影響石油價(jià)格走勢(shì)五大因素

Oil’s volatile start to 2016 has continued, withprices back below $40. The following five factors areamong those that could determine crude’s nextmove.

油價(jià)延續(xù)了年初以來(lái)的動(dòng)蕩局面，目前再度跌破每桶40美元。以下五個(gè)因素可能決定原油的未來(lái)行情。

Output freeze

產(chǎn)量?jī)鼋Y(jié)

It is less than two weeks until a key meeting of largeproducers in Doha and the outcome is in doubt.

石油輸出國(guó)組織(OPEC，簡(jiǎn)稱：歐佩克)成員和其他大型產(chǎn)油國(guó)的一場(chǎng)關(guān)鍵會(huì)議還有不到兩周時(shí)間就要在多哈召開了，會(huì)議結(jié)果非常不確定。

Saudi Arabia’s Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman said last week that it would onlyagree to a hold on output if joined by Iran, something that seems unlikely given that Tehranhas vowed to lift exports as it emerges from years of sanctions.

上周，沙特副王儲(chǔ)穆罕默德•本•薩勒曼(Mohammed bin Salman)表示，唯有在伊朗也同意的情況下，沙特才會(huì)同意凍結(jié)產(chǎn)量——而伊朗似乎不太可能同意，因?yàn)樵搰?guó)在擺脫多年的制裁之后，已發(fā)誓要增加出口。

Before his statement, Opec delegates indicated that Saudi Arabia would be prepared to allowIran some leeway, despite their fierce rivalry.

在他如此表態(tài)之前，歐佩克的代表曾暗示，盡管沙特和伊朗激烈對(duì)抗，但沙特會(huì)愿意給伊朗留有一些余地。

While the prince’s comments may supersede those of the oil ministry, it is possible they fallshort of an edict, and are partially aimed at a domestic audience used to tough talk againstIran. Equally, they may be a pre-meeting bargaining chip to try to extract more concessionsfrom Iran, such as capping how much the country raises output before joining the freeze.

盡管這位副王儲(chǔ)的話或許推翻了沙特石油部官員的話，但副王儲(chǔ)的話可能不會(huì)落實(shí)為法令，在一定程度上可能是說(shuō)給習(xí)慣于聽到對(duì)伊朗強(qiáng)硬言論的沙特國(guó)內(nèi)民眾聽的。同樣，這些話或許是會(huì)議召開前的一塊談判籌碼，試圖使伊朗做出更多讓步，比如設(shè)定伊朗加入產(chǎn)量?jī)鼋Y(jié)前的增產(chǎn)上限。

Either way, its seems unlikely the world’s largest producers would risk meeting in Dohawithout a deal already pencilled in.

無(wú)論是哪種情況，世界上最大產(chǎn)油國(guó)手中還沒(méi)有一份談妥的協(xié)議就貿(mào)然去參加多哈會(huì)議，似乎是不太可能的。

“While a Doha deal might help to set a floor under oil prices, a sustained recovery willprobably require outright cuts in global supply as well as further increases in demand torebalance the market,” say analysts at Capital Economics.

“盡管一份多哈協(xié)議或許有助于為油價(jià)托底，但油價(jià)持續(xù)復(fù)蘇將很可能有賴于全球供應(yīng)的真正削減以及需求的進(jìn)一步增加使得市場(chǎng)實(shí)現(xiàn)再平衡，”凱投宏觀(Capital Economics)的分析師表示。

US supply

美國(guó)供應(yīng)

The US shale oil boom bears at least some of the responsibility for the glut that hasdecimated prices since mid-2014, but slowing US output may also hold the key to an eventualrecovery.

美國(guó)頁(yè)巖油繁榮對(duì)供應(yīng)過(guò)剩承擔(dān)至少部分責(zé)任，但美國(guó)產(chǎn)量放緩或許也對(duì)油價(jià)最終復(fù)蘇起到關(guān)鍵作用。自2014年年中以來(lái)，油價(jià)一直受到供應(yīng)過(guò)剩的嚴(yán)重打壓。

After proving more resilient to lower prices than many first assumed, US output is firmly on adownward trajectory, even as conventional production from areas such as the Gulf of Mexicocontinues to rise due to investments made when prices were above $100 a barrel.

此前的事實(shí)顯示，美國(guó)的石油產(chǎn)量對(duì)價(jià)格的降低比許多人一開始假定的更不敏感，如今美國(guó)的產(chǎn)量穩(wěn)步進(jìn)入了下降通道——即便由于在油價(jià)高于每桶100美元時(shí)進(jìn)行的投資，墨西哥灣等地區(qū)的傳統(tǒng)方式石油產(chǎn)量還在持續(xù)增加。

From 2008 to April 2015, US crude production almost doubled from 5m barrels a day to a peakof 9.7m b/d. But in the past year it has slipped by at least 5 per cent, with the latest dataindicating it was below 9.2m b/d in January.

從2008年到2015年4月，美國(guó)原油日產(chǎn)量幾乎翻了一番，從500萬(wàn)桶增加至970萬(wàn)桶的峰值。但在過(guò)去一年里，美國(guó)原油日產(chǎn)量降低了至少5%——最新數(shù)據(jù)顯示，1月的這個(gè)數(shù)字不到920萬(wàn)桶。

The top 25 US oil and gas producers expect a further drop of 4 per cent on average this year.The US Energy Information Agency sees supply by 2017 averaging about 8.2m b/d for the year— a 1.5m b/d decline from its peak.

