人民幣前路在何方 Renminbi What lies ahead

Li Keqiang did not shirk the issue of currency warswhen he spoke to the Financial Times in April.

今年4月接受英國《金融時報》采訪時，李克強并未回避貨幣戰(zhàn)的問題。

“We don’t want to see a scenario in which major economies trip over each other to devalue theircurrencies. That would lead to a currency war,” said China’s premier.

“我們不愿意看見貨幣競相貶值的狀態(tài)出現(xiàn)，那會出現(xiàn)貨幣大戰(zhàn)，”李克強說。

Currency intervention is an issue that has chilled US-China relations for more than a decadeand while it has gone quiet of late, it is threatening to resurface.

十多年來，匯率干預一直是一個導致中美關(guān)系冷淡的問題。盡管近來沉寂了下來，現(xiàn)在這一問題似乎正再次浮出水面。

China’s equity market shock, which from mid-June saw a wipeout of more than 30 per cent ofthe value of shares in Chinese companies, prompted a dramatic reaction from Beijing withregulators imposing a six-month ban on share sales by big shareholders.

從6月中旬開始，中國上市公司股票市值蒸發(fā)了逾30%，股市暴跌促使北京方面做出激烈回應(yīng)，監(jiān)管機構(gòu)出臺了大股東6個月內(nèi)禁止拋售股票的命令。

As China’s economy slows, could another strident reaction be forthcoming, by depressing thevalue of the renminbi in order to stimulate trade, in other words a breakout of the verycurrency war China has pledged not to undertake?

隨著中國經(jīng)濟放緩，北京方面是否即將做出另一個激烈回應(yīng)——通過壓低人民幣匯率來刺激貿(mào)易，換句話說，會不會爆發(fā)中國承諾不會挑起的貨幣大戰(zhàn)?

This depends on assessing the fair value of the renminbi. The currency was pegged to the dollaruntil 2005, since then Beijing has allowed it to rise, except for a two-year period around theglobal financial crisis.

這取決于對人民幣公允價值的評估。直到2005年，人民幣一直實行盯住美元的匯率制。此后，除了全球金融危機爆發(fā)后的兩年，北京方面允許人民幣升值。

From the end of the peg to the end of 2013, it rose in value against the dollar by a third.

從停止盯住美元到2013年底，人民幣對美元升值了三分之一。

After the dollar hit a low of Rmb6.05, the currency pair has for the past 18 months traded in aband of Rmb6.05 to 6.27.

在美元/人民幣匯率觸及6.05的低點以后，過去18個月內(nèi)一直在6.05到6.27的區(qū)間內(nèi)波動。

That, according to Aroop Chatterjee, foreign exchange strategist in Barclays, is where Beijingwants the renminbi to stay for a number of reasons.

巴克萊(Barclays)外匯策略師阿魯普查特吉(Aroop Chatterjee)認為，出于幾個原因，北京方面希望人民幣匯率維持在這一區(qū)間內(nèi)。

Chief among them is Beijing’s campaign to be included in Special Drawing Rights, the basket ofcurrencies afforded official reserve currency status by the International Monetary Fund. Adecision is expected later this year.

其中最主要的原因是北京方面致力于人民幣納入特別提款權(quán)(SDR)。特別提款權(quán)是國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)授予官方儲備貨幣地位的一籃子貨幣。預計決定將在今年晚些時候做出。

“Part [of the reason for the tight range] is related to the People’s Bank of China’s intention tokeep the renminbi stable and a lot of that is related to the potential for destabilising capitaloutflows,” says Mr Chatterjee.

“(窄幅波動的原因)部分與中國央行有意保持人民幣幣值穩(wěn)定有關(guān)，而中國央行之所以這樣，很大程度上與資本外流造成不穩(wěn)定的可能性相關(guān)，”查特吉表示。

“But there is also the political intent on SDR [special drawing rights]. They want to project apicture of stability to the IMF and the rest of the world.”

“但其中還有關(guān)于特別提款權(quán)的政治意圖。它們希望向IMF和世界其他地方展現(xiàn)出一種穩(wěn)定的景象。”

For these reasons, several currency strategists expect the renminbi to hang around the level ofRmb6.26 by the end of the year. But Daniel Tenengauzer, emerging markets forex strategistat RBC Capital Markets, demurs. He thinks Beijing will allow the band to widen.

