特朗普與勒龐聯(lián)手發(fā)動(dòng)“大西洋反革命”？

France and the US both regard themselves as exceptional nations. But their history has often followed a similar pattern. The American revolution of 1775-83 was swiftly followed by the French revolution of 1789 — leading some historians to talk of the late 18th century as the period of the “Atlantic revolutions”.

法國(guó)和美國(guó)都自視為例外國(guó)家。但他們的歷史經(jīng)常出現(xiàn)相似的一幕。繼1775-83年美國(guó)革命后，法國(guó)很快就爆發(fā)了1789年大革命，以致一些歷史學(xué)家將18世紀(jì)晚期稱為“大西洋革命”時(shí)期。

Will future historians one day be writing about the “Atlantic counter-revolutions” of the early 21st century? It could happen if the election of Donald Trump as president of the US last November is followed by the election of Marine Le Pen, leader of the far-right National Front, as president of France this May.

未來(lái)的歷史學(xué)家某一天會(huì)撰寫關(guān)于21世紀(jì)初“大西洋反革命”的歷史嗎?這有可能，如果繼唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)去年11月當(dāng)選美國(guó)總統(tǒng)之后，法國(guó)極右翼國(guó)民陣線(National Front)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人馬琳•勒龐(Marine Le Pen)今年5月贏得法國(guó)總統(tǒng)大選的話。

The Trump and Le Pen movements share many ideas — hostility to Islam, nationalism, populism, protectionism, support for Brexit, sympathy for Russia and hatred of the mainstream media. Both leaders want to turn the clock back to a more conservative era, before globalisation and multiculturalism, by staging a counter-revolution against the hated “liberal establishment”.

特朗普與勒龐的政治運(yùn)動(dòng)擁有許多共同理念——敵視伊斯蘭教;信奉民族主義、民粹主義、保護(hù)主義;支持英國(guó)退歐;同情俄羅斯;憎惡主流媒體。兩位領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人都希望通過(guò)對(duì)令人厭惡的“自由建制派”發(fā)動(dòng)一場(chǎng)反革命，將本國(guó)帶回全球化和多元文化主義之前的那個(gè)更為保守的時(shí)代。

Ms Le Pen hailed Mr Trump’s victory as the dawn of a new age. And some of Mr Trump’s close advisers, such as Stephen Bannon, have cultivated close links with the European far right.

勒龐盛贊特朗普勝選為一個(gè)新時(shí)代的開始。特朗普身邊一些關(guān)系密切的顧問(wèn)——如斯蒂芬•班農(nóng)(Stephen Bannon)——已與歐洲極右勢(shì)力建立了緊密聯(lián)系。

For political reasons, Ms Le Pen has to handle the Trump connection with care. Opinion polls show that the new US president is unpopular with French voters, even those on the far right. But, on balance, the Trump victory is a plus for Ms Le Pen. It has helped to create a sense of momentum behind nationalist, anti-globalist forces in Europe. And in the aftermath of Mr Trump’s victory and Brexit, French voters are less likely to fear that a Le Pen victory will stigmatise or isolate France.

出于政治原因，勒龐不得不謹(jǐn)慎處理與特朗普的關(guān)系。民調(diào)顯示，這位美國(guó)新總統(tǒng)并不受法國(guó)選民歡迎，即便是那些極右翼選民。但總的來(lái)說(shuō)，特朗普勝選對(duì)勒龐而言是件好事，有助于在歐洲的民族主義、反全球化勢(shì)力背后產(chǎn)生一種動(dòng)力感。英國(guó)公投決定退歐、特朗普勝選之后，法國(guó)選民沒(méi)那么擔(dān)憂勒龐勝選會(huì)讓法國(guó)蒙羞或被孤立了。

The economic and social circumstances in France are, if anything, more favourable for Ms Le Pen than the situation that faced Mr Trump before the election in November. The recent death toll from jihadist terrorism in France is much heavier than in the US, following three horrific attacks in 18 months, two in Paris and one in Nice.

如果有什么不同的話，相較于特朗普在去年11月大選前面對(duì)的形勢(shì)，法國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)和社會(huì)環(huán)境對(duì)勒龐更為有利。圣戰(zhàn)恐怖主義近期在法國(guó)造成的死亡人數(shù)比美國(guó)要嚴(yán)重得多——過(guò)去18個(gè)月法國(guó)遭受了3次可怕的襲擊，兩次發(fā)生在巴黎，一次發(fā)生在尼斯。

Tensions between the Muslim minority and the wider society are much more intense in France than in the US. Unemployment is also higher in France than in America and economic growth is slower. France, unlike the US, is chafing under budgetary constraints imposed by the EU — giving extra force to anxiety about loss of sovereignty.

法國(guó)穆斯林少數(shù)族群與整個(gè)社會(huì)之間的關(guān)系比美國(guó)要緊張得多。法國(guó)的失業(yè)率也比美國(guó)高，經(jīng)濟(jì)增速比美國(guó)慢。與美國(guó)不同，法國(guó)還要受制于歐盟的預(yù)算限制，使民眾更有理由擔(dān)憂主權(quán)喪失。

Even better for Ms Le Pen, the French political elite seems to be going out of its way to support her charge that they are corrupt and out-of-touch. François Fillon, the candidate of the centre-right, is now the subject of a formal investigation after employing his wife and two of his children with public funds. The great hope of the pro-European centre is Emmanuel Macron, a youthful and charismatic independent candidate. But, as a former banker educated at the Ecole Nationale d’Administration, France’s most elite institution, and passionately supported in Brussels, Mr Macron also epitomises an unpopular establishment. Ms Le Pen is a skilled television performer who will relish the televised debates that tend to be defining moments in the French presidential elections.

