世界經(jīng)濟(jì)論壇：警惕中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)硬著陸風(fēng)險(xiǎn)

A hard economic landing for China, fiscal crises in developed countries and broad asset-price collapses are the biggest risks to global stability this year and beyond, according to the World Economic Forum, which meets in Davos this month.
世界經(jīng)濟(jì)論壇(World Economic Forum)表示，中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的硬著陸、發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家的財(cái)政危機(jī)、廣泛的資產(chǎn)價(jià)格崩潰，是今年及未來(lái)幾年全球穩(wěn)定面臨的最大風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。該論壇將于本月在達(dá)沃斯(Davos)拉開(kāi)帷幕。

China is one of the biggest concerns in this year's Global Risk report, partly because of the way it has responded to the global financial crisis and partly because it is one of the only risks yet to be realised from those consistently identified in the report's five-year history.
中國(guó)是今年《全球風(fēng)險(xiǎn)報(bào)告》(Global Risk report)的最大擔(dān)憂之一，部分原因在于該國(guó)應(yīng)對(duì)全球金融危機(jī)的方式，還有一部分是因?yàn)樵谠搱?bào)告5年的歷史中，它是少數(shù)幾個(gè)一直得到識(shí)別、但迄今尚未發(fā)生的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)之一。

The report has been successful in identifying the big risks in the past few years, having flagged up in 2006-2008 asset-price overvaluations, consumer over-indebtedness, oil and food price jumps and the destabilising effects of the US current account deficit.
該報(bào)告在過(guò)去幾年內(nèi)成功識(shí)別了一些重大風(fēng)險(xiǎn)：在2006-2008年，它識(shí)別出了資產(chǎn)價(jià)格過(guò)高、消費(fèi)者過(guò)度負(fù)債、石油和糧食價(jià)格飆升，以及美國(guó)經(jīng)常賬戶(hù)赤字的破壞穩(wěn)定作用。

However, its impact is somewhat muted by the fact that it pointedly has never attempted to forecast how or when these risks would materialise.
不過(guò)，該報(bào)告從未嘗試預(yù)測(cè)這些風(fēng)險(xiǎn)何時(shí)及如何成為現(xiàn)實(shí)，這在某種程度上削弱了它的影響力。

This year's report says the chances of a serious economic slowdown in China are above 20 per cent and would lead to economic losses of between $250bn and $1,000bn. The repercussions would be greater than this because of the country's central role in areas such as funding developed country deficits and consuming the majority of exports from its south-east Asian neighbours.
今年的報(bào)告指出，中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)嚴(yán)重放緩的可能性大于20%，并將會(huì)導(dǎo)致2500億至1萬(wàn)億美元的經(jīng)濟(jì)損失?？紤]到該國(guó)在資助發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家赤字、消費(fèi)東南亞鄰國(guó)大部分出口等方面扮演的中心角色，其連帶影響將會(huì)更大。

The authors of the report said that while China appeared to have navigated the global financial crisis well, it had relied on especially high credit growth to do this, which risked mimicking the asset price bubbles and unbalanced growth of the west before the crisis.
報(bào)告作者表示，盡管中國(guó)似乎順利度過(guò)了金融危機(jī)，但它主要是依靠極高的信貸增長(zhǎng)來(lái)實(shí)現(xiàn)這一點(diǎn)的，這可能讓它重蹈危機(jī)之前西方資產(chǎn)價(jià)格泡沫和不平衡增長(zhǎng)的覆轍。

Commercial lending by Chinese banks grew more than 45 per cent between July 2008 and July 2009, according to data from Swiss Re.
瑞士再保險(xiǎn)(Swiss Re)的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，在2008年7月到2009年7月間，中國(guó)銀行的商業(yè)貸款增長(zhǎng)了45%以上。

“China is on a very unbalanced path of economic growth,” said Daniel Hofmann, group chief economist at Zurich Financial Services, the global insurance group.
“中國(guó)正走上一條非常不均衡的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)道路，”全球保險(xiǎn)集團(tuán)蘇黎世金融服務(wù)集團(tuán)(Zurich Financial Services)集團(tuán)首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家丹尼爾•霍夫曼(Daniel Hofmann)表示。

This helped to explain why asset price collapses were still high on the agenda, in spite of the pain that the US and western Europe have been through in the past two years. The likelihood of another collapse is also above 20 per cent, according to the report, and would cause global economic losses of more than $1,000bn.
這幫助解釋了，為何美國(guó)與西歐盡管在過(guò)去兩年經(jīng)歷了那么多痛苦，但資產(chǎn)價(jià)格崩潰在日程表上仍如此靠前。報(bào)告稱(chēng)，另一場(chǎng)資產(chǎn)價(jià)格崩潰的可能性也在20%之上，且將會(huì)導(dǎo)致全球遭受逾1萬(wàn)億美元的經(jīng)濟(jì)損失。

Raj Singh, chief risk officer at Swiss Re, said another significant risk that was gaining importance as countries' fiscal positions worsened was the need to address chronic under-investment in infrastructure.
瑞再首席風(fēng)險(xiǎn)官拉吉•辛格(Raj Singh)表示，在各國(guó)財(cái)政狀況惡化之際，另一個(gè)日益突顯的重要風(fēng)險(xiǎn)是：我們亟需解決基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施長(zhǎng)期投資不足的問(wèn)題。

“This is not just about the risk to airports or other existing structures in the developed world, but is particularly acute for agriculture and food security,” he said.
他表示：“這不僅僅是發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家機(jī)場(chǎng)或其它現(xiàn)有設(shè)施面臨風(fēng)險(xiǎn)這么簡(jiǎn)單，而且包括農(nóng)業(yè)和糧食安全方面的迫切風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。”

He said the last fiscal crises of the 1980s and 1990s resulted in a big drop in agricultural investment, which has never been replaced – and the world had now reached a point where it needed to increase food production by 70 per cent to feed an expected population of 9.1bn by 2020.
他指出，發(fā)生于上世紀(jì)80、90年代的上一場(chǎng)財(cái)政危機(jī)，使得農(nóng)業(yè)投資出現(xiàn)了嚴(yán)重下滑，直到現(xiàn)在都沒(méi)有恢復(fù)，而世界已經(jīng)走到了這樣一個(gè)時(shí)點(diǎn)：到2020年，它需要將糧食產(chǎn)量提高70%，以養(yǎng)活預(yù)計(jì)的91億人口。

Mr Hofmann added that the risks of fiscal crises faced by western countries particularly were not based mainly on “exploding budget deficits” but about the current models for health, education and unemployment protection, which in the US and UK especially “are clearly not sustainable”.
霍夫曼補(bǔ)充表示，尤其是在西方國(guó)家，財(cái)政危機(jī)并非主要因?yàn)?ldquo;預(yù)算赤字爆炸”，而是因?yàn)楫?dāng)前的醫(yī)療、教育和失業(yè)保護(hù)模式，特別是在英美“明顯是不可持續(xù)的”。