中國將引領電動汽車熱潮

The broadening of the criminal inquiry in Germany into the Volkswagen diesel emissions scandal to include Hans Dieter Pötsch, chairman of its supervisory board, shows how badly VW lost its way.

德國擴大了針對大眾汽車(Volkswagen)柴油尾氣排放丑聞的刑事調查，該公司監(jiān)事會主席漢斯•迪亞特•波什(Hans Dieter Pötsch)成為調查對象，這表明大眾汽車多么地誤入歧途。

The scandal is still shaking the company: its use of software on up to 11m cars to help them pass emissions tests has carried a heavy price, making VW set aside €18.2bn. It has also disillusioned the industry, ending Europe’s hope of “clean diesel” becoming an enduring alternative to petrol.

這樁丑聞仍在撼動該公司：大眾在其1100萬輛柴油發(fā)動機汽車上安裝作弊軟件幫助這些汽車通過尾氣排放檢測，這一做法的代價是慘重的，迫使大眾為此撥備182億歐元。大眾還讓汽車行業(yè)的幻想破滅，終結了歐洲讓“清潔柴油”成為一種長久取代汽油的選擇的希望。

The lasting significance of the VW scandal will be to bring forward a shift in engine technology and alter the balance of power among the world’s biggest vehicle markets: the US, Europe and Asia. The lesson for carmakers is: go electric and go to China.

大眾尾氣丑聞的持久影響將促使發(fā)動機技術發(fā)生轉變，并改變全球最大汽車市場(美國、歐洲和亞洲)的實力平衡。汽車制造商得到的教訓是：生產(chǎn)電動汽車，到中國去。

Fuel-efficient diesel, with exhaust filters to limit emissions of nitrogen oxide particles, was supposed both to curb greenhouse gases and limit pollution. In practice, Europe tried to ignore an inconvenient truth about the latter: the UK government was last week instructed by a court to cut diesel fumes in cities faster than it had planned.

節(jié)能柴油配有限制一氧化氮微粒排放的排氣過濾器，本應減少溫室氣體和污染物的排放。實際上，歐洲試圖忽視有關后者的一個讓人不敢面對的事實：一家法庭上周敦促英國政府以比原計劃更快的速度減少城市的柴油廢氣。

No one could fail to notice such fumes in China. About one-third of the pollution that clogs the skies in cities such as Beijing and Chongqing comes from internal combustion engines as their citizens turn to driving. By the mid 2020s, Chinese consumers could be buying 40m cars a year, twice the number likely to be bought by Americans.

任何人都無法不關注中國的汽車廢氣。隨著居民紛紛開車上路，籠罩在北京和重慶等城市上空的約三分之一的污染來自內燃機。到2025年左右，中國消費者每年的汽車購買量可能會達到4000萬輛，是美國人的兩倍。

It is a problem but also an opportunity. China is already doing what countries such as the UK are being forced to consider: it is banning heavily polluting cars from cities by auctioning the right to own vehicle number plates while allowing “new energy vehicles” such as electric cars and plug-in electric hybrids an open road.

這是個問題，但也是個機遇。中國已在采取英國等國被迫思考的措施：中國正通過拍賣汽車號牌所有權，禁止重污染汽車在城市行駛，同時允許電動汽車和插電式混合動力汽車等“新能源汽車”無限制上路。

As a result, although the global electric car market is still tiny, it is most advanced in China, where 330,000 new energy vehicles were sold last year. Many of them are bought by local governments and state-owned enterprises for use as delivery vans, or in local ride-sharing schemes, thus giving China’s green carmakers a kick start.

因此，盡管全球電動汽車市場的規(guī)模很小，但在中國發(fā)展的最快，去年中國銷售的新能源汽車有33萬輛。其中很多由地方政府和國有企業(yè)購買，用作箱式送貨車或用于地方拼車計劃，這讓中國的環(huán)保汽車制造商得以起步。

These vehicles are not Teslas: many are quite basic. But they are handing China first-mover advantage in the regulation, technology and manufacturing of electric cars. While Europe’s car­makers and suppliers that specialised in diesel must now rethink, Chinese companies such as BYD and Anhui Jianghuai (JAC) occupy a sweet spot.

這些汽車不是特斯拉(Tesla)：很多都非常初級。但它們在電動汽車的監(jiān)管、技術和生產(chǎn)方面賦予了中國先行優(yōu)勢。比亞迪(BYD)和安徽江淮汽車(JAC)等中國企業(yè)已占據(jù)了有利位置，而專門生產(chǎn)柴油汽車的歐洲汽車制造商和供應商現(xiàn)在必須反思。

Diesel was under threat before the VW scandal: the tightening of European emissions standards will make it much more expensive for carmakers to offer diesel cars, levelling the price gap with electric vehicles. AlixPartners, the consultancy, expects diesel cars to account for only 9 per cent of European sales by 2030, compared with 56 per cent five years ago.

