阿里巴巴擬輸出“光棍節(jié)”

With an opening concert from pop star Katy Perry and an appearance by former basketball player Kobe Bryant, China’s Singles Day sale — Alibaba’s annual orgy of consumption — kicks off this week with more glitz and money than ever before.

借助流行歌手凱蒂•佩里(Katty Perry)舉辦揭幕演唱會(huì)和退役籃球運(yùn)動(dòng)員科比•布萊恩特(Kobe Bryant)出場(chǎng)，阿里巴巴(Alibaba)的年度消費(fèi)狂歡——中國(guó)光棍節(jié)銷(xiāo)售活動(dòng)——本周以前所未有的排場(chǎng)和資金規(guī)模啟動(dòng)。

The 24-hour sale, which takes place on November 11 (more graphically, 11.11) was not invented by Alibaba but the ecommerce group has made it a fixture of the retail calendar. Now the company plans to use the brouhaha around the event to launch itself beyond mainland China.

這一發(fā)生在11月11日的24小時(shí)銷(xiāo)售活動(dòng)并不是阿里巴巴的發(fā)明，但這家電子商務(wù)集團(tuán)已令該日期成為零售業(yè)日歷中的一個(gè)固定節(jié)日。如今，該公司打算利用圍繞這一活動(dòng)的喧囂，將其推廣至中國(guó)境外。

As a China-only event, Singles Day has already blown America’s Black Friday out of the water. Alibaba turned over $14.3bn on November 11 last year, compared to the $11.1bn spent online in the US over the whole five-day period from Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday, which includes Black Friday when retailers kick off the holiday season with big discounts.

作為一個(gè)只存在于中國(guó)的活動(dòng)，光棍節(jié)已經(jīng)遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超越了美國(guó)的“黑色星期五”(Black Friday)。去年11月11日阿里巴巴的營(yíng)業(yè)額達(dá)到143億美元。相比之下，從感恩節(jié)到“超級(jí)星期一”(Cyber Monday)的整個(gè)五天時(shí)間里(涵蓋美國(guó)各零售商以大幅折扣啟動(dòng)圣誕假日銷(xiāo)售的黑色星期五)，美國(guó)的網(wǎng)購(gòu)花銷(xiāo)為111億美元。

The company is exploiting a trove of big data gathered through its retail, streaming and payment platforms in China, and this year it is launching a pilot programme targeting Singles Day shoppers in Hong Kong and Taiwan for the first time. Next year it plans to target Southeast Asia.

該公司正在挖掘通過(guò)其零售、流媒體及支付平臺(tái)收集的大數(shù)據(jù)。今年，它要在香港和臺(tái)灣首次推出面向光棍節(jié)購(gòu)物者的試點(diǎn)計(jì)劃。明年，該公司還打算以東南亞地區(qū)的購(gòu)物者為目標(biāo)。

It is also expanding via mergers and acquisitions, such as its stakes in Southeast Asian ecommerce group Lazada.

此外，該公司還通過(guò)并購(gòu)——比如其在東南亞電子商務(wù)集團(tuán)Lazada所持股份——不斷發(fā)展壯大。

But internationalisation is a tough ask for Alibaba, say analysts, as it is for peers Baidu and Tencent. China’s tech trinity, collectively known as BAT, have grown rapidly at home, unshackled by international competition, but have taken little more than baby steps abroad. The reverse, analysts add, is also true: Amazon has failed to make much headway in China.

不過(guò)，分析師們表示，對(duì)阿里巴巴來(lái)說(shuō)，國(guó)際化是一個(gè)艱巨任務(wù)——這對(duì)其國(guó)內(nèi)同行百度(Baidu)和騰訊(Tencent)也是如此。這三家中國(guó)科技公司合稱(chēng)BAT，它們?cè)趪?guó)內(nèi)因未受?chē)?guó)際競(jìng)爭(zhēng)約束而迅速增長(zhǎng)，但在境外只能小步走。分析師們還表示，這一點(diǎn)反過(guò)來(lái)也成立：亞馬遜(Amazon)在中國(guó)就未能打開(kāi)局面。

“There’s a tremendous challenge to take it global,” says Scott Likens, who heads PwC’s analytics and emerging technologies business in Hong Kong. “The model that works in China does not work outside China, or at least not as well.”