美國(guó)最大的25家油氣生產(chǎn)商預(yù)計(jì)，今年產(chǎn)量平均將進(jìn)一步降低4%。美國(guó)能源信息署(EIA)認(rèn)為，2017年全年平均日供應(yīng)量將約為820萬(wàn)桶，較峰值下降150萬(wàn)桶。

Others are sceptical. Energy Aspects, a consultancy, thinks the projected supply fall may betoo high and reckons analysts are extrapolating data from smaller, cash-strapped producers thatare likely to be less able to weather low prices than the oil majors.

其他人表示懷疑。咨詢公司Energy Aspects認(rèn)為，預(yù)測(cè)的供應(yīng)量減幅或許太高了，并猜想，分析師的數(shù)據(jù)是根據(jù)資金緊張的中小生產(chǎn)商的情況推出的。這些生產(chǎn)商抵御低價(jià)影響的能力可能不如大型油企。

Have hedge funds had their fill?

對(duì)沖基金滿足了嗎?

Hedge fund positioning has tracked the moves in oil prices so far this year. After establishing anear record bet against the price in early January, when crude fell below $30 a barrel for thefirst time in 13 years, funds have dramatically reversed course on hopes of a deal to freezeoutput. By the end of March, funds’ net long position — the difference between bets on risingand falling prices — was close to the highest level on record, totalling the equivalent of morethan 0.5bn barrels of crude.

今年迄今，對(duì)沖基金一直在根據(jù)油價(jià)行情調(diào)整頭寸。1月初，原油價(jià)格13年來(lái)首次跌破每桶30美元時(shí)，對(duì)沖基金持有的押注油價(jià)下跌的頭寸達(dá)到了近乎創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的水平。現(xiàn)在，由于寄望于產(chǎn)量?jī)鼋Y(jié)協(xié)議的達(dá)成，對(duì)沖基金又大幅逆轉(zhuǎn)了押注方向。到3月底，對(duì)沖基金的凈做多頭寸——即押注油價(jià)上漲和下跌的頭寸之差——已接近歷史最高水平，總量相當(dāng)于超過(guò)5億桶原油。

But the tide may be turning again. Last week traders reduced bets on higher prices and addedto bets on another sell-off.

但風(fēng)向或許會(huì)再次變化。上周，交易員們降低了押注油價(jià)上漲的頭寸，增加了押注原油再遭拋售的頭寸。

“Despite showing signs of improving, fundamentals are not yet strong enough to support asustained recovery,” says Ole Hansen at Saxo Bank.

“盡管已出現(xiàn)改善跡象，但基本面尚未強(qiáng)到足以支撐油價(jià)持續(xù)復(fù)蘇的地步，”盛寶銀行(Saxo Bank)的奧勒•漢森(Ole Hansen)稱。

Production

產(chǎn)量

Low prices can increase the risk of production stoppages. Baghdad’s long-running dispute withIraqi Kurdistan over independent oil sales has curtailed output from the north of the countryby about 150,000 b/d. In Nigeria, Shell has declared force majeure on about 250,000 b/d ofexports after an explosion disrupted its Forcados export terminal. But ahead of the output“freeze” meeting all countries appear to be trying to maximise production. Russia’s output hit apost-Soviet high of 10.9m b/d in March, and Saudi Arabia and Kuwait may restart production ata field in the jointly controlled “neutral zone”.

低價(jià)可能會(huì)增加生產(chǎn)中斷的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。巴格達(dá)方面與伊拉克庫(kù)爾德斯坦地區(qū)(Iraqi Kurdistan)在后者獨(dú)立出售石油問(wèn)題上的長(zhǎng)期糾紛，已使該國(guó)北部的日產(chǎn)量減少了約15萬(wàn)桶。在尼日利亞，一次爆炸破壞了殼牌(Shell)在?？ǘ嗨?Forcados)的出口終端，該公司隨后宣布，受不可抗力影響，停止每日約25萬(wàn)桶的出口。但在產(chǎn)量“凍結(jié)”會(huì)議前，所有國(guó)家似乎都在努力把產(chǎn)量提到最高。俄羅斯3月的日產(chǎn)量達(dá)到1090萬(wàn)桶的后蘇聯(lián)時(shí)代高點(diǎn)，沙特和科威特或許會(huì)重啟位于兩國(guó)共同控制的“中立區(qū)”的一處油田的生產(chǎn)。

Global demand

全球需求

Demand is 2016’s wild card. Low prices helped propel demand growth in 2015, but the picturefor this year is mixed. The International Energy Agency sees 1.2m b/d of growth — higher thanthe average over the previous five years. If that level is reached or exceeded, most analystsexpect the market to start to balance towards the end of the year.

2016年局勢(shì)的變數(shù)在于需求。2015年，低價(jià)幫助推高了需求增長(zhǎng)，但今年的局面是復(fù)雜的。國(guó)際能源署(IEA)認(rèn)為，今年日需求量將增加120萬(wàn)桶，增幅高于過(guò)去5年的平均水平。如果增幅達(dá)到或超過(guò)這一水平，大多數(shù)分析師預(yù)計(jì)，到年底市場(chǎng)會(huì)開始達(dá)成平衡。

“Demand at these levels has been growing strongly,” says Henry Peabody at Eaton Vance, afund manager. “Non-Opec production is in decline, and capital is not allocated to new projects.We should start to see the market rebalancing later this year or in 2017.

“當(dāng)前價(jià)格水平上的需求一直增長(zhǎng)強(qiáng)勁，”基金管理公司億廷繁世(Eaton Vance)的亨利•皮博迪(HenryPeabody)表示，“歐佩克以外國(guó)家的產(chǎn)量在下降，沒(méi)有資本被配置到新項(xiàng)目中去。在今年晚些時(shí)候或2017年，我們應(yīng)會(huì)開始看到市場(chǎng)再平衡。”