2050年全球五分之四的老年人口將會(huì)居住在新興市場(chǎng)

Four-fifths of the world’s elderly population will livein emerging markets by 2050, upending the viewthat ageing is primarily an issue for developedcountries.

到2050年，全球五分之四的老年人口將會(huì)居住在新興市場(chǎng)，這顛覆了老齡化主要是發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家問(wèn)題的觀點(diǎn)。

China alone will see the number of over-60s jumpfrom 209m (15 per cent of the population) today to492m (36 per cent) by the middle of the century,according to estimates from Bank of America MerrillLynch. Public finances in countries ranging from Brazil to Turkey are also likely to be put understrain by a surge in retirees.

美銀美林(Bank of America Merrill Lynch)估計(jì)，到本世紀(jì)中葉，僅中國(guó)一個(gè)國(guó)家的60歲以上人口就會(huì)從如今的2.09億(占人口總數(shù)的15%)大幅增至4.92億(占人口總數(shù)的36%)。從巴西到土耳其，許多國(guó)家的公共財(cái)政也可能因退休人口飆升而承壓。

“We are living in the midst of the most remarkable demographic transition in history withlife expectancy [likely] to reach 77.1 by 2050, versus 48 in 1950, the global 60-pluspopulation [expected] to grow to 2.1bn by 2050, versus 901m today, and life expectancyincreasing by one year every five years,” the bank says in a report entitled The Silver Economy— Global Ageing Primer.

該行在題為《銀發(fā)經(jīng)濟(jì)——全球老齡化初階》(The Silver Economy — Global Ageing Primer)的報(bào)告中表示：“我們正置身于史上最引人注目的人口結(jié)構(gòu)轉(zhuǎn)變過(guò)程中，到2050年預(yù)期壽命有望達(dá)到77.1歲，遠(yuǎn)高于1950年的48歲，到2050年全球60歲以上人口預(yù)計(jì)將增至21億，遠(yuǎn)高于如今的9.01億，預(yù)期壽命每5年延長(zhǎng)一歲。”

“The extension of average lifespan is one of the greatest achievements of humanity,” BofAadds, citing UN forecasts that while the global population is expected to have risen 3.7 timesbetween 1950 and 2050, the size of the 60-plus demographic is predicted to rise tenfold overthe same period, and those 80-plus to rise 26-fold.

美銀美林在報(bào)告中補(bǔ)充稱：“平均壽命延長(zhǎng)是人類最偉大的成就之一。”它援引聯(lián)合國(guó)的預(yù)測(cè)稱，盡管預(yù)計(jì)全球人口從1950年到2050年將增長(zhǎng)3.7倍，但同期60歲以上人口的規(guī)模預(yù)計(jì)將增長(zhǎng)10倍，80歲以上人口增長(zhǎng)26倍。

The document builds on figures showing a striking rise in longevity in sub-Saharan Africa,the world’s poorest region, since 2000, with 30 countries seeing life expectancy rise more than10 per cent in the past 15 years.

該報(bào)告建立在如下數(shù)據(jù)基礎(chǔ)之上：自2000年以來(lái)，全球最貧窮的地區(qū)——撒哈拉以南非洲的預(yù)期壽命顯著上升，30個(gè)國(guó)家的預(yù)期壽命在過(guò)去15年里增長(zhǎng)10%以上。

Given the dramatic trends, BofA forecasts that by 2050 “emerging markets all over the worldwill be as old as Japan is today”.

鑒于這些戲劇化的趨勢(shì)，美銀美林預(yù)計(jì)，到2050年，“全世界新興市場(chǎng)的老年人口比例將和現(xiàn)在的日本一樣高”。

In China, for instance, based on UN data, it estimates that 27.6 per cent of the population willbe aged 60-plus by 2050 (up from 8.2 per cent as of 2010), compared with 22.9 per cent inJapan today. It estimates that 22.8 per cent of Brazilians and 20.9 per cent of Russians will alsobe sexagenarians or older.

