Research in China finds air pollution significantly shortened life expectancy 研究發(fā)現(xiàn)：空氣污染顯著縮短壽命

導(dǎo)讀：一項(xiàng)新的研究表明由于燒煤引發(fā)的嚴(yán)重空氣污染將縮短中國(guó)北方居民的壽命。研究人員估計(jì)，因?yàn)楹粑蹪岬目諝?，上世紀(jì)90年代居住于北方的5億居民要比南部的居民平均少活5年。

A new study links heavy air pollution from coal burning to shorter lives in northern China. Researchers estimate that the half-billion people alive there in the 1990s will live an average of 5 years less than their southern counterparts because they breathed dirtier air.

一項(xiàng)新的研究表明由于燒煤引發(fā)的嚴(yán)重空氣污染將縮短中國(guó)北方居民的壽命。研究人員估計(jì)，因?yàn)楹粑蹪岬目諝猓鲜兰o(jì)90年代居住于北方的5億居民要比南部的居民平均少活5年。

China itself made the comparison possible: for decades, a now-discontinued government policy provided free coal for heating, but only in the colder north. Researchers found significant differences in both particle pollution of the air and life expectancy in the two regions, and said the results could be used to extrapolate the effects of such pollution on lifespans elsewhere in the world.

中國(guó)可以用自身來(lái)做一個(gè)比較：幾十年來(lái)，國(guó)家政策只允許給寒冷的北方地區(qū)提供免費(fèi)的煤燃料供暖，現(xiàn)在這項(xiàng)政策已經(jīng)被廢止。研究人員發(fā)現(xiàn)，在南北兩個(gè)地區(qū)，空氣中顆粒物污染和人們的預(yù)期壽命都存在顯著差異，而且研究結(jié)果可以用來(lái)推斷在世界其他地方這種污染對(duì)壽命的影響。

The study by researchers from China, Israel and the United States was published Tuesday in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

這項(xiàng)研究由來(lái)自中國(guó)，以色列和美國(guó)的研究人員共同完成，并于周二發(fā)表在《美國(guó)國(guó)家科學(xué)院院刊》上。

While previous studies have found that pollution affects human health, “the deeper and ultimately more important question is the impact on life expectancy,” said one of the authors, Michael Greenstone, a professor of environmental economics at Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

雖然之前的研究發(fā)現(xiàn)，污染會(huì)影響人體健康，但是“更深層和根本上更重要的問(wèn)題是對(duì)預(yù)期壽命的影響。”該項(xiàng)研究的作者之一，麻省理工學(xué)院環(huán)境經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)教授邁克爾·格林斯通說(shuō)。

“This study provides a unique setting to answer the life expectancy question because the (heating) policy dramatically alters pollution concentrations for people who appear to be of otherwise identical health,” Greenstone said in an email. “Further, due to the low rates of migration in China in this period, we can know people’s exposure over long time periods,” he said.

“這項(xiàng)研究為回答有關(guān)壽命的問(wèn)題提供了一個(gè)獨(dú)特的情境，因?yàn)?供暖)政策極大地改變了看似健康狀況相同的人生存環(huán)境的污染濃度，”格林斯通在一封電子郵件中說(shuō)道，“此外，由于中國(guó)在此期間的低遷移率，我們就可以知道，人們長(zhǎng)期以來(lái)都是暴露在一定污染濃度的環(huán)境中。”

The policy gave free coal for fuel boilers to heat homes and offices to cities north of the Huai River, which divides China into north and south. It was in effect for much of the 1950-1980 period of central planning, and, though discontinued after 1980, it has left a legacy in the north of heavy coal burning, which releases particulate pollutants into the air that can harm human health. Researchers found no other government policies that treated China’s north differently from the south.

因淮河為中國(guó)區(qū)分南北的界限，故之前的政策為中國(guó)淮河以北城市的家庭和辦公室提供免費(fèi)的煤燃料鍋爐供暖。該政策在中央計(jì)劃的1950年-1980年期間開(kāi)始實(shí)行，雖然在1980年后被廢止，但大量的煤燃燒卻給北方的空氣留下了危害人體健康的顆粒污染物。研究人員并沒(méi)有發(fā)現(xiàn)其他不同對(duì)待中國(guó)南北部的政策。

The researchers collected data for 90 cities, from 1981 to 2000, on the annual daily average concentration of total suspended particulates. In China, those are considered to be particles that are 100 micrometers or less in diameter, emitted from sources including power stations, construction sites and vehicles.

