“貿(mào)易壁壘并未影響全球貿(mào)易”

A sharply rising number of attempts to block imports has led to a much smaller increase in actual tariffs and affected only a limited share of global trade, according to World Bank research.

世界銀行(World Bank)的研究顯示，雖然限制進(jìn)口的企圖激增，但實(shí)際導(dǎo)致提高關(guān)稅的情況卻少得多，只影響到全球貿(mào)易中有限的一部分。

The latest results from the Global Antidumping Database, a monitoring service sponsored by the bank, show the number of new official investigations into imposing so-called “trade remedies” – emergency blocks on imports – rising sharply in the third quarter of 2009. Investigations are opened at the behest of domestic producers seeking relief from cheap imports.

世界銀行資助的監(jiān)督服務(wù)——全球反傾銷數(shù)據(jù)庫(kù)(Global Antidumping Database)的最新研究結(jié)果顯示，2009年第三季度，各國(guó)為實(shí)施所謂的“貿(mào)易救濟(jì)措施”（對(duì)進(jìn)口實(shí)施緊急限制）而新展開的正式調(diào)查數(shù)量急劇增加。調(diào)查是應(yīng)本土制造商的要求而展開的，這些制造商試圖減輕廉價(jià)進(jìn)口商品的沖擊。

The political salience of import curbs has risen recently after US President Barack Obama provoked a hailstorm of criticism by imposing so-called “safeguard” restrictions on Chinese tyres.

不久前，美國(guó)總統(tǒng)巴拉克•奧巴馬(Barack Obama)對(duì)中國(guó)輪胎實(shí)施所謂的“特保”限制措施，由此招致各方強(qiáng)烈批評(píng)。此后，進(jìn)口限制的政治顯著性有所提升。

But separate research by the bank suggests that the rise in trade barriers has so far affected only a small part of global commerce. New remedies proposed between the first quarter of 2008 and the first quarter of 2009 covered just 0.4 per cent of the value of imports to the US and the EU. Even the investigations started by China and India, two of the heaviest users of trade remedies, would affect at most 0.6 per cent and 1.8 per cent respectively of their imports.

但世界銀行進(jìn)行的另一項(xiàng)研究顯示，迄今為止，貿(mào)易壁壘的提高僅僅影響了很小一部分全球貿(mào)易。2008年第一季度至2009年第一季度之間新提議的貿(mào)易救濟(jì)措施，僅覆蓋了美國(guó)和歐盟進(jìn)口額的0.4%。即使是由中國(guó)和印度啟動(dòng)的調(diào)查，也最多只會(huì)分別影響兩國(guó)0.6%和1.8%的進(jìn)口。中國(guó)和印度是使用貿(mào)易救濟(jì)措施最頻繁的兩個(gè)國(guó)家。

The figures suggest that despite a flurry of actual and proposed emergency blocks on imports – in defiance of promises by the Group of 20 leading economies to eschew protectionist actions – the restrictions are having little effect on trade.

數(shù)據(jù)顯示，盡管一些國(guó)家無(wú)視20國(guó)集團(tuán)(G20)在避免保護(hù)主義行動(dòng)方面的承諾，大批出臺(tái)對(duì)進(jìn)口產(chǎn)品施行緊急限制的實(shí)際舉措或提議，但這些限制措施對(duì)貿(mào)易的影響很小。

After starting an investigation into whether imports are being dumped, illicitly subsidised or are simply flooding in at a rate that threatens domestic industry, governments typically impose full restrictions on imports 12-18 months later. The 44 new investigations in the third quarter, a 53 per cent increase on the same quarter in 2008, would normally suggest a wave of restrictions to come next year.

一旦啟動(dòng)調(diào)查進(jìn)口商品是否正被傾銷、獲得非法補(bǔ)貼，或只是大舉涌入的速度對(duì)本國(guó)產(chǎn)業(yè)構(gòu)成威脅，各國(guó)政府一般會(huì)在12至18個(gè)月后對(duì)進(jìn)口產(chǎn)品實(shí)施全面限制。今年第三季度，全球共啟動(dòng)了44宗新調(diào)查，較2008年同期有53%的增長(zhǎng)，這通常會(huì)表明，明年會(huì)出現(xiàn)一波限制措施。