配資助推中國(guó)大宗商品期貨繁榮

Chinese hedge funds are providing margin finance for leveraged bets on the country’s booming commodity futures market, in an echo of the practices that led to last year's stock market boom and bust.

中國(guó)的對(duì)沖基金正在提供保證金融資，使投資者可以對(duì)該國(guó)火爆的大宗商品市場(chǎng)進(jìn)行杠桿化押注。這跟去年曾導(dǎo)致股市繁榮與蕭條的做法很相似。

Futures prices for the so-called ferrous complex of steel, iron ore, coking coal and coke have risen sharply this year as Chinese fiscal and monetary stimulus has produced a revival of construction activity in real estate and infrastructure.

由于中國(guó)的財(cái)政和貨幣刺激政策導(dǎo)致了房地產(chǎn)和基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)活動(dòng)的復(fù)蘇，所以今年鋼材、鐵礦石、焦煤和焦炭等鐵相關(guān)商品的期貨價(jià)格大幅上漲。

Rising commodity prices have in turn fuelled speculation in the futures markets. Turnover for front month coking coal futures traded in Dalian hit Rmb1.2tn in October, the second-largest month on record behind April, when China was first gripped by a commodities mania.

這些大宗商品價(jià)格上漲反過來刺激了期貨市場(chǎng)的投機(jī)。10月，大連商品交易所即月焦煤期貨成交量達(dá)到760萬，為今年成交量第三大的月份，排在3月和4月之后。三、四兩個(gè)月份，中國(guó)第一次出現(xiàn)大宗商品熱潮。

Commodity trading has surged in China as retail investors, rich individuals and wealth managers use the sector as a quick and easy way to place leveraged bets on the domestic economy or government reforms.

中國(guó)大宗商品交易量發(fā)生激增，因?yàn)樯敉顿Y者、富裕人士和財(cái)富管理機(jī)構(gòu)都把該行業(yè)作為對(duì)國(guó)內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)或政府改革進(jìn)行杠桿化押注的一條快速、簡(jiǎn)捷的途徑。

The surge in speculation activity has rattled global commodity markets, causing a sharp run-up in the price of raw materials such as steel and iron ore futures. That has astonished western trading houses and analysts accustomed to following the fundamentals of supply and demand.

投機(jī)活動(dòng)激增為全球大宗商品市場(chǎng)帶來了波動(dòng)，造成原材料(如鋼鐵和鐵礦石期貨)價(jià)格的大幅上漲。這讓習(xí)慣于追蹤供求基本面的西方交易機(jī)構(gòu)和分析師感到震驚。

Some hedge funds are also using structured investment products to provide margin loans to investors looking to ride the futures boom. Hedge funds generally buy the senior tranche, which promises a fixed return. Others buy the subordinate tranche, putting up some of their money as margin and borrowing funds from the senior tranche to enlarge the investment.

有些對(duì)沖基金也在使用結(jié)構(gòu)化投資產(chǎn)品，為期待從期貨繁榮中分一杯羹的投資者提供保證金貸款。對(duì)沖基金通常購買承諾固定收益的優(yōu)先級(jí)份額。其他人購買劣后份額，使用他們的部分資金作為保證金，從優(yōu)先級(jí)份額中借入資金，以擴(kuò)大投資規(guī)模。

Providing financing for retail investors also represents a change of tack by Chinese hedge funds which in 2015 roiled global commodity markets directly with several well timed attacks on metals such as copper.

為散戶投資者提供融資，也體現(xiàn)了中國(guó)對(duì)沖基金的策略變化。2015年，中國(guó)對(duì)沖基金對(duì)銅等金屬發(fā)起了幾次時(shí)機(jī)把握得很好的攻擊，直接攪動(dòng)了全球大宗商品市場(chǎng)。

A hedge fund manager in Shanghai said: “These are hedge funds looking for fixed returns. They’re not familiar with commodities, so strategy looks good to them. Someone else takes the big risk.”