研究人員收集了90個(gè)城市多年總懸浮微粒日平均濃度的數(shù)據(jù)，時(shí)間跨度從1981年到2000年。在中國(guó)，懸浮微粒被認(rèn)為是指由包括發(fā)電廠、建筑工地和車輛發(fā)出的，直徑小于或等于100微米的粒子。

The researchers estimated the impact on life expectancies using mortality data from 1991-2000. They found that in the north, the concentration of particulates was 184 micrograms per cubic meter ― or 55 percent ― higher than in the south, and life expectancies were 5.5 years lower on average across all age ranges.

研究人員通過(guò)1991年-2000年的死亡率數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)估計(jì)對(duì)預(yù)期壽命的影響。他們發(fā)現(xiàn)，在北方，微粒的濃度為每立方米184微克——比南部數(shù)據(jù)高55%，而且在所有年齡段的平均預(yù)期壽命比南方短5.5年。

The researchers said the difference in life expectancies was almost entirely due to an increased incidence of deaths classified as cardiorespiratory ― those from causes that have previously been linked to air quality, including heart disease, stroke, lung cancer and respiratory illnesses.

研究人員說(shuō)，預(yù)期壽命的差異幾乎完全是由于心肺死亡類疾病的發(fā)生率增加——這些通常被人們認(rèn)為是空氣質(zhì)量導(dǎo)致的疾病包括心臟病、中風(fēng)、肺癌和呼吸系統(tǒng)疾病。

Total suspended particulates include fine particulate matter called PM2.5 ― particles with diameters of no more than 2.5 micrometers. PM2.5 is of especially great health concern because it can penetrate deep into the lungs, but the researchers lacked the data to analyze those tiny particles separately.

總懸浮粒子包括被稱為PM2.5的細(xì)顆粒物，即直徑不超過(guò)2.5微米的顆粒。因?yàn)樗梢詽B透到肺部深處，PM2.5引起人們對(duì)健康的極大擔(dān)憂，但研究人員缺乏數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)單獨(dú)分析這些微小顆粒的實(shí)際影響。

The authors said their research can be used to estimate the effect of total suspended particulates on other countries and time periods. Their analysis suggests that every additional 100 micrograms of particulate matter per cubic meter in the atmosphere lowers life expectancy at birth by about three years.

該項(xiàng)研究的作者還說(shuō)，他們的研究可以用來(lái)估計(jì)總懸浮微粒對(duì)其他國(guó)家和時(shí)段的影響。他們的分析表明，大氣中每立方米每增加100微克的顆粒物，則降低出生時(shí)3年左右的預(yù)期壽命。

The study also noted that there was a large difference in particulate matter between the north and south, but not in other forms of air pollution such as sulfur dioxide and nitrous oxide.

該研究還指出，南北之間在顆粒物上有很大的差異，但在其他形式的空氣污染，如二氧化硫和氮氧化物上并沒(méi)有這種差異。

Francesca Dominici, a professor of biostatistics at Harvard School of Public Health who has researched the health effects of fine particulate matter in the U.S., said the study was “fascinating.”

弗朗西斯卡·多米尼西認(rèn)為這項(xiàng)研究“有著巨大吸引力”。身為哈佛大學(xué)公共衛(wèi)生學(xué)院的生物統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)教授，多米尼西在美國(guó)研究細(xì)顆粒物對(duì)健康的影響。

China’s different treatment of north and south allowed researchers to get pollution data that would be impossible in a scientific setting.

中國(guó)南北方受到的不同對(duì)待使得研究人員能夠獲取到不可能在任何科學(xué)場(chǎng)景中得到的污染數(shù)據(jù)。

Dominici said the quasi-experimental approach was a good approximation of a randomized experiment, “especially in this situation where a randomized experiment is not possible.”

多米尼西說(shuō)準(zhǔn)實(shí)驗(yàn)法是近似一個(gè)隨機(jī)實(shí)驗(yàn)的很好方法，“尤其是在這種不可能做隨機(jī)實(shí)驗(yàn)的情況下。”

She said she wasn’t surprised by the findings, given China’s high levels of pollution.

她說(shuō)，考慮到中國(guó)的高污染水平，她對(duì)調(diào)查結(jié)果并不感到驚訝。

“In the U.S. I think it’s pretty much been accepted that even small changes in PM2.5, much, much, much smaller than what they are observing in China, are affecting life expectancy,” said Dominici, who was not involved in the study.

“在美國(guó)，我想，哪怕PM2.5的數(shù)值發(fā)生很小的變化，遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)小于他們?cè)谥袊?guó)觀測(cè)到的數(shù)據(jù)，大部分人也會(huì)認(rèn)為這影響到人們的預(yù)期壽命。”并沒(méi)有參與這項(xiàng)研究的多米尼西說(shuō)道。