And although there were forecasts that predicted severe shortages of water in Chennai, none of them could actually help us pinpoint exactly when or where this was going to happen. This is a new type of water problem, because the rate at which every aspect of our water cycle changes is accelerating. As a recent UN warning this month revealed, we are now facing one new climate emergency every single week.

2015年，印度的第六大城市，金奈， 遭受了百年來 最嚴重的洪水襲擊。 而今天，那里的水庫幾近干枯。 僅三年，降雨量低于平均值的三年， 就成了這幅光景。 大多數(shù)國家，包括美國， 將全國水資源數(shù)據(jù)收集制表的速度 都跟不上這樣的干枯速度。 而且雖然有過幾次 對金奈市水資源短缺的預報， 但它們無一明確指明水資源短缺 會在何時何地發(fā)生。 這是一類新的水資源問題， 因為水循環(huán)的各個環(huán)節(jié) 都在加速變化。 正如近期聯(lián)合國 在本月警告所示， 我們每一周都面臨著 一個新的氣候危況。

03:26

There are greater uncertainties ahead for water quality. It's rare in most countries for most water bodies to be tested for more than a handful of contaminants in a year. Instead of testing, we use what's called the "dilution model" to manage pollution. Now, imagine I took an Olympic-sized swimming pool, I filled it with fresh water and I added one drop of mercury. That would dilute down to one part per billion mercury, which is well within what the World Health Organization considers safe. But if there was any unforeseen drop in how much water was available -- less groundwater, less stream flow, less water in the pool -- less dilution would take place, and things would get more toxic. So this is how most countries are managing pollution. They use this model to tell them how much pollution is safe. And it has clear weaknesses, but it worked well enough when we had abundant water and consistent weather patterns. Now that we don't, we're going to need to invest and develop new data-collection strategies. But before we do that, we have to start acting on the data we already have.

在水質方面存在著更大的不確定性。 絕大多數(shù)國家在一年內(nèi) 對國內(nèi)大部分水體 進行污染物檢測的次數(shù)屈指可數(shù)。 我們現(xiàn)在用于污染管控 的方式不是檢測， 而是一種名為“稀釋模型”的方法。 試想在一個奧運規(guī)格的泳池內(nèi) 注水，并加入一滴水銀。 這能將水銀稀釋至十億分之一， 也就是在世界衛(wèi)生組織看來 算是安全的程度。 但如果有這么一滴未被察覺到 的水銀滴入地下水含量更少、 流量更弱、 水量更少的游泳池中， 稀釋效果就會更弱， 水里的毒性就會更強。 而這就是大多數(shù)國家 的污染管理之道。 他們用這個模型告訴人們 什么程度的污染能算安全。 這種方法有著明顯的缺陷， 但它在水源充足 與氣象規(guī)律穩(wěn)定的條件下 還是能夠達到目的。 可現(xiàn)在，條件不允許了， 我們需要投資開發(fā) 全新的數(shù)據(jù)收集方案。 但在我們開始實施前， 我們得從已有的數(shù)據(jù)著手。

04:34

As many of you may be aware, jet fuel emissions play an enormous role in climate change. What you might not be aware of is that the US Department of Defense is the world's largest consumer of jet fuel. And when they consume jet fuel, they mandate the use of the firefighting foam pictured here, which contains a class of chemicals called PFAS. Nobody uses more of this foam than the US Department of Defense, and every time it's used, PFAS finds its way into our water systems. Globally, militaries have been using this foam since the 1970s. We know PFAS causes cancer, birth defects, and it's now so pervasive in the environment that we seem to find it in nearly every living thing we test, including us. But so far, the US Department of Defense has not been held accountable for PFAS contamination, nor has it been held liable. And although there's an effort underway to phase out these firefighting foams, they're not embracing safer, effective alternatives. They're actually using other PFAS molecules, which may, for all we know, carry worse health consequences.