在大眾汽車丑聞之前，柴油汽車面臨危險：歐洲排放標準的收緊將大大提高汽車制造商生產(chǎn)柴油汽車的成本，這將拉平與電動汽車的價格差距。咨詢公司艾睿鉑(AlixPartners)預計，到2030年，柴油汽車將僅占到歐洲汽車銷量的9%，5年前為56%。

The limited range of electric cars, and lack of convenient recharging stations, has until now put off most buyers. Plug-in hybrids, such as the Chevrolet Volt and BMW 330e, make up for that by having two engines — one combustion and one electric. But this requires a lot of costly components from sophisticated European and US suppliers, such as Robert Bosch and Delphi.

到目前為止，電動汽車車型有限以及缺乏便利的充電設施讓多數(shù)購買者望而卻步。為了彌補這點，插電式混合動力汽車(例如雪佛蘭伏特(Chevrolet Volt) 和寶馬(BMW)的330e)配備了兩個引擎(一個是內燃機，一個是電動發(fā)動機)。但這需要很多昂貴的來自歐美高級供應商的零配件，例如羅伯特•博世(Robert Bosch)和德爾福(Delphi)。

Pure electric vehicles are simpler and do not need the same array of components. Battery advances mean that they should be able to drive up to 600km on one charge by 2020, the range VW promises for its proposed ID car. They would then be more appealing.

純電動汽車更為簡單，不需要同樣多的零配件。電池技術的進步意味著到2020年，電動汽車一次充電可行駛最高600公里，這是大眾汽車為其ID電動概念車承諾的目標。到那時，電動汽車就更具吸引力了。

This provides the opportunity for China to leapfrog US and western technology in the same way that some developing countries adopted mobile smartphones before fixed networks were built. The Chinese government knows it: the five-year plan unveiled in April heavily endorses green technology.

這為中國超越美國和西方技術提供了機會，就像一些發(fā)展中國家在固話網(wǎng)絡建成前跳躍到移動智能手機一樣。中國政府明白這點：4月公布的5年規(guī)劃大力支持環(huán)保技術。

China has an industrial stake in electric vehicles. While international carmakers tend to buy batteries produced by Japanese and South Korean companies, Chinese companies use Chinese suppliers including BYD and Amperex Technology. China’s lack of top-tier suppliers for combustion engines components matters less in electric.

電動汽車對于中國工業(yè)有著重要意義。國際汽車制造商往往會購買由日本和韓國公司生產(chǎn)的電池，中國企業(yè)則使用包括比亞迪和新能源科技(Amperex Technology)在內的中國供應商的產(chǎn)品。中國在內燃機零配件方面沒有一線供應商，但這在電動汽車領域不那么重要。

The VW scandal does not eliminate every advantage of European manufacturers and suppliers. A simple form of hybrid engine involving more powerful electronics is one alternative to diesel: UBS, the investment bank, estimates that 48-volt mild hybrid technology will be a €4bn market by 2020.

大眾汽車尾氣排放丑聞沒有完全消除歐洲制造商和供應商的優(yōu)勢。使用更強大電路的簡單形式的混合動力發(fā)動機是一種取代柴油的選擇：投行瑞銀(UBS)估計，到2020年，48伏微混電動技術市場的規(guī)模將達到40億歐元。

Nor will China’s carmakers have it all their own way at home. About 95 per cent of electric cars sold in China last year were made by Chinese companies, according to Automotive Foresight Shanghai, a consultancy. As carmakers such as VW and Nissan focus more heavily on China, that is bound to fall. VW is planning an electric vehicle joint venture with JAC.

中國汽車制造商將無法在國內自得其樂。上海咨詢公司Automotive Foresight稱，去年，在中國銷售的電動汽車中，大約95%由中國企業(yè)生產(chǎn)。隨著大眾和日產(chǎn)(Nissan)等汽車制造商加大對中國的關注，這個數(shù)字肯定會下滑。大眾汽車正計劃與江淮汽車組建一家電動汽車合資公司。

But China has plenty of levers to pull. Just as Europe’s dominance in diesel emerged from tight regulation of carbon emissions, China can lead the global electric vehicle market through force majeure. Its city-based experiments with electric transport have been a mixed bag but it will keep trying.

然而，中國有很多籌碼。正如歐洲在柴油領域的主導地位來自于對碳排放的嚴格監(jiān)管，中國可以通過強制引領全球電動汽車市場。中國以城市為基礎的電動汽車交通嘗試一直好壞參半，但中國將繼續(xù)努力。

The danger for VW and other Europeans is of becoming stuck in the past, over-invested in diesel when the future is electric. Mr Pötsch’s earlier behaviour is not really the difficulty.

大眾汽車和其他歐洲汽車廠商的危險在于，在未來方向是電動汽車之際，它們沉迷于過去，在柴油領域投資過度。大眾汽車監(jiān)事會主席波什之前的行為實際上并非難題。