研究：英國將躲過衰退，但退歐仍損害經濟

Two leading City institutions have cancelled predictions of an EU referendum recession and revised their economic forecasts higher in response to better than expected surveys.

面對好于預期的調查數據，倫敦金融城兩家頂級機構撤銷了退歐公投會導致英國經濟衰退的預測，并調高了英國增長前景。

Economists from Credit Suisse and Morgan Stanley lifted growth predictions for 2016 and 2017, removing the expectation of a recession, but they said the Brexit vote would still slow growth.

瑞信(Credit Suisse)和摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)的經濟學家調高了英國2016年和2017年的增長預測，撤銷了衰退預測，但他們表示，退歐公投結果仍將壓低增長率。

The upward revisions followed good August results in the three main purchasing managers’ surveys — for the services, manufacturing and construction sectors.

此次上調增長預期之前，8月的三項主要采購經理人指數(服務業(yè)、制造業(yè)和建筑業(yè))均表現喜人。

Credit Suisse increased its forecast for 2016 growth from 1 per cent to 1.9 per cent and its 2017 forecast from a contraction of 1 per cent to growth of 0.5 per cent.

瑞信把2016年的增長預測從1%上調至1.9%，把2017年的預測從收縮1%，修訂為增長0.5%。

Morgan Stanley said it had changed its forecast because of the latest data “from a sharp slowdown and Brecession, to a lesser slowdown, which narrowly avoids a technical recession”.

摩根士丹利表示，最新數據的公布導致其調整了英國增長預期，“從大幅放緩和退歐導致的衰退，調整為更輕微的放緩，避免一場技術性衰退”。

Both banks expected Brexit would harm the UK economy and both expected the shock would be felt after the Article 50 leaving process was triggered rather than the result itself.

這兩家銀行預測退歐將損害英國經濟，并都預計，在英國依照里斯本條約第50條(Article 50)啟動退歐進程(而非退歐公投結果出來)之后，英國經濟將感受到沖擊。

Melanie Baker of Morgan Stanley said when households notice changes to the economy, they are likely to become more reluctant to spend. “We expect current resilience will be undermined over time by firms holding back on investment and hiring, and an erosion of purchasing power, as the weaker GBP drives a pick-up in inflation,” she said.

摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)的梅拉妮•貝克(Melanie Baker)稱，當家家戶戶注意到經濟上的變化時，他們可能會變得更不愿意支出。“我們預計，隨著時間的推移，企業(yè)不愿投資和招聘將削弱當前的韌性，而隨著英鎊疲軟推高通脹，購買力會受到侵蝕。”

Morgan Stanley revised its forecasts up from 1.2 to 1.9 per cent for 2016 and in 2017 from 0.5 to 0.6 per cent.

摩根士丹利將2016年英國增長預測由1.2%上調至1.9%，2017年增長預測由0.5%上調至0.6%。

Many economists have been revising their forecasts up in response to the latest data, but almost all still expect the UK economy to perform worse after Brexit.

很多經濟學家都在根據最新數據上調英國增長預期，但是幾乎所有人都仍然預期，英國經濟在退歐后表現更糟。