市場(chǎng)押注富國(guó)政府債券違約

The mounting level of debt in the industrialised world is prompting a growing number of investors to use the derivatives market to bet on the chance of rich governments defaulting on bonds.

發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家不斷增長(zhǎng)的債務(wù)水平，正促使越來(lái)越多的投資者通過(guò)衍生品市場(chǎng)，押注于富國(guó)政府債券違約的可能性。

The volume of activity in sovereign credit default swaps – which measure the cost to insure against bond defaults – linked to the US, UK and Japan have doubled in the past year due to concerns about their public finances.

過(guò)去一年，與美國(guó)、英國(guó)和日本相關(guān)的主權(quán)信貸違約互換（衡量對(duì)象是債券違約擔(dān)保成本）的成交量增長(zhǎng)了一倍，原因在于市場(chǎng)擔(dān)憂這些國(guó)家的公共財(cái)政狀況。

CDS volumes for Italy, which has one of the highest debt burdens of the developed economies, are now the highest for an individual country, according to the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation.

根據(jù)美國(guó)存托和清算公司(Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation)的數(shù)據(jù)，以國(guó)別計(jì)算，目前意大利信貸違約互換(CDS)的成交量最高，該國(guó)是發(fā)達(dá)經(jīng)濟(jì)體中債務(wù)負(fù)擔(dān)最大的國(guó)家之一。

In contrast, the outstanding volume of CDS linked to emerging nations such as Russia, Brazil, Ukraine and Indonesia have been flat or fallen in the past 12 months as investors have become less interested in trading the risks of those countries.

相比之下，過(guò)去12個(gè)月，與俄羅斯、巴西、烏克蘭和印度尼西亞相關(guān)的CDS交易量持平或有所下降，因?yàn)橥顿Y者對(duì)于交易這些國(guó)家風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的興趣有所減弱。

In the past, the CDS market for developed countries was sluggish, because few investors saw the need to buy or sell protection against a risk of default that seemed exceedingly remote.

以往，發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家CDS市場(chǎng)較為蕭條，因?yàn)閹缀鯖](méi)有投資者認(rèn)為，自己有必要購(gòu)買(mǎi)或出售針對(duì)一種可能性極小的違約的保險(xiǎn)。

However, rising debt levels and growing political and economic uncertainty has created a more active market, with more investors now seeking insurance. Meanwhile, many banks are prepared to offer protection in exchange for a fee.

然而，債務(wù)水平的不斷上升，以及政治和經(jīng)濟(jì)方面越來(lái)越大的不確定性，使得市場(chǎng)活躍起來(lái)，目前有更多的投資者尋求保險(xiǎn)。與此同時(shí)，許多銀行準(zhǔn)備提供這種保險(xiǎn)以賺取費(fèi)用。

This fee has recently jumped, since the cost to insure the debt of developed countries has increased since the summer of last year, while the cost of insuring emerging market debt has fallen.

近來(lái)這種費(fèi)用大幅飆升，原因是自去年夏季以來(lái)，針對(duì)發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家債務(wù)的保險(xiǎn)成本有所上升，而針對(duì)新興市場(chǎng)債務(wù)的保險(xiǎn)成本有所下降。

譯者/懷川