“特朗普繁榮”能否持久？

Forecasters not only said Donald Trump would lose last month. They also thought markets would collapse if he won. Quite the opposite has happened. Investors expect all the good things Mr Trump promised and none of the bad. Instead of global trade wars and mass deportation of immigrants, the equity markets foresee tax cuts, deregulation and big spending. Almost every index has hit recent highs since November 8, adding more than $1tn to US equity valuations and almost five per cent to the dollar’s trade-weighted value. Global markets are gearing up for a Trump boom. In that respect Mr Trump is already heir to Ronald Reagan.

預(yù)測人士不僅曾預(yù)言唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)會輸?shù)舸筮x。他們還曾以為，如果特朗普獲勝，市場會崩潰。事實卻正好相反。投資者認(rèn)為特朗普承諾的好事全都會發(fā)生，而壞事全都不會。股市預(yù)想的情景里面包括減稅、去監(jiān)管和大規(guī)模政府支出，而不包括全球貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)和大舉驅(qū)逐移民。自11月8日以來，幾乎所有股指都已達(dá)到近期高點，為美國股市增加了逾1萬億美元市值，令美元貿(mào)易加權(quán)指數(shù)上漲近5%。全球市場正整裝待發(fā)，準(zhǔn)備迎接一輪特朗普繁榮。從這方面來說，特朗普已經(jīng)是羅納德•里根(Ronald Reagan)的繼承人了。

But the seeds to the reversal of the “Trump trade” are already sown. The biggest threat will come from the US Federal Reserve. On Wednesday, Janet Yellen, the Fed chair, will almost certainly raise US interest rates for only the second time in a decade.

不過，“特朗普行情”發(fā)生逆轉(zhuǎn)的種子已經(jīng)種下。對該行情的最大威脅將來自美聯(lián)儲(Fed)。美聯(lián)儲主席珍妮特•耶倫(Janet Yellen)周三幾乎肯定會提高美國的利率，這在十年內(nèi)也僅僅是第二次加息。

Before Mr Trump’s victory, the Fed signalled it was likely only to increase rates three or four times before 2019. That was because it anticipated continued fiscal retrenchment. Mr Trump’s victory has blown that up. A unified Republican government is poised to bring about the fiscal stimulus that it has been blocking Democrats from carrying out for years.

在特朗普勝選前，美聯(lián)儲曾釋放信號稱，在2019年以前該行可能只會加息三到四次。那是因為該行預(yù)計財政緊縮會持續(xù)下去。然而特朗普的勝選卻打破了這一預(yù)期。團(tuán)結(jié)一致的共和黨政府已準(zhǔn)備好推出財政刺激舉措——這正是多年來他們一直阻撓民主黨人實施的。

The effect on the US economy will be reflationary. Even if you halved Mr Trump’s plans for $5.7tn in tax cuts and $1tn in infrastructure spending, his fiscal stimulus would still be huge. Since US unemployment is already well below five per cent, Ms Yellen will have little choice but to accelerate the Fed’s planned interest rate increases. There are upsides to this. US monetary policy would return to normal far quicker than expected, which would give the Fed greater firepower to counteract the next recession. Goodbye to the “new normal” of zero lower bound rates. Hello to the old one where central bankers wrestle with the economy’s animal spirits.

這會對美國經(jīng)濟產(chǎn)生通貨再膨脹效應(yīng)。就算把特朗普的5.7萬億美元減稅計劃和1萬億美元基建開支計劃打個對折，他的財政刺激舉措仍然規(guī)模龐大。鑒于美國失業(yè)率已經(jīng)大大低于5%，耶倫除了加快美聯(lián)儲原計劃的加息步伐以外將別無選擇。這種局面存在有利之處。美國貨幣政策回歸正常的速度會遠(yuǎn)快于預(yù)期，這會為美聯(lián)儲應(yīng)對下一輪衰退提供更多彈藥。拜拜，零利率下限的“新常態(tài)”。你好，央行人士用于對付美國經(jīng)濟動物精神的“舊常態(tài)”。

But there are also two glaring downsides. The first is that it will set up a clash between the Fed and Mr Trump. No president likes the central bankers who take away the punch bowl just as the party is hotting up. Ms Yellen’s term comes to an end in early 2018 — barely a year away. Mr Trump’s campaign promise to fire Ms Yellen is one of the bad things markets assume he has now discarded. At any rate, a US president does not have the power to sack a Fed chief. But Mr Trump could make life impossible for Ms Yellen. Who he nominates to fill the two vacancies on the Fed’s board will give a clearer idea of which direction he wants the Fed to go. One of them may be Ms Yellen’s designated successor. How Mr Trump responds to the Fed’s interest rate increases, via Twitter or elsewhere, will be key. It is one thing to tweet disapproval of the Fed on the campaign trail but quite another when you are sitting in the Oval Office.