例如，該行根據(jù)聯(lián)合國(guó)數(shù)據(jù)估計(jì)，在中國(guó)，到2050年27.6%的人口將是60歲以上(2010年該比例是8.2%)，而日本現(xiàn)在的比例是22.9%。美銀美林估計(jì)，屆時(shí)巴西60歲以上的老年人口比例也將達(dá)到22.8%，俄羅斯將達(dá)到20.9%。

Overall, BofA envisages that 80 per cent of the over-60s will live in emerging markets by2050, with a quarter of the population in both Asia and Latin America being of this age.

整體而言，美銀美林估計(jì)，到2050年，在60歲以上的老年人當(dāng)中，80%將居住在新興市場(chǎng)，亞洲和拉丁美洲有四分之一人口將是60歲以上的老年人。

The Asia-Pacific region is expected to account for 61 per cent of these seniors by 2050, and two-thirds of the rise in those aged 60-plus, as the first chart shows. Africa and Latin America areexpected to account for a further quarter of the growth in seniors, with Europe and NorthAmerica seeing barely any rise, despite the panic about ageing in these regions.

正如第一張圖表所示，到2050年，預(yù)計(jì)亞太地區(qū)的60歲以上老年人口占到全球的61%，而且60歲以上新增人口的三分之二來(lái)自該地區(qū)。預(yù)計(jì)非洲和拉美將占到新增老年人口的另外四分之一，而歐洲和北美的老年人口幾乎沒(méi)有增長(zhǎng)，盡管這些地區(qū)對(duì)老齡化感到恐慌。

Moreover, this is not simply a case of emerging markets mirroring the trends alreadywitnessed in the developed world. Instead, the transformation in the emerging world ishappening at a rate inconceivable to most westerners.

此外，這不只是新興市場(chǎng)重現(xiàn)發(fā)達(dá)世界趨勢(shì)的問(wèn)題。相反，新興市場(chǎng)國(guó)家人口結(jié)構(gòu)的這種轉(zhuǎn)變速度對(duì)大多數(shù)西方人來(lái)說(shuō)是不可想象的。

BofA quotes data suggesting that it took France 115 years to double the share of itspopulation aged 65-plus from 7 to 14 per cent, Sweden 85 years, Australia 73 years and theUS 69 years.

美銀美林援引數(shù)據(jù)顯示，法國(guó)65歲以上人口比例從7%增至14%用了115年，瑞典用了85年，澳大利亞用了73年，而美國(guó)用了69年。

In contrast, South Korea is expected to see the same transformation in just 18 years,Thailand and Brazil in 21 years, China in 23, Tunisia in 24 and Chile in 26, as the second chartshows.

相比之下，如第二張圖表顯示，預(yù)計(jì)韓國(guó)在短短18年就會(huì)完成同樣的轉(zhuǎn)變，泰國(guó)和巴西是21年，中國(guó)是23年，突尼斯是24年，智利是26年。

Moreover, it is only likely to take South Korea a further nine years to see its 65-plus cohort riseby a further 7 per cent of the population to 21 per cent.

此外，預(yù)計(jì)韓國(guó)65歲以上老年人口比例很可能再過(guò)9年就會(huì)進(jìn)一步上升7個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，至21%。

China is expected to witness the same transformation in 11 years, Thailand in 14 and Brazilin 17, compared with 55 years in the UK, 42 in France and 40 in Sweden.

預(yù)計(jì)中國(guó)將在11年時(shí)間里完成同樣的轉(zhuǎn)變，泰國(guó)是14年，巴西是17年，相比之下，英國(guó)是55年，法國(guó)是42年，而瑞典是40年。

While rising longevity is clearly far better than the alternative, the advent of what BofA refersto as “peak youth” (globally, the number of people aged 65-plus is expected to outnumber theunder-fives for the first time in human history by 2020) clearly throws up a series of challenges,particularly in the emerging world where resources are scarcer.