普華永道(PwC)香港分析及新興科技業(yè)務(wù)的負(fù)責(zé)人李敬思(Scott Likens)表示：“阿里巴巴走向全球面臨巨大挑戰(zhàn)。在中國(guó)管用的模式在國(guó)外未必有效，或至少不是同樣有效。”

Jack Ma, the one-time English teacher who founded Alibaba, has set a target of 2bn consumers in the next decade. In other words, come 2026, he expects roughly one in four people in the world to shop through Alibaba’s ecommerce platforms including Taobao and Tmall.

曾經(jīng)當(dāng)過(guò)英語(yǔ)老師的阿里巴巴創(chuàng)始人馬云(Jack Ma)為未來(lái)10年設(shè)定了一個(gè)20億消費(fèi)者的目標(biāo)。換句話說(shuō)，到2026年，他預(yù)計(jì)全球?qū)⒂写蠹s四分之一的人通過(guò)阿里巴巴的電商平臺(tái)購(gòu)物，包括淘寶和天貓。

These global ambitions are typically immodest. Mr Ma describes his plans for a “World e-Trade Platform” as a sort of World Trade Organisation without disputes, helping “the 80 per cent of companies and developing countries that cannot participate in world trade” to sell overseas.

這些全球雄心通常過(guò)于自信。馬云稱(chēng)他的“世界電子貿(mào)易平臺(tái)”計(jì)劃好比一種沒(méi)有糾紛的世界貿(mào)易組織(WTO)，幫助“80%沒(méi)有機(jī)會(huì)參與世界貿(mào)易的公司和發(fā)展中國(guó)家”在海外銷(xiāo)售商品。

His claims to be overturning the concept of ecommerce are equally bold. Alibaba is becoming a “consumer-to-business” company, rewriting the retail rule book, it says, so that shoppers, through big data, tell retailers what they want to buy. 他提出的顛覆電商概念的言論同樣大膽。阿里巴巴稱(chēng)，該公司正變成一個(gè)“消費(fèi)者對(duì)企業(yè)”的公司，重寫(xiě)零售業(yè)規(guī)則，讓購(gòu)物者通過(guò)大數(shù)據(jù)告訴零售商他們希望購(gòu)買(mǎi)什么。

“We will become the future of new retail,” says Daniel Zhang, Alibaba chief executive. “Product design and manufacturing will move in the direction of truly being driven by big data.”

“我們將變成新型零售業(yè)的未來(lái)，”阿里巴巴首席執(zhí)行官?gòu)堄?Daniel Zhang)表示，“產(chǎn)品設(shè)計(jì)和制造將沿著真正由大數(shù)據(jù)推動(dòng)的方向發(fā)展。”

In essence, this means Alibaba using past shopping and browsing habits to anticipate what consumers are interested in and to curate pages accordingly.

本質(zhì)上，這意味著阿里巴巴正利用過(guò)去的購(gòu)買(mǎi)和瀏覽習(xí)慣，據(jù)此預(yù)測(cè)消費(fèi)者感興趣的商品和管理網(wǎng)頁(yè)。

Alibaba’s interests give it a much bigger trove of data on customers than that collected by international rivals such as Amazon. A Chinese consumer can (and does) spend a sizeable chunk of time in Alibaba’s web. Its 450m monthly mobile users spend an average 20 minutes per day on a personalised Taobao app, streaming service Youku Tudou has 580m subscribers, and Alibaba part-owns the payments platform Ant Financial.