不過，這種局面中還存在兩個引人注目的不利之處。第一個不利之處，是它會讓美聯(lián)儲和特朗普之間發(fā)生沖突。沒有哪位總統(tǒng)喜歡央行人士在聚會剛剛熱鬧起來時就收走賓治酒。耶倫的任期將于2018年初結(jié)束——只剩一年多一點了。特朗普選舉時提出的解雇耶倫的承諾，是市場假定他如今已放棄的壞事之一。無論如何，美國總統(tǒng)根本也無權(quán)解雇美聯(lián)儲主席。不過，特朗普可以讓耶倫的日子變得非常不好過。特朗普任命誰來填補美聯(lián)儲理事會的兩個空缺，將更明確地顯示出他希望美聯(lián)儲往哪個方向走。他們中的一個人也許會是耶倫的指定繼任者。特朗普在Twitter或其他場合對美聯(lián)儲加息舉動的表態(tài)將非常關(guān)鍵。競選時發(fā)布Twitter消息批評美聯(lián)儲是一回事，就任總統(tǒng)后這樣做則完全是另一回事。

Little weight should be attached to Mr Trump’s pledge to appoint someone more hawkish to replace Ms Yellen. Republicans have a history of decrying loose monetary policy when in opposition but embracing it when in power. The same applies to fiscal deficits. Dick Cheney, the former vice-president, captured this when he said “Reagan proved that deficits don’t matter.” As a highly leveraged property developer, Mr Trump has often described himself as “a low interest rate” guy. He will want to be a low interest president. If Ms Yellen upset that, Mr Trump could always revive his support for the “audit the Fed” legislation on Capitol Hill.

至于特朗普任命更鷹派的人物替換耶倫的承諾，不要太放在心上。在野時譴責(zé)寬松貨幣政策、執(zhí)政時卻奉行這一政策，這是共和黨人一貫的傳統(tǒng)。同樣的規(guī)律也適用于財政赤字問題。美國前副總統(tǒng)迪克•切尼(Dick Cheney)曾說：“里根證明了赤字無關(guān)緊要。”這句話點中了要害。身為高度依賴杠桿的房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)商，特朗普經(jīng)常稱自己是喜歡“低利率”的那種人。他將會想要成為一位喜歡低利率的總統(tǒng)。如果耶倫攪局，特朗普隨時可以在國會山重新支持“對美聯(lián)儲進(jìn)行審計”(audit the Fed)的法案。

The second big downside is the effect on the US dollar. When you combine fiscal loosening with monetary tightening the currency will inevitably appreciate. That will further reduce the costs of imports and raise the price of exports. The US trade deficit — including that with China, which alone stands at almost $400bn last year — will rise. Mounting current account deficits are another feature of Reaganism. The big difference is that Mr Trump has vowed to reduce them. Reversing globalism and repatriating US manufacturing was at the core of Mr Trump’s campaign. Can he afford to abandon that? How would that affect poll numbers?

第二個重大不利之處是對美元的影響。在“寬財政”的同時“緊貨幣”，美元會不可避免地升值。這會進(jìn)一步降低進(jìn)口成本，提高出口價格。美國的貿(mào)易赤字將會上升——包括對華貿(mào)易赤字在內(nèi)，去年美國僅對該國的貿(mào)易赤字就達(dá)到了近4000億美元的水平。不斷積累的經(jīng)常項目赤字是里根主義的又一特色。有很大不同的地方在于，特朗普已發(fā)誓要降低貿(mào)易赤字。逆轉(zhuǎn)全球化進(jìn)程和讓美國的制造業(yè)回流，是特朗普競選綱領(lǐng)的核心。他有沒有放棄這一核心主張的資本?這么做會如何影響民意支持率?

This is where the bad Trump campaign vows come back into the picture. The US markets are wise to bet that Mr Trump will shelve his threats of global trade wars in the short term in favour of an expansive Reaganite boom. His nomination of investment bankers to the key economic roles — mostly from Goldman Sachs — has reassured Wall Street. The first phase of Mr Trump’s presidency will be “Government Sachs” as normal. But that will change when things turn difficult.

正是考慮到這種情況，我們現(xiàn)在還不能認(rèn)定特朗普競選承諾中壞的事情不會發(fā)生。美國市場把籌碼押在了特朗普會在短期內(nèi)擱置有關(guān)全球貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)的威脅、選擇擴張性里根式繁榮上面，這是明智的。他任命投行人士(大多來自高盛(Goldman Sachs))擔(dān)任關(guān)鍵經(jīng)濟職位，令華爾街放寬了心。特朗普總統(tǒng)任期的第一階段將是和往常一樣的“高盛政府”(Government Sachs)。不過，當(dāng)事情變得困難時，情況會發(fā)生變化。

The temptation to undermine the Fed’s independence, make a scapegoat of China, revive talk of deporting immigrants and slap tariffs on Mexico will grow with the trade deficit. At which point the markets will recall what it was they originally feared about Mr Trump.

隨著貿(mào)易赤字的增長，削弱美聯(lián)儲獨立性、把中國當(dāng)替罪羊、重提驅(qū)逐移民以及對墨西哥征收關(guān)稅的誘惑也會加大。屆時，市場會想起來，自己最初對特朗普的擔(dān)憂是什么。

But that is still some way off. For the past 18 months Mr Trump has led an anti-elitist presidential campaign without peer. Over the next few months, America’s elites can expect to receive their largest tax cut and asset-price boosting windfall in years. Little wonder the markets are so giddy.

不過，距離出現(xiàn)這種局面還有一段路程。過去18個月里，特朗普領(lǐng)導(dǎo)了一場無可匹敵的反精英主義總統(tǒng)競選。今后幾個月，美國精英可以預(yù)計的是，他們會迎來數(shù)年來最大幅度的減稅和天降資產(chǎn)價格暴漲。難怪市場如此興奮。