Digital future unwound 人工智能：你不知道的歡樂和憂傷
For the past few months, artificial intelligence (AI) has been a much talked about topic in the worlds of both pop culture and science. Last November saw the release of Oscar-nominated and winning biopic, “The Imitation Game”, about the father of the modern computer, Alan Turing. Last month, another Hollywood film about clever robots, Chappie, hit theaters. And here in China, search engine giant Baidu founder and CEO Li Yanhong threw out a bold proposal at the Chinese People’s Political ConsultativeConference. Li’s vision is a project called “China Brain”, aiming to make China the world leader in developing artificial intelligence systems.
就在短短的幾個(gè)月間，人工智能成為了流行文化和科學(xué)界的熱門話題。去年11月上映的《模仿游戲》就是關(guān)于現(xiàn)代計(jì)算機(jī)之父艾倫•圖靈的一部傳記電影;該片獲得奧斯卡多項(xiàng)提名，并最終拿下獲獎(jiǎng)。上個(gè)月，好萊塢另一部關(guān)于智能機(jī)器人的影片《超能查派》也登陸(北美)各大院線。在中國(guó)，百度創(chuàng)始人兼CEO李彥宏則在人民政協(xié)會(huì)議上提出了大膽的提案，建議建設(shè)“中國(guó)大腦”，意在使中國(guó)成為人工智能系統(tǒng)的世界領(lǐng)跑者。
Is artificial intelligence a boon or does it spell doom for humans? In their book The Second Machine Age: Work, Progress, and Prosperity in a Time of Brilliant Technologies, authors Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee, both of whom hail from MIT, US, could barely hide their excitement toward the rise of machines.
對(duì)人類來說，人工智能到底是福音還是喪鐘?立克•布林約爾弗森與安德魯•麥凱菲均來自美國(guó)麻省理工學(xué)院，他們?cè)谥鳌兜诙螜C(jī)器革命：數(shù)字化技術(shù)將如何改變我們的經(jīng)濟(jì)與社會(huì)》中都表達(dá)出對(duì)于機(jī)械崛起難掩的興奮。
According to the authors, we are entering an age of accelerated development of artificial and robotic technology. “Digital machines have escaped their narrow confines and started to demonstrate broad abilities in pattern recognition, complex communication, and other domains that used to be exclusively human,” write the authors. “We’ve recently seen great progress in natural language processing, machine learning (the ability of a computer to automatically refine its methods and improve its results as it gets more data), computer vision, simultaneous localization and mapping, and many other areas.
這兩位作者認(rèn)為，我們正在迎來一個(gè)人工智能和機(jī)器人技術(shù)加速發(fā)展的時(shí)代。他們寫道：“數(shù)字機(jī)器不再局限于狹小的范圍，而是開始在更廣泛的領(lǐng)域里大放異彩，模式識(shí)別，復(fù)雜交流以及其他曾經(jīng)只專屬人類的領(lǐng)域里都有了它的身影。近年來，自然語言處理、機(jī)器學(xué)習(xí)(計(jì)算機(jī)在獲取更多數(shù)據(jù)后自動(dòng)改進(jìn)算法、提高計(jì)算結(jié)果的能力)、計(jì)算機(jī)視覺，同步定位、測(cè)繪等諸多領(lǐng)域也取得了長(zhǎng)足發(fā)展。”
“We’re going to see artificial intelligence do more and more, and as this happens costs will go down, outcomes will improve, and our lives will get better.”
“我們將會(huì)看到人工智能完成越來越多的事務(wù)，而成本卻日益下降、產(chǎn)出不斷提高，我們的生活也將變得越來越好。”
Bright or bleak future?
前途光明抑或暗淡?
Already AI can help blind people see and deaf people hear. And wheelchairs have been invented that can be controlled by thoughts. We are going to witness more innovations and wonders made possible by AI, according to the authors.
在人工智能的幫助下，盲人可看，聾人可聽，輪椅可通過思想控制。因此，該書的作者們還認(rèn)為，我們將見證人工智能帶來的更多創(chuàng)新與奇跡。
However, not all are equally enthusiastic about AI. A February report from the Global Challenges Foundation listed AI, alongside extreme climate change, nuclear war and ecological catastrophe, as “risks that threaten human civilization”. Many pre-eminent scientists share the same concern. Stephen Hawking told the BBC last December that “the development of full artificial intelligence could spell the end of the human race.”
然而，并非人人都如此樂觀。全球挑戰(zhàn)基金會(huì)在2月的一份報(bào)道中，將人工智能與極端氣候變化、核戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)和生態(tài)災(zāi)難并列為“威脅人類文明的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素”。許多知名的科學(xué)家也表達(dá)了同樣的擔(dān)憂。去年12月，史蒂芬•霍金在接受BBC采訪時(shí)就表示 “全人工智能的發(fā)展將意味著人類的終結(jié)”。
“It would take off on its own, and re-design itself at an ever increasing rate,” he said: “Humans, who are limited by slow biological evolution, couldn’t compete, and would be superseded.”
他說：“人工智能將能夠以不斷增長(zhǎng)的速度自我提升、自我再設(shè)計(jì)(自我更新);而人類由于緩慢生物進(jìn)化的限制，難以與之抗衡，最終將被取代。”
Hawking’s worry echoed that of Tesla and SpaceX boss Elon Musk, who said in last October at an MIT conference that “we should be very careful about artificial intelligence. If I had to guess at what our biggest existential threat is, it’s probably that”.
美國(guó)太空探索技術(shù)公司Spacex與環(huán)保跑車公司特斯拉的大老板埃隆•馬斯克也有著和霍金一樣的擔(dān)憂;去年十月，在麻省理工學(xué)院的會(huì)議上，馬斯克就提出：“我們對(duì)待人工智能應(yīng)十分謹(jǐn)慎。如果讓我說目前人類生存最大的威脅，那十有八九就是它了。”
“I’m increasingly inclined to think that there should be some regulatory oversight, maybe at the national and international level, just to make sure that we don’t do something very foolish,” Musk said.
馬斯克還說：“我愈發(fā)覺得(對(duì)于人工智能)應(yīng)該進(jìn)行國(guó)家或國(guó)際層面的管理監(jiān)督，以確保我們不做傻事。”
