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4月份中國(guó)房?jī)r(jià)創(chuàng)兩年來(lái)比較大漲幅

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2016年05月21日

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Chinese house prices rose at the fastest pace for twoyears in April, despite accentuated oversupply afterinvestment poured into the construction sector inthe first quarter.

4月份,中國(guó)房?jī)r(jià)以兩年來(lái)最快的速度上漲,盡管今年首季度投資涌入建筑行業(yè)后住房供應(yīng)過剩有所加劇。

The price of new residential buildings rose 6.2 percent in the year to April, according to a Reutersindex calculated from data released by the NationalBureau of Statistics.

路透社(Reuters)根據(jù)中國(guó)國(guó)家統(tǒng)計(jì)局(NBS)發(fā)布的數(shù)據(jù)計(jì)算得出的指數(shù)顯示,在截止4月份的一年里,中國(guó)新建住宅銷售價(jià)格上漲了6.2%。

At the same time, investment in real estate construction in the first four months of this yearrose 7.2 per cent compared with the same period last year.

而今年頭4個(gè)月的房地產(chǎn)建設(shè)投資同比增長(zhǎng)了7.2%。

In spite of vast inventories of unsold properties, house prices in China’s second and third-tiercities have started to close the gap with the country’s “first-tier” cities of Beijing, Shanghai,Guangzhou and Shenzhen.

盡管未售住房庫(kù)存龐大,但中國(guó)二三線城市與北京、上海、廣州和深圳這些“一線城市”的房?jī)r(jià)差距已開始收窄。

Earlier this year the government launched a campaign to persuade rural migrants to settlein second and third-tier cities. For those migrant workers without an urban hukou (householdregistration), buying a house in the city is a route to securing city-standard schooling for theirchildren.

今年早些時(shí)候,中國(guó)政府發(fā)起了一場(chǎng)勸說(shuō)農(nóng)民工在二三線城市定居的運(yùn)動(dòng)。對(duì)那些沒有城市戶口的農(nóng)民工而言,在城里買房可為他們的孩子提供一個(gè)機(jī)會(huì)、享受城市標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的學(xué)校教育。

“Average prices continue to increase month on month but a new trend has emerged: the rateof increase is slowing in first-tier cities and picking up in second and third-tier cities,” wrote LiuJianwei, of the National Bureau of Statistics.

國(guó)家統(tǒng)計(jì)局城市司高級(jí)統(tǒng)計(jì)師劉建偉表示:“環(huán)比上漲城市個(gè)數(shù)繼續(xù)增加,城市間漲勢(shì)出現(xiàn)新變化,一線城市漲幅放緩,二、三線城市漲幅擴(kuò)大。

“Year on year . . . average prices in third-tier cities are now rising rather than falling.”

“同比……三線城市由降轉(zhuǎn)升。”

The government has turned to the construction sector to provide stimulus in tricky times,leading to concerns of property oversupply, particularly in less desirable second and third-tiercities.

面對(duì)艱難的經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢(shì),中國(guó)政府已轉(zhuǎn)而求助建筑行業(yè)來(lái)提供刺激,這使得人們擔(dān)心,房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)會(huì)供應(yīng)過剩,尤其是在需求不那么旺盛的二三線城市。

As a result, local governments in those cities face a tricky combination of tasks: they mustreduce unsold stock yet maintain prices and economic growth. New house builds in such citiessurged in March, suggesting local governments were prioritising growth over inventoryreduction.

其結(jié)果是,這些城市的地方政府面臨著一對(duì)棘手的任務(wù):它們必須去庫(kù)存,同時(shí)還要維持住房?jī)r(jià)和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)。3月份,這些城市的新建住宅數(shù)量大幅增加,說(shuō)明地方政府優(yōu)先考慮的是經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)而非去庫(kù)存。

“Credit is easily available, meaning mortgages are still cheap,” said Rosealea Yao of GavekalDragonomics, an economics consultancy. “It is difficult to say what effect the increase in newhousing starts will have on prices. Although residential properties take around two years tobuild, roughly 70 per cent of houses are sold before completion.

“信貸很容易獲得,意味著按揭貸款依然便宜,”經(jīng)濟(jì)咨詢機(jī)構(gòu)龍洲經(jīng)訊(Gavekal Dragonomics)的咬麗薔(Rosealea Yao)說(shuō),“很難說(shuō)新住宅開工數(shù)量的增長(zhǎng)會(huì)給價(jià)格帶來(lái)什么影響。盡管住宅建成需要2年左右的時(shí)間,但大約70%的房子在完工前就售出了。

“There is huge regional divergence — inventories are coming down in the east, pushing upprices, while inventories are still huge in the north.”

“地區(qū)差異很大——東部地區(qū)的庫(kù)存在減少,推高了價(jià)格,北部地區(qū)的庫(kù)存依然很大。”

Despite an increase in supply, second and third-tier cities have managed to boost home pricegrowth, with bigger rises recorded in April than the previous month.

盡管供應(yīng)增加,二三線城市仍成功提振了房?jī)r(jià)的漲勢(shì),4月份的房?jī)r(jià)漲幅高于3月份。

First-tier cities have seen rapid price rises, with Shenzhen, for example, recording a 63 percent increase in the year to April. Shanghai, Shenzhen and Beijing have implemented policies tocool price rises including increasing the downpayment requirement on mortgages on secondhomes and expanding restrictions that increase the waiting times for prospective buyerswithout local hukou registration.

一線城市房?jī)r(jià)快速上漲。以深圳為例,在截至4月份的一年中,深圳房?jī)r(jià)上漲了62%。上海、深圳和北京已實(shí)施政策給房?jī)r(jià)降溫,包括提高二套房按揭首付款下限,以及延長(zhǎng)無(wú)當(dāng)?shù)貞艨诘臐撛谫?gòu)房者的等待期。

Such cooling policies appear to have started paying off, with April’s monthly increase in prices ofnew properties on tier-one cities lower in April than in March.

這類給樓市降溫的政策似乎已初見成效,4月份一線城市新建住宅價(jià)格的月漲幅要低于3月份。

On Wednesday 21st Century Finance, a domestic newspaper, reported that the city of Suzhouin Jiangsu province would become the first second-tier city to bring in housing purchaserestrictions.

中國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)報(bào)紙《21世紀(jì)經(jīng)濟(jì)報(bào)道》周三報(bào)道,江蘇省蘇州市將成為首個(gè)出臺(tái)房屋限購(gòu)措施的二線城市。


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