看好美國經(jīng)濟，美聯(lián)儲上調(diào)利率

WASHINGTON — Citing the steady growth of the U.S. economy, the Federal Reserve said Wednesday that it would increase its benchmark interest rate for just the second time since the 2008 financial crisis.

華盛頓——美聯(lián)儲周三表示，由于美國經(jīng)濟的穩(wěn)定增長，它將提高基準(zhǔn)利率，這是自2008年金融危機以來它第二次調(diào)高利率。

The widely expected decision moves the Fed’s benchmark rate to a range between 0.5 and 0.75 percent, still a very low level by historical standards.

這個未出許多人預(yù)料的決定將美聯(lián)儲的基準(zhǔn)利率調(diào)整到了0.5%至0.75%的區(qū)間，不過以歷史標(biāo)準(zhǔn)衡量，依然處在非常低的水平。

In announcing the decision, which followed a two-day meeting of the Fed’s policymaking committee, the central bank gave little indication that the election of Donald Trump has altered its economic outlook. The Fed said it still expected a slow economic expansion, and it still expected to continue a slow march toward higher rates. Fed officials said they expected to raise rates three times in 2017.

這個決定是在美聯(lián)儲決策委員會舉行為期兩天的會議之后宣布的，其中幾乎看不到唐納德·特朗普當(dāng)選對央行的經(jīng)濟預(yù)期產(chǎn)生影響的跡象。美聯(lián)儲表示，它預(yù)計經(jīng)濟還會緩慢增長，利率會繼續(xù)緩慢提升。美聯(lián)儲官員表示，他們預(yù)計會在2017年加息三次。

“My colleagues and I are recognizing the considerable progress the economy has made,” Janet L. Yellen, the Fed chairwoman, said at a news conference after the announcement. “We expect the economy will continue to perform well.”

“我和同事意識到經(jīng)濟已經(jīng)取得相當(dāng)大的進步，”美聯(lián)儲主席珍妮特·L·耶倫(Janet L. Yellen)在宣布調(diào)息消息之后舉行的一場新聞發(fā)布會上講。“我們預(yù)計經(jīng)濟會繼續(xù)表現(xiàn)良好。”

The decision was taken by a unanimous vote of the 10 members of the Federal Open Market Committee, the first time in recent months the Fed has acted by consensus. The Fed is holding rates at low levels to support economic growth by encouraging borrowing and risk-taking. The committee’s statement said it judged that the economy still needed help.

這項決策是由聯(lián)邦公開市場委員會(Federal Open Market Committee)10名成員一致投票通過的，這是最近幾個月美聯(lián)儲首次達成一致的行動。美聯(lián)儲將利率維持在低水平，以便通過鼓勵借貸和承擔(dān)風(fēng)險來支持經(jīng)濟增長。該委員會發(fā)聲明稱，據(jù)它判斷，經(jīng)濟依然需要外力推動。

The Fed’s economic outlook was essentially unchanged from the last round of forecasts in September. Fed officials continued to predict the economy would expand at an annual rate of about 2 percent for the next few years. They expect little further decline in the unemployment rate, which stood at 4.6 percent in November. Inflation, meanwhile, is expected to reach 2 percent — the pace the Fed regards as healthy — and then stay there.

與今年9月份做出的上一輪預(yù)測相比，美聯(lián)儲的經(jīng)濟預(yù)期基本沒有改變。美聯(lián)儲官員依然預(yù)測經(jīng)濟在接下來的兩年里會以每年大約2%的速度增長。他們預(yù)計失業(yè)率會進一步小幅下跌，這個數(shù)字在11月份是4.6%。與此同時，通貨膨脹預(yù)計達到2%，然后保持穩(wěn)定。美聯(lián)儲認為這個速度是健康的。

If Republicans succeed in invigorating economic growth, however, the Fed is likely to raise rates more quickly. The greater the stimulus, the faster interest rates are likely to rise.

然而，如果共和黨人在刺激經(jīng)濟增長方面取得成功，美聯(lián)儲有可能更快調(diào)高利率。刺激力度越大，調(diào)高利率的時間可能就越早。

“Your expectation should depend very little on what you think that the FOMC is thinking and very much on your view of Trump policies and their macro effects,” said Jon Faust, an economist at Johns Hopkins University and a former adviser to Yellen. “Don’t focus on the Fed. As James Carville regularly reminded the other Clinton on the campaign trail: It’s the economy, stupid.”

“你們不要把預(yù)期建立在你們覺得聯(lián)邦公開市場委員會在想什么的基礎(chǔ)上，而應(yīng)該主要依據(jù)你們對特朗普的政策及其宏觀效應(yīng)的看法，”耶倫的前顧問、約翰-霍普金斯大學(xué)(Johns Hopkins University)經(jīng)濟學(xué)家喬恩·福斯特(Jon Faust)說。“不要太關(guān)注美聯(lián)儲。就像詹姆斯·卡維爾(James Carville)在競選活動中經(jīng)常提醒另一位克林頓的：這是經(jīng)濟，傻瓜。”