劉文勇GRE寫作Argument題庫 Day 5

Day 5 On Balmer Island, where mopeds serve as a popular form, the population increases to 100,000 during the summer months

The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Balmer Island Gazette.

“On Balmer Island, where mopeds serve as a popular form of transportation, the population increases to 100,000 during the summer months. To reduce the number of accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians, the town council of Balmer Island should limit the number of mopeds rented by the island's moped rental companies from 50 per day to 25 per day during the summer season. By limiting the number of rentals, the town council will attain the 50 percent annual reduction in moped accidents that was achieved last year on the neighboring island of Seaville, when Seaville's town council enforced similar limits on moped rentals.”

Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation is likely to have the predicted result. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.

五問：

（1）“On Balmer Island, where mopeds serve as a popular form of transportation, the population increases to 100,000 during the summer months”是事實，“To reduce the number of accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians, the town council of Balmer Island should limit the number of mopeds rented by the island's moped rental companies from 50 per day to 25 per day during the summer season”是結論，值得反駁嗎？

（2）事故必定都是由“ moped”這種交通工具引發(fā)的嗎？行人是否也有可能造成交通事故？例如：行人不遵守交通規(guī)則、注意力不集中等。這種交通工具一定都來自租車公司嗎？是否有可能私家擁有？

（3）減少“ moped”出租的數(shù)量一定會減少事故的發(fā)生嗎？是否有可能造成更多的事故？請列出可能的原因。例如：出租數(shù)量減少可能導致私家車數(shù)量增加，依舊造成很多的事故。即便減少出租的數(shù)量真的能減少事故發(fā)生量，我們能確定是同比例的減少嗎？是否考慮到了其他可能的因素？人口增加的比例一定嗎？

（4）只針對夏季的政府政策，真的能對全年都產(chǎn)生影響嗎？個體的特質適用于集體嗎 ?

（5）臨近地區(qū)和本地的情況是完全一樣的嗎？你能否羅列幾個本地和其他地區(qū)可能不一樣的因素？例如：兩地人口數(shù)量上的差異，兩地地貌、路況上的區(qū)別，司機駕駛技術、安全意識的差別。