劉文勇GRE寫作Argument題庫(kù) Day 13

Day 13 In an attempt to improve highway safety, Prunty County last year lowered its speed limit from 55 to 45 miles per hour on all county highways

In an attempt to improve highway safety, Prunty County last year lowered its speed limit from 55 to 45 miles per hour on all county highways. But this effort has failed: the number of accidents has not decreased, and, based on reports by the highway patrol, many drivers are exceeding the speed limit. Prunty County should instead undertake the same kind of road improvement project that Butler County completed five years ago: increasing lane widths, resurfacing rough highways, and improving visibility at dangerous intersections. Today, major Butler County roads still have a 55 mph speed limit, yet there were 25 percent fewer reported accidents in Butler County this past year than there were five years ago.

Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.

五問：

（1）“Prunty County should instead undertake the same kind of road improvement project that Butler County completed five years ago: increasing lane widths, resurfacing rough highways, and improving visibility at dangerous intersections”是結(jié)論，其余部分是事實(shí)，需要反駁嗎？

（2）本題是一道對(duì)比類的題目。我們應(yīng)當(dāng)問自己的第一個(gè)問題是：這兩個(gè)地區(qū)可以用于比較嗎？ Butler County通過改善道路設(shè)施減少了交通事故的發(fā)生，那么 Prunty County可以通過采取同樣的措施達(dá)到同樣的目的嗎？除了各自的高速路安全政策不同之外，兩個(gè)地區(qū)的其他條件全都是一模一樣的嗎？如果不是，哪些條件會(huì)影響各自道路交通的安全情況？會(huì)得出怎樣不同的結(jié)論？例如：車輛數(shù)量多、市民遵守交通規(guī)則的意識(shí)差等都可能導(dǎo)致交通事故的發(fā)生。

（3）Prunty County事故數(shù)量沒有下降的原因有哪些？一定是因?yàn)樗緳C(jī)超速嗎？你能否想出其他原因？比如：酒駕、行人違反交通規(guī)則等。限速令實(shí)行短短一年的效果能代表這個(gè)政策的實(shí)際最終效果嗎？有說服力嗎？

（4）本題中提供了高速公路巡邏隊(duì)的事故報(bào)告。巡邏隊(duì)所看到的情況，一定能夠代表所有情況嗎？他們是否更有可能只看到某種特殊情況，并因此有失公正？ Butler County所采取的措施是五年前的措施；五年前的特點(diǎn)跟現(xiàn)在的一定是一樣的嗎？適合五年前的特點(diǎn)，一定適合現(xiàn)在嗎？ Butler County在五年前采取的措施，為何到去年才產(chǎn)生效果？是否犯了時(shí)間軸論證錯(cuò)誤？措施和效果之間的因果關(guān)系唯一嗎？ Butler County是否可能還采取了其他措施，從而減少了事故？例如：加大全民交通安全教育，完善交通安全管理和監(jiān)督機(jī)制，提高車輛質(zhì)量等。

（5）數(shù)字與百分比能夠直接等價(jià)嗎？在沒有絕對(duì)事故數(shù)的前提下， Butler County的事故率下降了 25%能說明問題嗎？如果交通流量減少了，那 25%的事故下降率具有實(shí)際意義嗎？