三季度美國經(jīng)濟增長強勁
今年第三季度，美國的增長超出了最初預(yù)期，而一項關(guān)鍵房價指標超過了衰退前的峰值。這一最新跡象表明，唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)將要繼承一個前景光明的經(jīng)濟。
The world’s biggest developed market grew at an annualised rate of 3.2 per cent in the third quarter, according to a second reading of gross domestic product from the commerce department. That compares with Wall Street estimates of 3 per cent and an initial reading of 2.9 per cent.
根據(jù)美國商務(wù)部第二次給出的美國國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值(GDP)數(shù)據(jù)，這個全球最大發(fā)達國家第三季度的年化增長率為3.2%。這一數(shù)字超過了華爾街3%的估計，也超過了2.9%的初值。
The data released yesterday confirm that the economy expanded in the third quarter at the fastest rate in two years, representing a sharp pick-up from the 0.8 per cent and 1.4 per cent pace logged in the first and second quarters.
這一在昨天發(fā)布的數(shù)據(jù)，確認了美國經(jīng)濟在第三季度出現(xiàn)了兩年內(nèi)最快增長速度，相對一季度的0.8%和二季度的1.4%出現(xiàn)大幅上揚。
Consumption growth, a key element of US economic output, was revised higher to a 2.8 per cent pace, from the previous reading of 2.1 per cent. As opposed to the initial GDP reading, which was “boosted by unseasonably large soyabean exports and inventory rebuilding”, the “composition of growth is now much stronger”, according to Andrew Hollenhorst, a Citigroup strategist. “In particular, strength in consumption bodes well for growth in coming quarters.”
作為美國經(jīng)濟產(chǎn)出關(guān)鍵元素的消費增長速度，也從此前的2.1%調(diào)高至2.8%?；ㄆ旒瘓F(Citigroup)策略師安德魯•霍倫霍斯特(Andrew Hollenhorst)表示，與“受到反季節(jié)性大規(guī)模大豆出口和重建庫存推高”的GDP初值不同，“現(xiàn)在增長的構(gòu)成要強勁得多”，“特別是，消費強勁對未來幾個季度的增長是個好兆頭”。
Separately, a closely-watched measure of US home prices in September shot past a peak set at the height of the housing boom in 2006, as home prices across the nation continued to post steady gains that could signal the post-recession housing market has turned a critical corner. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller national price index reported a 5.5 per cent annual gain in September, surpassing a high notched in July 2006 amid the housing boom.
另外，一項受到密切關(guān)注的美國房價衡量指標，在9月份超過了2006年樓市繁榮時期創(chuàng)下的峰值。與此同時，美國全國房價繼續(xù)錄得穩(wěn)步增長，這或許預(yù)示著后衰退時代的樓市已出現(xiàn)關(guān)鍵轉(zhuǎn)機。9月份標準普爾CoreLogic Case-Shiller全國房價指數(shù)錄得5.5%的同比增長率，超過了2006年7月樓市繁榮期間錄得的最高值。
The signs of strength in the US economy as Mr Trump prepares to assume the presidency are in stark contrast to those inherited by his predecessor, Barack Obama, who took office at the depths of the financial crisis. Mr Trump has vowed to further ramp up US economic growth to about 3.5 per cent a year on average through “the most pro-growth, pro-jobs, pro-family plan put forth perhaps in the history of our country”. The billionaire property developer plans to boost the economy through a mixture of government spending, lower taxes and looser regulations.
在特朗普準備就任美國總統(tǒng)之際，美國經(jīng)濟勢頭強勁的種種跡象，與其前任巴拉克•奧巴馬(Barack Obama)上任時形成了鮮明對比。后者上任時美國正處于金融危機的水深火熱之中。特朗普已承諾要通過“也許是美國歷史上實施的最支持增長、支持就業(yè)、支持家庭的計劃”，將美國經(jīng)濟增速進一步提升至平均每年約3.5%的水平。這位身家億萬的房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)商計劃通過擴大政府開支、減稅和放松監(jiān)管等多種手段的配合，提振美國經(jīng)濟。
“The US economy was on track to continue to grow and had generated some momentum for faster growth before the November election. If enacted, Donald Trump’s fiscal proposals will shift the economy to a higher gear,” noted Ward McCarthy, chief financial economist at Jefferies.
“在11月大選前，美國經(jīng)濟就處于繼續(xù)增長的軌道上，并已出現(xiàn)了一些增長加快的勢頭。唐納德•特朗普的財政提案如果實行，將把美國經(jīng)濟增速調(diào)至更高檔位，”杰富瑞(Jefferies)首席金融經(jīng)濟學(xué)家沃德•麥卡錫(Ward McCarthy)指出。
While Wall Street economists have marked up their estimates for growth since the November 8 election, they still remain well below Mr Trump’s targets, at 2.2 per cent for both 2017 and 2018, a Bloomberg survey shows. Economists have also warned that Mr Trump’s protectionist trade and immigration stances could dim those positive effects.
彭博(Bloomberg)的一份調(diào)查顯示，雖然在11月8日的選舉以來，華爾街的經(jīng)濟學(xué)家已經(jīng)調(diào)高他們對增長的估測，預(yù)計美國2017年和2018年均增長2.2%，但這些數(shù)值仍遠低于特朗普的目標。經(jīng)濟學(xué)家還警告稱，特朗普的保護主義貿(mào)易和移民立場可能削弱那些積極作用。