正如你們許多人所知， 航空燃油排放對氣候變化 有著相當程度的影響。 但不為你們所知的是， 美國國防部 正是全球最大的 航空燃油購買方。 在購買航空燃油的同時， 他們還允許使用 圖片所示的消防泡沫， 這種泡沫里含有一類叫做PFAS （全氟烷基磺酸鹽 ）的化學成分。 在這種消防泡沫的用量上 美國國防部無人能及， 而且每次使用，PFAS都會 以某種方式進入供水系統(tǒng)。 全球各國軍隊從20世紀70年代起 就開始使用這種消防泡沫了。 我們知道PFAS會導致 癌癥、先天性缺陷， 而現(xiàn)在它們在環(huán)境中遍布之廣， 我們幾乎能在 所有生物測試對象中檢測到它們， 包括人體。 但是到目前為止，還沒人 就PFAS污染一事 向美國國防部問責， 國防部也從未表示過要對此負責。 盡管當局正致力于 逐步淘汰這些滅火泡沫， 但他們并未采用更安全， 更有效的替代方法。 他們實際采用的是 其它的PFAS分子， 就我們所知，這可能會招致 更嚴重的健康問題。

05:49

So today, government accountability is eroding to the point of elimination, and the risk of liability from water pollution is vanishing. What types of incentives does this create for investing in our water future? Over the past decade, the average early stage global investment in early stage water technology companies has totaled less than 30 million dollars every year. That's 0.12 percent of global venture capital for early stage companies. And public spending is not going up nearly fast enough. And a closer look at it reveals that water is not a priority. In 2014, the US federal government was spending 11 dollars per citizen on water infrastructure, versus 251 dollars on IT infrastructure. So when we don't use the data we have, we don't encourage investment in new technologies, we don't encourage more data collection and we certainly don't encourage investment in securing a water future.

時至今日，政府問責機制 日漸淡化，形同虛設， 這樣政府對水質污染擔責 的風險也就越來越小了。 這會對我們給水資源的未來做投資 產(chǎn)生什么樣的激勵？ 在過去的十年里，全球每年針對 一眾處于早期階段的 水資源相關科技公司 的初期平均投資 總數(shù)不及三千萬美元。 在對全球初期公司的 風險投資里占0.12% 而且公共支出的 增長速度也遠跟不上。 再一細看就會發(fā)現(xiàn)水資源 并非人們優(yōu)先考慮的問題。 2014年，美國聯(lián)邦政府 在供水的基礎設施上 為每個公民花費了11美元， 而在信息技術的基礎設施上 花費了251美元。 所以如果我們不能 擅用我們現(xiàn)有的數(shù)據(jù)， 我們就沒法鼓勵人們?yōu)樾录夹g投資， 沒法鼓勵人們收集更多的數(shù)據(jù) 自然也沒法鼓勵人們 為未來的水質安全投資。

07:02

So are we doomed? Part of what I'm still learning is how to balance the doom and the urgency with things we can do, because Greta Thunberg and the Extinction Rebellion don't want our hope -- they want us to act.

人類就這樣毀了？ 我目前正研究的其中一個問題， 是如何物盡其用 在毀滅與危急狀態(tài)間做平衡， 因為格雷塔·圖恩伯格 與“反抗滅絕”組織需要的 不是我們的期許， 他們要的是我們的行動。

07:17

So what can we do? It's hard to imagine life without a weather service, but before modern weather forecasting, we had no commercial air travel, it was common for ships to be lost at sea, and a single storm could produce a food shortage. Once we had radio and telegraph networks, all that was necessary to solve these problems was tracking the movement of storms. And that laid the foundation for a global data collection effort, one that every household and every business depends upon today. And this was as much the result of coordinated and consistent data collection as it was the result of producing a culture that saw greater value in openly assessing and sharing everything that it could find out and discover about the risks we face.

