劉文勇GRE寫作Argument題庫 Day 19

Day 19 Two years ago, radio station WCQP in Rockville decided to increase the number of call-in advice programs that it broadcast

Two years ago, radio station WCQP in Rockville decided to increase the number of call-in advice programs that it broadcast; since that time, its share of the radio audience in the Rockville listening area has increased significantly. Given WCQP's recent success with call-in advice programming, and citing a nationwide survey indicating that many radio listeners are quite interested in such programs, the station manager of KICK in Medway recommends that KICK include more call-in advice programs in an attempt to gain a larger audience share in its listening area.

Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.

五問：

（1）“Two years ago, radio station WCQP in Rockville decided to increase the number of call-in advice programs that it broadcast; since that time, its share of the radio audience in the Rockville listening area has increased significantly”和“a nationwide survey indicating that many radio listeners are quite interested in such programs”是事實， “the station manager of KICK in Medway recommends that KICK include more call-in advice programs in an attempt to gain a larger audience share in its listening area”是結論，值得反駁嗎？

（2）當我們將兩個事物（本題為兩個不同地區(qū)的電臺）進行類比時，是否應該辨認兩者之間可能不同的特質有哪些？例如：兩個地區(qū)的聽眾的喜好是否一樣。這些特質是否能夠直接用于類比？電話咨詢節(jié)目在 Rockville受歡迎，就表明它也適用于 Medway嗎？如果 Medway的聽眾恰好討厭電話咨詢節(jié)目呢？

（3）調查研究是可信的嗎？一個全國性的調查研究能夠用于本地的電臺決策嗎？當?shù)氐牧曀资欠窨赡軐е侣牨娏晳T與其他地方不同？這是一個典型的由整體特征簡單地推導出部分特征的邏輯錯誤。

（4）兩年前的策略現(xiàn)在還適用嗎？是否有可能電話咨詢節(jié)目現(xiàn)在已經(jīng)被新的流行取代了呢？

（5）我們能否簡單地認為，WCQP電臺的聽眾增長一定是因為某種策略嗎？一定只因為某種策略嗎？最重要的原因一定是某種策略嗎？有沒有可能是因為該電臺加大了宣傳力度，或者換了一些更優(yōu)秀的主持人？