盡管壽命延長(zhǎng)顯然比縮短好得多，但美銀美林所稱的“年輕人峰值”(peak youth )的來(lái)臨顯然帶來(lái)了一系列挑戰(zhàn)，尤其是在資源較為匱乏的新興世界。“年輕人峰值”是指到2020年，全球65歲以上人口數(shù)量預(yù)計(jì)將在人類歷史上首次超過(guò)5歲以下人口的數(shù)量。

“Preparing for this demographic tidal wave is a pressing imperative for governments,businesses and individuals alike as people outlive assets,” BofA says.

美銀美林表示：“對(duì)政府、企業(yè)和個(gè)人來(lái)說(shuō)，準(zhǔn)備應(yīng)對(duì)這種人口結(jié)構(gòu)浪潮迫在眉睫，很多人的資產(chǎn)將不足以讓他們安享天年。”

The bank warns that age-related spending already constitutes 40 per cent of publicexpenditure in the developed world, and “rising age-related costs are likely to push 60 percent of sovereigns into speculative grade”. Globally, two-thirds of employees are not saving forretirement.

它警告稱，在發(fā)達(dá)世界，與年齡有關(guān)的支出已經(jīng)占到公共支出的40%，而且“年齡相關(guān)成本日益增長(zhǎng)可能推動(dòng)60%的主權(quán)債務(wù)降至投機(jī)級(jí)別”。就全球而言，三分之二的雇員沒(méi)有為退休儲(chǔ)蓄。

Projections from the OECD, the club of mostly rich countries, suggest the changingdemographics will hit the finances of EM governments hard.

成員大多是富裕國(guó)家的經(jīng)合組織(OECD)的預(yù)測(cè)顯示，日益改變的人口結(jié)構(gòu)將重創(chuàng)新興市場(chǎng)政府的財(cái)政。

It forecasts that by 2050, the cost of funding public pensions will edge up to 6.1 per cent ofgross domestic product in the US and 8.1 per cent in the UK, while actually falling to 12.8 percent of GDP in France.

該組織預(yù)計(jì)，到2050年，美國(guó)公共養(yǎng)老金融資成本與國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值(GDP)之比將略升至6.1%，英國(guó)是8.1%，而法國(guó)實(shí)際上還將下降至12.8%。

In contrast, the OECD sees spending on public pensions surging from 6.3 per cent of GDP to17 per cent in Turkey, from 9.1 per cent to 16.8 per cent in Brazil and from 3.4 per cent to 9.2per cent in China, as the final chart shows.

相比之下，如最后一張圖表顯示，經(jīng)合組織發(fā)現(xiàn)，土耳其公共養(yǎng)老金支出與GDP之比將從6.3%升至17%，巴西從9.1%升至16.8%，中國(guó)從3.4%升至9.2%。

Ageing populations are also likely to force many EM governments to spend more on healthcare,BofA argues. At present, emerging economies spend only 5.6 per cent of GDP on healthcare,compared with 12.5 per cent in developed countries, according to the World Economic Forum.

美銀美林提出，人口老齡化還很可能迫使許多新興市場(chǎng)政府加大醫(yī)療支出。世界經(jīng)濟(jì)論壇(World EconomicForum)的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，目前新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體在醫(yī)療方面的支出只占到GDP的5.6%，而發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家的這一比例為12.5%。

Yet, by 2030, China and India will have at least 380m diabetics, seven times the number in theUS, the World Health Organisation forecasts.

然而，世界衛(wèi)生組織(World Health Organisation)預(yù)測(cè)，到2030年，中國(guó)和印度的糖尿病患者將至少達(dá)到3.8億，是美國(guó)的7倍。

As a result of such trends, the WEF forecasts that health spending in the emerging world willrise at an annual rate of 10.7 per cent up until 2022, far faster than the 3.7 per cent growthenvisaged in developed countries.

世界經(jīng)濟(jì)論壇預(yù)計(jì)，此類趨勢(shì)造成的結(jié)果是，新興世界的醫(yī)療支出在2022年前將以每年10.7%的速度增長(zhǎng)，遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超過(guò)發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家3.7%的預(yù)計(jì)增速。