上海的一名對(duì)沖基金經(jīng)理說：“這些是尋求固定收益的對(duì)沖基金。他們不熟悉大宗商品，所以策略看起來很合適他們。讓別人去承擔(dān)巨大的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。”

But this form of margin lending, known in Chinese as peizi, mirrors the type of shadow bank-style margin financing that helped fuel the Chinese stock market boom last year. Once the market turned, margin calls amplified losses as investors were forced to liquidate their holdings to repay loans.

但是這種形式的保證金貸款——中文稱為“配資”——類似于去年推動(dòng)中國(guó)股市繁榮的那種影子銀行式融資。一旦市場(chǎng)轉(zhuǎn)向，追加保證金的要求就放大了投資者的損失，因?yàn)橥顿Y者被迫平倉以償還借款。

Regulated margin lending through securities brokerages for stock market investment caps leverage at Rmb2 of borrowed funds for every Rmb1 of the investor’s own money. The 21st century Business Herald reported on Wednesday that peizi for commodity futures investment can reach as high as 4:1.

用通過券商獲得的合法保證金融資來投資股市，最高杠桿為兩倍。《21世紀(jì)經(jīng)濟(jì)報(bào)道》(21st Century Business Herald)周三報(bào)道稱，通過配資渠道投資商品期貨的杠桿可能高達(dá)4倍。

An official at the National Development and Reform Commission, China’s top economic planner, told state media this week that recent increases in coal prices are “irrational”, citing speculation as one explanation.

本周，中國(guó)最高經(jīng)濟(jì)規(guī)劃?rùn)C(jī)構(gòu)國(guó)家發(fā)改委(NDRC)的一位官員對(duì)國(guó)有媒體表示，近期煤炭?jī)r(jià)格的上漲是“非理性的”，并把投機(jī)引述為其中一個(gè)原因。

A trader at a futures brokerage in Shanghai said: “The speculative element in the market is very big right now. End users and those trying to do hedging are getting killed.”

上海某期貨經(jīng)紀(jì)公司的一名交易員說：“目前市場(chǎng)上的投機(jī)色彩非常重。最終用戶和那些試圖做套期保值的人被害慘。”

Margin finance is not the only reason for the rise in futures prices this year. The government’s campaign of “supply-side reform”, which is focused on shutting down excess capacity in steel, coal and non-ferrous metals, is also playing an important role. Regulators are controlling issuance of structured investment products more tightly given the role of peizi in last year’s stock boom.

保證金融資并不是今年期貨價(jià)格上漲的唯一原因。中國(guó)政府的“供給側(cè)改革”舉措也發(fā)揮了重要作用。此項(xiàng)改革的重點(diǎn)是去除鋼鐵、煤炭和有色金屬的過剩產(chǎn)能。鑒于配資在去年的股票繁榮中所起的作用，監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)已開始更嚴(yán)格地控制結(jié)構(gòu)化投資產(chǎn)品的發(fā)行。

Equally important, say analysts, is the wave of money sloshing through the financial system in search of decent returns. The mainland stock market has mostly traded sideways this year following last year’s boom turned bust, with the appeal of equities also undermined by sharp rises in bonds and real estate.

分析師們說，同樣重要的是，金融體系中存在的那股正尋找像樣回報(bào)的資金潮。今年中國(guó)內(nèi)地股市基本都在橫向盤整，債券和房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格的急劇上漲也削弱了股票的吸引力。

Wang Hong Ying, director of the China Financial Derivatives Investment Institute, said: “Interest rates are in a downward cycle. Lots of idle funds can’t fund good investment channels. When this money enters a market where supply and demand are already out of balance, it will push up prices for ferrous complex futures.”

中國(guó)金融衍生品投資研究院(China Financial Derivatives Investment Institute)院長(zhǎng)王紅英表示：“當(dāng)前利率處于下行周期。大量閑置資金找不到好的投資渠道。隨著這些資金進(jìn)入一個(gè)供求原本就已失衡的市場(chǎng)，它將推高鐵相關(guān)商品的期貨合約的價(jià)格。”