天不下雨，皇帝最急

世界急需用水，澳大利亞也正在迅速地轉(zhuǎn)變成了一個滿是干旱塵暴的地方。希臘有著數(shù)不盡的森林大火，日本的熱浪正在造成前所未有的慘烈死亡。 如果你是個獨裁者，你現(xiàn)在肯定會非常擔(dān)心。為什么呢?

Canadian economic historians from Brock University and St Francis Xavier University have looked at the political assassinations of the ancient Roman Empire and attempted to cook up an equation that can help to explain when and why they occurred. Their findings are published in Economic Letters.

來自布洛克大學(xué)和圣方濟各澤維爾大學(xué)的加拿大經(jīng)濟歷史學(xué)家研究了古羅馬帝國的政治暗殺事件，并試圖建立一個方程式，以解釋這些事件發(fā)生的時間和原因。 他們的研究結(jié)果發(fā)表在《經(jīng)濟學(xué)快報》上。

Bad decisions and bad friends certainly played a role, however, rain is the decisive factor, it seems.

他們發(fā)現(xiàn)，錯誤的決定和不懷好意的黨羽的確都是原因之一，但好像，雨水才是最重要的因素。

Being a Roman leader was a very dangerous job, in general. The Roman Empire, from 27 BCE to 476 CE, had a total of 82 emperors, 20 percent of whom were assassinated or murdered in a politically motivated attack.

回顧往昔，可以說做羅馬領(lǐng)袖是一項非常危險的工作了：羅馬帝國，一直從公元前27年到公元476年，這期間共有82個皇帝，其中20% 都因政治因素而慘遭暗殺或謀殺。

The years of 235 CE to 285 CE were bloody in the northeastern empire, even by Roman standards. Over the course of these 50 years, 14 out of 26 emperors were assassinated.

在公元235年到285這短短五十年中，用腥風(fēng)血雨來描述可謂一點也不夸張：在位的帝王共26位，其中14位死于暗殺。

The factor that appears to be consistent throughout these assassinations is that the previous year hadn’t seen much rain. In fact, a significant reduction in rainfall would increase the likelihood of an assassination by 11 percent. The researchers gathered their data from another study that collected information from over 7,000 rainfall-sensitive oak tree rings across France and eastern Germany.

這些暗殺事件中似乎始終如一的因素是，前一年沒有出現(xiàn)太多的降雨。事實上，降雨量的大幅度減少會使暗殺的可能性增加11% 。研究人員從另一項研究中收集了他們的數(shù)據(jù)，該研究收集了法國和德國東部7,000多個降雨敏感橡樹林的信息。

The Roman economy was largely agricultural, meaning a drought could easily lead to food shortages. Soldiers, especially in the northern empire, were particularly reliant on local food sources and would be hit the hardest by starvation. A hungry soldier is an unhappy soldier, so this could lead to a massively disgruntled military. If there’s one rule for dictators, it’s don’t annoy your military, as they are perhaps your strongest pillar of power.

羅馬主要依靠農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟而發(fā)展，這意味著干旱很容易導(dǎo)致糧食短缺。士兵，尤其是北方帝國的士兵，特別依賴當(dāng)?shù)氐氖澄飦碓矗視蝠囸I而受到最嚴重的打擊。一個饑餓的士兵會滿腹騷怨，所以這可能使得一支軍隊都變得躁動不安。 如果說獨裁者有一條不可觸碰的底線，那這條底線就是不要激怒你的軍隊，因為他們可能是你最強大的力量來源。

“Our chain of causation is as follows. When there's less rainfall, there are lower crop yields. This, in turn, causes Roman frontier troops to starve, which increases the risks of mutinies. Such troop discontent can, in turn, lead to assassinations,” study author Cornelius Christian, of Brock University, told IFLScience. "We find evidence consistent with this."

研究報告的作者、布洛克大學(xué)的科尼利厄斯 · 克里斯蒂安告訴 IFLScience："我們建立的因果關(guān)系鏈如下：降雨量減少時，作物產(chǎn)量就會降低，導(dǎo)致羅馬邊防部隊挨餓，從而增加了兵變的風(fēng)險，而部隊的不滿反過來會導(dǎo)致暗殺,我們也的確發(fā)現(xiàn)了與此相符的證據(jù)。"

“Systemic reviews suggest that drought increases the risk of conflict, even in modern times,” Christian added. "A striking historical example is the French Revolution: a paper by Maria Waldinger of the London School of Economics shows that, across France, drought and crop failures predict more peasant uprisings in 1789. In more modern times, drought in India predicts Naxalite rebel violence."

"系統(tǒng)性審查表明，即使在現(xiàn)代，干旱也會增加沖突的風(fēng)險,"克里斯蒂安補充道。 "一個著名的例子是法國大革命: 倫敦經(jīng)濟學(xué)院的瑪麗亞 · 瓦丁格的論文表明，在法國各地，干旱和農(nóng)作物歉收是1789年涌現(xiàn)的農(nóng)民起義的導(dǎo)火索。更現(xiàn)代一些的例子則是，印度的干旱在某種程度上導(dǎo)致了納薩爾派叛軍的暴力行為。"

Emperors, dictators, autocrats, and despots: you better start praying for rain.

皇帝、獨裁者、獨裁者和專制暴君：你最好開始祈禱雨水充沛。