研究人員在愛(ài)達(dá)荷州人工播撒云朵來(lái)增加降雪

研究人員在愛(ài)達(dá)荷州人工播撒云朵來(lái)增加降雪

On a chilly clear day in January, a team of scientists turned their heads to the sky and watched as snowflakes began to fall above them in western Idaho. There was no snow predicted on the weather reports – well, at least, by meteorologist forecasts.

在1月一個(gè)寒冷晴朗的日子里，一組科學(xué)家把頭轉(zhuǎn)向天空，看著雪花開(kāi)始在愛(ài)達(dá)荷州西部飄落。天氣預(yù)報(bào)中沒(méi)有預(yù)測(cè)到會(huì)下雪——至少氣象學(xué)家是這樣預(yù)測(cè)的。

This snow was created by scientists firing a series of flares from an aircraft to inject silver iodide (AgI) particles into a natural cloud floating by. The experiment, called SNOWIE (Seeded and Natural Orographic Wintertime Clouds: The Idaho Experiment), happened two more times over the course of the month.

科學(xué)家們從一架飛機(jī)上發(fā)射了一系列的照明彈，將碘化銀(AgI)粒子注入飄過(guò)的天然云層中，形成了這場(chǎng)雪。這個(gè)實(shí)驗(yàn)被稱(chēng)為SNOWIE(播種和自然地形的冬季云層:愛(ài)達(dá)荷實(shí)驗(yàn))，在一個(gè)月內(nèi)又發(fā)生了兩次。

Kristy Hamilton

The team led by the University of Colorado Boulder triggered the snow via a technology called "cloud seeding", a much-discussed, much-debated method of increasing water supply to arid regions. To clarify the many uncertainties of such an approach, the team took to the difficult task of measuring artificially provoked precipitation.

由科羅拉多大學(xué)博爾德分校領(lǐng)導(dǎo)的研究小組通過(guò)一種被稱(chēng)為“播云”的技術(shù)引發(fā)了這場(chǎng)雪，這是一種被廣泛討論和爭(zhēng)論的增加干旱地區(qū)供水的方法。為了澄清這種方法的許多不確定性，該小組承擔(dān)了測(cè)量人工誘發(fā)降水的艱巨任務(wù)。

The study is the one of the first to "show the entire chain of events during three cases from the time we put the seeding material into the cloud, as it converts supercooled liquid into snow, and how the snow falls onto the ground," said Katja Friedrich, an associate professor at the University of Colorado Boulder, to IFLScience.

這項(xiàng)研究是第一個(gè)“展示了從我們把種子材料放入云中，當(dāng)它把過(guò)冷的液體變成雪，以及雪是如何落到地面上，在這三種情況下的整個(gè)事件鏈。”科羅拉多大學(xué)博爾德分校的副教授Katja Friedrich對(duì)IFLScience說(shuō)。

In all, the seeding events produced enough water to fill around 282 Olympic-sized swimming pools. That may sound like a lot, and in some ways, it is, however the 2,330 square kilometers (900 square miles) the dusting of snow landed upon came out to be about a tenth of a millimeter deep. The findings are published in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

總而言之，種子比賽產(chǎn)生的水足以填滿282個(gè)奧運(yùn)會(huì)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)大小的游泳池。這聽(tīng)起來(lái)可能很多，但在某些方面，它是，然而，2330平方公里(900平方英里)的降雪量出來(lái)約0.1毫米深。研究結(jié)果發(fā)表在《美國(guó)國(guó)家科學(xué)院院刊》上。

So how does cloud seeding work? Silver iodide particles are used as "seeds" that are injected into the clouds – the little bits of material provide a surface for water molecules to latch onto and form ice crystals around, eventually producing rain or snow. However, proof that such a method works (and is worth the effort) is controversial. Studies have yielded conflicting or inconclusive results, with specific measurements difficult to attain: Is the additional precipitation natural or man-made? The uncertainties of weather make cloud seeding a less-than-ideal uncontrolled experiment.