阿里巴巴廣泛涉足各類(lèi)業(yè)務(wù)，令其獲得了遠(yuǎn)超亞馬遜等國(guó)際競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手的顧客數(shù)據(jù)。中國(guó)消費(fèi)者可能(也確實(shí))在阿里巴巴網(wǎng)站上花費(fèi)大量時(shí)間。其4.5億月度移動(dòng)用戶平均每天在淘寶個(gè)性化應(yīng)用上逗留20分鐘，流媒體服務(wù)優(yōu)酷土豆(Youku Tudou)的用戶達(dá)5.8億，阿里巴巴還持有支付平臺(tái)螞蟻金服(Ant Financial)部分股權(quán)。

“As a digital company they collect your behaviour,” says Steven Lu of Bain & Co’s technology practice in Shanghai. “And they’ve started to monetise that through the core business.”

“作為一家數(shù)字公司，他們會(huì)收集用戶行為，”貝恩公司(Bain & Co)駐上海技術(shù)業(yè)務(wù)主管Steven Lu表示，“他們已開(kāi)始通過(guò)核心業(yè)務(wù)將其貨幣化。”

Providing more data to merchants means Alibaba can charge higher commissions, which on Tmall typically range from 0.4 to 5 per cent.

為商戶提供更多數(shù)據(jù)意味著，阿里巴巴可以收取較高傭金，天貓的傭金費(fèi)率一般介于0.4%至5%之間。

Typical ecommerce models are predicated on there being a physical product on a shelf with a price sticker attached, says PwC’s Mr Likens: customers select from the products on offer and pay the set price.

普華永道的李敬思表示，一般的電商模式基于貨架上有一個(gè)貼有標(biāo)簽的實(shí)物商品：顧客從商家提供的商品中進(jìn)行選擇，然后支付確定價(jià)格。

“But in the new world of BAT that doesn’t need to be the case,” he says. “The infrastructure is there, the data are there, the analytics are there. It’s just a matter of pulling them together. So pricing could be dynamic, as we have seen in other industries such as airlines and hotels.”

“然而，在BAT鼎立的新世界里，情況不需要如此，”他表示，“有基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施，有數(shù)據(jù)，有分析工具。只是一個(gè)把這些集合在一起的問(wèn)題。因此定價(jià)可以是動(dòng)態(tài)的，就像我們?cè)诤娇展竞途频甑绕渌袠I(yè)看到的那樣。”

Data also help with logistics and inventory planning, adds Mr Lu. For example, shoppers can put their selected items in virtual carts ahead of Singles Day to assure delivery.

Steven Lu補(bǔ)充稱(chēng)，數(shù)據(jù)還為物流和庫(kù)存規(guī)劃提供了幫助。例如，購(gòu)物者可以在光棍節(jié)之前將自己選定的商品加入虛擬購(gòu)物車(chē)，以確保商品能夠送達(dá)。

By analysing how many times shoppers refresh their carts and refill them, Alibaba can measure the likelihood of purchase. That data can helping merchants estimate how much inventory they need and where.

通過(guò)分析購(gòu)物者刷新和裝滿購(gòu)物車(chē)的次數(shù)，阿里巴巴能夠衡量他們的購(gòu)買(mǎi)幾率。這些數(shù)據(jù)可以幫助商戶估計(jì)他們需要多少庫(kù)存，這些庫(kù)存應(yīng)該部署在哪里。

That in turn can help make logistics more efficient and, for merchants, reduce the time that capital is tied up, Mr Lu says.

Steven Lu表示，這進(jìn)而可以幫助提高物流效率，而且對(duì)于商戶還可以縮短資金占用時(shí)間。

While shoppers race to snap up bargains, merchants and industry players will be parsing the numbers to see if Alibaba can pull off a seventh year of turbocharged growth.

在消費(fèi)者紛紛搶購(gòu)低價(jià)商品之際，商戶和行業(yè)參與者將梳理數(shù)據(jù)，看阿里巴巴能否連續(xù)第七年實(shí)現(xiàn)迅猛增長(zhǎng)。

“They’ve crushed every record every year, so how long can they sustain that?” asks Mr Likens. However, “the story has been good so far so I would not bet against them”.

“他們每年都打破紀(jì)錄，這種情況能持續(xù)多久?”李敬思問(wèn)道。然而，“迄今的情況非常好，所以我不會(huì)看空他們”。