對(duì)勒龐更有利的是，法國(guó)的政治精英似乎正在特意支持她對(duì)他們腐敗和脫離群眾的指控。法國(guó)中右翼陣營(yíng)候選人弗朗索瓦•菲永(François Fillon)，如今正因妻子和兩名子女“吃空餉”的丑聞接受正式調(diào)查。年輕、有魅力的獨(dú)立候選人埃曼紐爾•馬克龍(Emmanuel Macron)是親歐洲的中間陣營(yíng)的最大希望。但作為一名畢業(yè)于法國(guó)頂級(jí)精英學(xué)校國(guó)家行政學(xué)院(Ecole Nationale d'Administration)的前銀行家，而且得到布魯塞爾的熱情支持，馬克龍同樣是不受歡迎的建制派的代表。勒龐是一名嫻熟的電視表演者，她將很享受電視辯論，而電視辯論往往會(huì)成為法國(guó)總統(tǒng)選舉的決定性時(shí)刻。

The one clear difference between the Trump and Le Pen movements, that could count against the French far right, is novelty. Mr Trump emerged from nowhere (politically speaking) to take over the Republican party and then the US presidency. By contrast, the National Front has been around in French politics for decades, as has the Le Pen dynasty.

特朗普與勒龐政治運(yùn)動(dòng)之間的一個(gè)明顯不同在于新奇性，這一點(diǎn)可能不利于法國(guó)極右翼。特朗普是從白手起家(從政治來(lái)說(shuō))到接管共和黨，繼而成為美國(guó)總統(tǒng)。相比之下，國(guó)民陣線已在法國(guó)政壇縱橫幾十年，“勒龐王朝”也是如此。

Historically, there has been a clear ceiling to support for the far right in France — well below the 50 per cent of votes needed to grasp the presidency. Jean-Marie Le Pen, Marine’s father, made it to the second round of the French presidential election in 2002, but lost heavily with just under 18 per cent support against Jacques Chirac, the incumbent. The FN did relatively well in the 2015 regional elections, but hit a ceiling of 27 per cent support in the second round of voting.

從歷史上看，極右翼在法國(guó)的支持率一直都有一個(gè)清晰的上限——遠(yuǎn)低于贏得總統(tǒng)寶座所需的50%選票。2002年，馬琳的父親讓-瑪麗•勒龐(Jean-Marie Le Pen)曾成功進(jìn)入第二輪法國(guó)總統(tǒng)選舉，但在與時(shí)任總統(tǒng)雅克•希拉克(Jacques Chirac)的對(duì)決中慘敗，得票率不足18%。在2015年的地區(qū)選舉中，國(guó)民陣線表現(xiàn)相對(duì)較好，但在第二輪投票中止步于27%的支持上限。

Under ordinary circumstances, the structure of the presidential election would ensure that this traditional limit to FN support would be decisive. In round one, there are many candidates. The split in votes is likely to mean that Ms Le Pen comes out on top, with a score of over 25 per cent. But, in round two, when she would face a single candidate, the natural majority against the far right should come into play.

一般情況下，法國(guó)總統(tǒng)選舉的規(guī)程可以確保，國(guó)民陣線支持率的這一傳統(tǒng)上限將起決定性作用。第一輪角逐中有很多候選人。投票的分散很可能意味著勒龐將以頭名勝出，得票率超過(guò)25%。但到了第二輪，當(dāng)她面對(duì)一位對(duì)手時(shí)，反對(duì)極右翼的自然多數(shù)就會(huì)開始起作用。

Until recently, this idea of a natural ceiling to the far right’s support brought considerable comfort to the French political mainstream. But a series of recent opinion polls have shown Ms Le Pen above 40 per cent support in the second round of voting. One poll last week showed her at 45 per cent against Mr Fillon; while two recent polls have showed her at 42 per cent against Mr Macron. That is touching distance, with more than two months of campaigning to go. And Ms Le Pen might be even better placed if she faces a far-left candidate in the second round, as might happen if the left unites its forces.

直到不久前，這種關(guān)于極右翼支持率有天然上限的觀點(diǎn)一直給法國(guó)政治主流帶來(lái)莫大的安慰。但最近一系列民調(diào)顯示，勒龐可能在第二輪投票中拿下超過(guò)40%的得票率。上周公布的一項(xiàng)民調(diào)顯示，她與菲永對(duì)決的得票率為45%;而最近的兩項(xiàng)民調(diào)顯示，她與馬克龍對(duì)決的得票率為42%。這樣的支持率差距實(shí)在太小，何況還有兩個(gè)多月的競(jìng)選時(shí)間。如果第二輪角逐中面對(duì)一名極左候選人(如果左翼聯(lián)合起來(lái)可能出現(xiàn)這種局面)，勒龐甚至可能獲得更大的優(yōu)勢(shì)。

Certainly, there is now a palpable nervousness among the French elite. In Paris last week, I found myself having the “which country should I emigrate to?” conversation with a couple of old friends for whom the prospect of a Le Pen victory suddenly seemed very real. With Mr Trump in power in the US and Britain leaving the EU, the emigration options seem to be narrowing.

毫無(wú)疑問(wèn)，如今法國(guó)精英明顯倍感緊張。上周，我在巴黎與兩位老朋友談到了“應(yīng)該移民到哪個(gè)國(guó)家?”的話題，他們都感覺(jué)勒龐勝選的前景突然似乎變得無(wú)比真實(shí)。在特朗普掌權(quán)美國(guó)、英國(guó)正在脫離歐盟的背景下，移民的選擇似乎越來(lái)越少。