那么我們能做什么？ 沒有氣象臺的生活是難以想象的， 但在現(xiàn)代氣象預測技術出現(xiàn)之前， 我們是沒有商務航空的， 船舶在海洋中迷失屢見不鮮， 光一場風暴 就能造成食物短缺。 而在我們發(fā)明了無線電與電報網(wǎng)絡后， 我們僅需要跟蹤著風暴的動態(tài)， 這些問題就迎刃而解了。 這也為全球數(shù)據(jù)收集 成為當今家家戶戶、 各行各業(yè)都用得上的技術 奠定了基礎。 能夠創(chuàng)造一種更重視公開評定， 并在面對危機時能就其 所知所見知無不言的文化， 和能夠使用相互協(xié)調(diào)、 持續(xù)產(chǎn)生的數(shù)據(jù) 所帶來的結果同樣重要。

08:13

A global weather service for water would help us forecast water shortages. It could help us implement rationing well before reservoirs run dry. It could help us detect contamination before it spreads. It could protect our supply chains, secure our food supplies, and, perhaps most importantly, it would enable the precise estimation of risk necessary to insure against it.

建立一個水資源的全球氣象服務臺 能幫助我們預測水資源短缺； 能幫助我們在水庫枯竭之前 就實施定量配給； 能幫助我們在污染擴散之前 就可將其檢測出來； 還能保護我們的供應鏈， 為我們的食品供應把關， 也許最重要的是， 這能精確評估風險， 從而確定必須承擔的責任。

08:40

We know we can do this because we've already done it with weather. But it's going to require resources. We need to encourage greater investment in water. Investors, venture capitalists: a portion of your funds and portfolios should be dedicated to water. Nothing is more valuable and, after all, businesses are going to need to understand water risks in order to remain competitive in the world we are entering. Aside from venture capital, there are also lots of promising government programs that encourage economic development through tax incentives.

我們知道這些事情能實現(xiàn)， 因為我們已經(jīng)實現(xiàn)了氣象跟蹤。 但這會對資源有要求。 我們得鼓勵更多的 對水資源的投資。 投資者們，風險投資家們： 在你們的資金與投資組合中 應該要有一部分用于水資源。 沒有什么比這更有價值的了， 畢竟，企業(yè)也需要去 了解水資源的風險， 以在今后所處的世界里 保持競爭力。 除了風險投資外， 還有許多有前景的政府計劃 通過稅收優(yōu)惠鼓勵經(jīng)濟發(fā)展。

09:14

A new option in the US that my company is using is called "opportunity zones." They offer favorable tax treatment for investing capital gains in designated distressed and low-income areas. Now, these are areas that are also facing staggering water risk, so this creates crucial incentives to work directly with the communities who need help most.

我們公司正在使用一個叫 “機會區(qū)”的美國新政。 美國政府對投資在指定的 貧困地區(qū)和低收入地區(qū) 所獲的資金收益 提供優(yōu)惠的稅收待遇。 要知道，正是這些地區(qū) 面臨著巨大的水資源風險， 因此這類政策對 “直接致力于最需要幫助的社區(qū)” 有著關鍵性的激勵作用。

09:36

And if you're not looking to make this type of investment but you own land in the US, did you know that you can leverage your land to conserve water quality permanently with a conservation easement? You can assign the perpetual right to a local land trust to conserve your land and set specific water quality goals. And if you meet those goals, you can be rewarded with a substantial tax discount every year.

如果你尚未著眼于此類投資 但在美國擁有土地， 你是否知道你能通過‘保育地役權’ 為你的土地獲得 永久性的水質保護？ 你可以將這項永久性權利 分配給本地土地信托 從而保護你的土地， 并為水質制定特定的目標。 如果你能達成這些目標， 你就能每年獲得大幅稅收優(yōu)惠。

10:06

How many areas could our global community protect through these and other programs? They're powerful because they offer the access to real property necessary to lay the foundation for a global weather service for water. But this can only work if we use these programs as they are intended and not as mere vehicles for tax evasion. When the conservation easement was established, nobody could anticipate how ingrained in environmental movements corporate polluters would become. And we've become accustomed to companies talking about the climate crisis while doing nothing about it. This has undermined the legacy and the impact of these programs, but it also makes them ripe for reclamation. Why not use conservation easements as they were intended, to set and reach ambitious conservation goals? Why not create opportunities in opportunity zones? Because fundamentally, water security requires accountability. Accountability is not corporate polluters sponsoring environmental groups and museums. Those are conflicts of interest.

