劉文勇GRE寫(xiě)作Argument題庫(kù) Day 3

Day 3 Over the past two years, the number of shoppers in Central Plaza has been steadily decreasing

The following appeared as a letter to the editor from a Central Plaza store owner.

“Over the past two years, the number of shoppers in Central Plaza has been steadily decreasing while the popularity of skateboarding has increased dramatically. Many Central Plaza store owners believe that the decrease in their business is due to the number of skateboard users in the plaza. There has also been a dramatic increase in the amount of litter and vandalism throughout the plaza. Thus, we recommend that the city prohibit skateboarding in Central Plaza. If skateboarding is prohibited here, we predict that business in Central Plaza will return to its previously high levels.”

Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation is likely to have the predicted result. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.

五問(wèn)：

（1）“Over the past two years, the number of shoppers in Central Plaza has been steadily decreasing while the popularity of skateboarding has increased dramatically. Many Central Plaza store owners believe that the decrease in their business is due to the number of skateboard users in the plaza. There has also been a dramatic increase in the amount of litter and vandalism throughout the plaza”是事實(shí)， “Thus, we recommend that the city prohibit skateboarding in Central Plaza”是結(jié)論，值得反駁嗎？

（2）顧客的減少與滑板運(yùn)動(dòng)的流行一定有直接的因果關(guān)系嗎？（你能否想出無(wú)因果關(guān)系或者因果關(guān)系倒置的情況？例如：廣場(chǎng)內(nèi)無(wú)人玩滑板，顧客就不會(huì)減少了嗎？或者因?yàn)轭櫩蜏p少了，來(lái)廣場(chǎng)的人少了，所以有更大空間來(lái)玩滑板了，才導(dǎo)致滑板運(yùn)動(dòng)流行。）即便真的有因果關(guān)系，那它一定是唯一的原因嗎？（你能否想出其他的原因？例如：廣場(chǎng)的商品質(zhì)量下降，服務(wù)水平降低等）一定是最重要的原因嗎？

（3）亂丟垃圾和損壞公共財(cái)產(chǎn)的現(xiàn)象大幅增加與滑板運(yùn)動(dòng)者有關(guān)系嗎？是唯一的原因嗎？是最重要的原因嗎？可能還有其他因素，例如，廣場(chǎng)上的其他戶外運(yùn)動(dòng)者或來(lái)購(gòu)物的顧客。

（4）禁止玩滑板的壞處是什么？是否可能導(dǎo)致顧客更少？也許有些人是因?yàn)閺V場(chǎng)可以玩滑板才順便來(lái)這購(gòu)物的呢？

（5）即便一切都如建議者所愿，是否可能有其他原因?qū)е逻@個(gè)廣場(chǎng)難以恢復(fù)原有的繁華程度？你能羅列一兩個(gè)原因嗎？例如：廣場(chǎng)設(shè)施陳舊，無(wú)法進(jìn)行正常商業(yè)活動(dòng)；市民素質(zhì)較低，商場(chǎng)保安人員又不足；由于經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退，人們本身就不太愿意消費(fèi)；或者商場(chǎng)之間競(jìng)爭(zhēng)激烈，導(dǎo)致該商場(chǎng)購(gòu)物人數(shù)下降等。