出于這些原因，幾名貨幣策略師預計，到今年年底，美元/人民幣匯率會在6.26左右徘徊。但加拿大皇家銀行資本市場(RBC Capital Markets)新興市場外匯策略師丹尼爾礠坲戈澤(Daniel Tenengauzer)提出異議。他認為北京方面將允許這一區(qū)間擴大。

“Part of the internationalisation of the renminbi is a widening of the band and a more volatileexchange rate,” he says.

“人民幣國際化的一部分是浮動區(qū)間的擴大，以及匯率波動性加大，”他表示。

This opens up the debate on the renminbi’s valuation. The International Monetary Fund, in anotable statement in May, declared that it no longer believed the renminbi was undervalued.

這打開了有關(guān)人民幣估值的辯論。5月，IMF發(fā)表了一份令人矚目的聲明，宣稱不再認為人民幣被低估。

Where the value of the renminbi goes depends on China policy. Mr Gu reckons it will rise if Chinaaccepts lower growth and opens its capital account to global investors.

人民幣幣值走勢取決于中國的政策。他認為，如果中國接受更低的增長，并向全球投資者開放資本賬戶，人民幣幣值將上升。

But if it chooses to expand fiscal stimulus to support growth and continues to distortinvestment, he believes the current account surplus will shrink quickly and the renminbi willweaken.

但如果，中國選擇擴大財政刺激以支撐增長并繼續(xù)扭曲投資，他認為經(jīng)常賬戶盈余將迅速萎縮，人民幣將會走弱。

Ying Gu, Hong Kong-based emerging markets strategist for JPMorgan, agrees, particularly asChina’s current account surplus to GDP, an indicator for the currency’s valuation, has fallento 2.3 per cent.

摩根大通(JPMorgan)駐香港新興市場策略師Gu Ying也認同這一點，尤其是當前中國經(jīng)常賬戶盈余占GDP比例已跌至2.3%，該比例是貨幣估值的一個指標。

As the dollar strengthens through US Federal Reserve interest rate liberalisation, “I am afraidrenminbi will become too expensive”, he says.

隨著美元通過美聯(lián)儲(Fed)利率自由化而走強，“我擔心人民幣將變得過于昂貴，”他表示。

It already is, says Mr Tenengauzer. “A year ago, the currency was at fair value and now it’s 15per cent overvalued,” he says.

特南戈澤表示，現(xiàn)在人民幣已經(jīng)過于昂貴了。“1年前，該貨幣價值較為公允，現(xiàn)在已被高估了15%，”他表示。

Mr Chatterjee agrees. “The dollar has appreciated against the rest of the world but the dollar-renminbi pair has gone sideways. The renminbi is quite expensive,” he says.

查特吉認同前者的說法。“美元相對于世界其他地方貨幣升值，但美元/人民幣匯率走勢則是橫向的。人民幣相當昂貴，”他表示。

China’s economy is showing weakness, the country faces deflationary pressures and the shocksell-off in its equity markets points to the government needing to find ways to stabilise growthand minimise risks. Cuts in interest rates are likely.

中國經(jīng)濟正呈現(xiàn)出疲軟的態(tài)勢，該國面臨著通縮壓力，股市的劇烈拋售表明中國政府需要找到穩(wěn)定增長和最小化風險的方法。利率下調(diào)是有可能的。

Whether that amounts to a currency war is a question of interpretation.

這是否相當于貨幣戰(zhàn)，是一個如何詮釋的問題。

“In the near term, the focus is on SDR,” says Mr Chatterjee. “But further down the road, therisk to growth is to the downside. With broader dollar strength, weak growth will leadpolicymakers to accommodate a weaker exchange rate.

“在近期，重點是特別提款權(quán)，”查特吉說，“但再往前發(fā)展，增長將面臨下行風險。隨著美元進一步走強，疲弱的增長將導致政策制定者考慮削弱匯率。”

“If it was the case that the renminbi was moving because of intervention efforts, that would bedifferent. But there are clear signs in capital outflows, in the weak economy and in weakinflation that the macroeconomic backdrop supports a weaker currency.”

“如果人民幣的確因為干預而變動，情況將是不同的。但現(xiàn)在資本外流、經(jīng)濟疲軟和弱通脹方面都有明顯跡象表明，宏觀經(jīng)濟背景支持人民幣走弱。”