美元昨日跌至近16個月低點

The dollar tumbled to near 16-month lows yesterday as traders took comments from a number of central bankers as a green light to continue dumping the currency and to use it as a funding tool to buy other assets.

美元昨日跌至近16個月以來的低點，交易員將一些央行行長的言論視為繼續(xù)打壓美元的信號，并利用美元作為融資工具，來購買其它資產(chǎn)。

This so-called carry trade is believed by many market players to be the main driver of the US unit's multi-month decline.

許多市場參與者認(rèn)為，這種所謂的“套利交易”(carry trade)是美元連續(xù)數(shù)月來下跌的主要原因。

After trading within a tight range for nearly three weeks, the greenback suddenly lurched lower, breaching 74.50 on a trade-weighted basis – its weakest since the start of August 2008 – and decisively cutting through the $1.5050 mark versus the euro.

經(jīng)過近3周的窄幅波動后，美元匯率突然走低，按貿(mào)易加權(quán)水平衡量的美元指數(shù)跌破了74.50，為2008年8月初以來的最低水平，歐元兌美元匯率決定性地突破了1.5050美元的關(guān)口。

It also fell heavily against the yen, at one point touching a 10-month trough of Y87.40, and neared parity with the Swiss franc. The moves are likely to have been exacerbated by thin trading ahead of today's US Thanksgiving holiday.

美元兌日元匯率也大幅下挫，一度觸及87.40日元的10個月低點。同時美元兌瑞士法郎匯率接近等值。今日美國感恩節(jié)假期之前交投清淡，這可能加劇了美元的跌勢。

Analysts said dollar selling was triggered by a statement in the minutes of the Federal Reserve's last policy meeting, released on Tuesday night, which described the dollar's recent decline as “orderly”. This was interpreted as meaning the Fed was not unduly concerned about the currency's weakness.

分析師表示，周二晚間公布的美聯(lián)儲(Fed)上一次政策會議紀(jì)要中的一份聲明引發(fā)了美元拋盤。該聲明指出，美元近期的下跌是“有序的”。市場對此的解讀是：美聯(lián)儲沒有過度擔(dān)憂美元的疲軟。

In addition, comments yesterday by an official at the Bundesbank claiming the level of the euro was not a concern for Germany, and talk from a Russian central bank official that the institution was making preparations to include the Canadian dollar in its reserves also hurt the US currency.

此外，德國央行(Bundesbank)的一位官員昨日聲稱，德國并不擔(dān)心歐元匯率水平；同時俄羅斯央行官員稱，準(zhǔn)備將加拿大元納入其外匯儲備中。這些言論都打壓了美元。

Mansoor Mohi-uddin, managing director of foreign exchange strategy at UBS, said: “The consensus of the markets remains bearish on the dollar. So headlines like these are keeping the greenback pressured.”

瑞銀(UBS)外匯策略董事總經(jīng)理毛希丁(Mansoor Mohi-uddin)表示：“市場仍然一致看空美元。因此這樣的言論都令美元承壓。”

But he argued that dollar weakness was overdone. “Investors feel G10 central banks are not prepared to change interest rates to make carry trades less attractive. Moreover investors feel that emerging market central banks will keep diversifying out of each new dollar of FX reserves they're accumulating.

但他表示，美元的疲軟有些過頭。“投資者覺得，十國集團(tuán)(G10)成員國央行不準(zhǔn)備調(diào)整利率，以降低套利交易的吸引力。此外投資者還認(rèn)為，新興市場各國央行在新增外匯儲備中，將繼續(xù)進(jìn)行多元化調(diào)整，降低美元比例。”

“But the currency market is becoming one-way and therefore vulnerable to a sharp reversal in sentiment if these assumptions prove false,” said Mr Mohi-uddin.

毛希丁表示：“但外匯市場正變成單行道，因此如果這些假設(shè)被證明是錯的，市場就容易受到人氣突然逆轉(zhuǎn)的沖擊。”

譯者/君悅