The following was written as a part of an application for a small-business loan by a group of developers in the city of Monroe.
“A jazz music club in Monroe would be a tremendously profitable enterprise. Currently, the nearest jazz club is 65 miles away; thus, the proposed new jazz club in Monroe, the C-Note, would have the local market all to itself. Plus, jazz is extremely popular in Monroe: over 100,000 people attended Monroe's annual jazz festival last summer; several well-known jazz musicians live in Monroe; and the highest-rated radio program in Monroe is ‘Jazz Nightly’, which airs every weeknight at 7 P.M. Finally, a nationwide study indicates that the typical jazz fan spends close to $1,000 per year on jazz entertainment.”
Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.
五問:
(1)“Currently, the nearest jazz club is 65 miles away”和“over 100,000 people attended Monroe's annual jazz festival last summer; several well-known jazz musicians live in Monroe; and the highest-rated radio program in Monroe is ‘Jazz Nightly’, which airs every weeknight at 7 P.M. Finally, a nationwide study indicates that the typical jazz fan spends close to $1,000 per year on jazz entertainment”是事實, “A jazz music club in Monroe would be a tremendously profitable enterprise”是結(jié)論,值得反駁嗎?
(2)當前最近的爵士俱樂部在 65英里遠,這是為什么?是否有這樣的可能性,就是當?shù)厝瞬⒉幌矚g,或者并沒有孕育出能讓爵士酒吧生存下去的市場?另外,原文有沒有給出足夠的信息來評判 65英里對于當?shù)厝藖碚f是否足夠遠?當?shù)厝鄙?jazz club就意味著新開的 C-Note一定會受歡迎嗎?其他因素,例如價格、服務水平等,都會影響人們的決定。
(3)有超過十萬人參加當?shù)孛磕暌欢鹊木羰恳魳饭?jié),是否就意味著他們一定很喜歡爵士樂?這些人一定是當?shù)厝藛??一些著名的爵士樂手住在當?shù)兀@會增加還是減少當?shù)厝巳ゾ羰烤瓢傻母怕剩?/p>
(4)當?shù)刈钍軞g迎的廣播節(jié)目與爵士樂相關,是否就意味著這里的人們一定很喜歡爵士樂?還有其他哪些因素會影響一個廣播節(jié)目受歡迎的程度?比如,節(jié)目的播出時間就極其重要。
(5)原文最后給出了一個全國范圍的調(diào)查,但這個調(diào)查結(jié)果一定適用于當?shù)貑??集體特點一定適用于個體嗎?樂迷每年花費的 1 000美元一定是用在 jazz club上嗎?這筆錢也可能用于買唱片、買演唱會門票等。另外,有市場就一定會盈利嗎?酒吧的運營、管理等都會對盈利與否造成影響。