那么，人工降雨是如何起作用的呢?碘化銀粒子被用作“種子”，被注入云層——這些小塊的物質(zhì)為水分子提供了一個(gè)附著的表面，并在周?chē)纬杀?，最終形成雨或雪。然而，證明這種方法有效(并且值得努力)是有爭(zhēng)議的。研究產(chǎn)生了相互矛盾或不確定的結(jié)果，很難獲得具體的測(cè)量:額外的降水是自然的還是人為的?天氣的不確定性使播云成為不太理想的不受控制的實(shí)驗(yàn)。

The Seeded and Natural Orographic Wintertime Clouds: The Idaho Experiment (SNOWIE) project radar dish gets a dusting of ice in 2017. Joshua Aikins

"Previous studies used statistical comparisons between seeded and non-seeded events and times as well as target and control areas – the big caveat here is are the conditions the same? Some studies reported enhancements in snowfall due to cloud seeding that range between 0.5 and 2 mm h-1 but these are only point measurements and we cannot say how much water is being generated over the entire catchment," said Friedrich.

“之前的研究使用了種子和非種子賽事、時(shí)間以及目標(biāo)和控制區(qū)域的統(tǒng)計(jì)比較——這里需要注意的是，情況是一樣的嗎?”一些研究報(bào)告說(shuō)，由于人工降雨，降雪量增加了0.5毫米到2毫米，但這些只是點(diǎn)測(cè)量，我們不能說(shuō)整個(gè)流域產(chǎn)生了多少水，”弗里德里希說(shuō)。

However, "This paper quantifies the amount of snow produced over an entire catchment."

然而，“這篇論文量化了整個(gè)流域產(chǎn)生的雪量。”

Another question that rises to the surface is whether there are environmental costs of such an inference to natural weather patterns. A previous report suggested that preliminary hazards seem low. Yet this isn’t to say there aren't any, just that the evidence for a definitive answer is not there yet. It's also important to note that the technology is powerless without clouds and their location matters too. Concerns that silver iodide can make people sick have so far shown negligible effects at the levels used to seed clouds.

另一個(gè)浮出水面的問(wèn)題是，這種對(duì)自然天氣模式的推斷是否會(huì)造成環(huán)境成本。之前的一份報(bào)告顯示，初步的危險(xiǎn)似乎很低。然而，這并不是說(shuō)沒(méi)有任何證據(jù)，只是沒(méi)有明確答案的證據(jù)。需要注意的是，如果沒(méi)有云，這項(xiàng)技術(shù)是無(wú)能為力的，云的位置也很重要。人們擔(dān)心碘化銀會(huì)讓人生病，但迄今為止，碘化銀對(duì)云層的影響微乎其微。

Pilots have previously modified weather patterns to stop hail destroying crops in Alberta, Canada. Such measures are becoming more popular, but the research is still limited in what it can say are the final effects. For states such as Idaho and Colorado, rivers that are used as water for districts depend on the amount of snowfall they receive.

飛行員之前已經(jīng)修改了天氣模式，以阻止冰雹破壞加拿大阿爾伯塔省的農(nóng)作物。這些措施正變得越來(lái)越受歡迎，但這項(xiàng)研究的最終效果仍是有限的。對(duì)于像愛(ài)達(dá)荷州和科羅拉多州這樣的州來(lái)說(shuō)，作為地區(qū)用水的河流取決于它們收到的降雪量。

"The clouds are seeded with silver iodide, which will end up in streams and rivers. In general, the cloud seeding entities have to comply to environmental regulations, like every other company," noted Friedrich. "As far as I know the amount of silver ending up in the ground water is low and the same order of magnitude as the natural silver background concentration. However, this is not my area of expertise."

“這些云被播種了碘化銀，碘化銀最終會(huì)流入小溪和河流。一般來(lái)說(shuō)，云種實(shí)體必須遵守環(huán)境法規(guī)，就像其他公司一樣。“據(jù)我所知，地下水中的銀含量很低，與天然銀本底濃度的數(shù)量級(jí)相同。然而，這不是我的專(zhuān)業(yè)領(lǐng)域。”

In addition, "the study only looked at three cases. Water managers want to know how much water is being produced over an entire water year or winter season. That would be the next step that we want to address with numerical modeling."

此外，“這項(xiàng)研究只研究了三個(gè)案例。水管理人員想要知道整個(gè)水年或冬季生產(chǎn)了多少水。這將是我們想要通過(guò)數(shù)值模擬解決的下一個(gè)步驟。”

Researchers use this truck-mounted radar dish to track and measure cloud seeding events in western Idaho. Joshua Aikins