有多少區(qū)域能在 這樣與那樣的計劃下 受到我們?nèi)蛏鐓^(qū)的保護？ 這些計劃之所以有影響力， 是因為它們提供了 為“全球水資源氣象服務臺”奠定基礎 所不可或缺的地產(chǎn)的獲取方式。 但要達成目的，我們必須 遵循這些計劃的本意， 而非僅僅將其用作為避稅工具。 在“保育地役權”設立之初， 沒人能預料到 企業(yè)對環(huán)境的污染 會變得如此積重難返。 我們已經(jīng)習慣了聽企業(yè) 一邊拿氣候危機說事， 一邊卻對此無所作為。 這樣的狀況已經(jīng)削弱了那些政府 計劃的成效與影響， 但也令各式計劃遍地開花。 為何不貫徹“保育地役權”的本意， 以設立并實現(xiàn)偉大的環(huán)保目標？ 為何不在"機會區(qū)"內(nèi)創(chuàng)造機會？ 因為根本問題在于， 需要有人為水質安全負責。 負責不是指讓污染排放企業(yè) 給環(huán)境組織 和博物館投錢。 那些是利益沖突。

11:24

（Applause）

（掌聲）

11:30

Accountability is: making the risk of liability too expensive to continue polluting and wasting our water. We can't keep settling for words. It's time to act. And where better to start than with our biggest polluters, particularly the US Department of Defense, which is taxpayer-funded. Who and what are we protecting when US soldiers, their families and the people who live near US military bases abroad are all drinking toxic water? Global security can no longer remain at odds with protecting our planet or our collective health. Our survival depends on it.

負責是指： 讓承擔責任的風險昂貴之極， 從而不敢繼續(xù)污染和浪費我們的水。 我們不能再滿足于口頭承諾。 是時候付諸行動了。 既然要行動，就得從我們 最大的污染排放者, 也就是由納稅人供養(yǎng)的 美國國防部開始。 當美軍士兵、士兵的家人、 以及那些生活在 海外美國軍事基地一帶的人 都喝著毒水時， 究竟是誰在保護誰？ 全球安定不再與保護地球 或是集體健康相沖突。 人類存亡決定于此。

12:11

Similarly, agriculture in most countries depends on taxpayer-funded subsidies that are paid to farmers to secure and stabilize food supplies. These incentives are a crucial leverage point for us, because agriculture is responsible for consuming 70 percent of all the water we use every year. Fertilizer and pesticide runoff are the two biggest sources of water pollution. Let's restructure these subsidies to demand better water efficiency and less pollution.

與之相同， 大多數(shù)國家的農(nóng)業(yè)都仰賴 來自納稅人的稅款中 分給農(nóng)民用來確保食物 供應安全穩(wěn)定的津貼。 這樣的激勵措施對我們而言 是關鍵性的發(fā)力點， 因為農(nóng)業(yè)消耗的水資源 占水資源消耗總量的70% 化肥與農(nóng)藥徑流入水 是兩項最大的水污染源。 讓我們通過調(diào)整這類補貼 來要求更高效的用水方式 和更少的污染。

12:45

（Applause）

（掌聲）

12:50

Finally: we can't expect progress if we're unwilling to confront the conflicts of interest that suppress science, that undermine innovation and that discourage transparency. It is in the public interest to measure and to share everything we can learn and discover about the risks we face in water. Reality does not exist until it's measured. It doesn't just take technology to measure it. It takes our collective will.

最后： 如果利益沖突 抑制了科學、阻礙了創(chuàng)新、 還降低了透明度， 而我們卻不去正視這些沖突， 我們就不能指望事態(tài)會有進展。 將我們在水資源方面 研究與發(fā)現(xiàn)到的一切風險 進行測量并分享， 是符合大眾利益的。 未經(jīng)測量的事實是不成立的。 要想測量，不能光靠技術， 還得靠我們的集體意志。

13:21

Thank you.

謝謝。

13:22

（Applause）

（掌聲）