中國遏制資本外流之舉波及萬達

Has China’s crackdown on capital flight claimed its biggest name to date?

中國對資本外逃的打擊是否已命中迄今最重頭的目標?

The fate of a $1bn deal struck in November by Dalian Wanda, the Chinese real estate and entertainment giant, is in doubt. Sources with knowledge of Wanda’s buyout of the US’s Dick Clark Productions, the company behind the Golden Globe Awards, said last week that it was struggling to get approval to move money offshore, putting the transaction at risk.

中國房地產(chǎn)及娛樂業(yè)巨頭大連萬達(Dalian Wanda)去年11月達成一宗10億美元的交易，如今該交易的命運卻打上了問號。對于這宗萬達收購美國迪克•克拉克制片公司(Dick Clark Productions)的交易，了解情況的消息人士在上周表示，由于萬達難以獲得將資金轉(zhuǎn)往境外的相關批準，這宗交易面臨著風險。迪克•克拉克制片公司是金球獎(Golden Globe Award)頒獎典禮的制作公司。

Wanda’s deal could survive if approvals come in time, people close to the matter said. But the delay highlights a shift in Beijing’s economic priorities.

知情人士表示，只要及時獲得批準，萬達的交易就有可能進行下去。不過，這一拖延凸顯出中國政府經(jīng)濟政策重心的轉(zhuǎn)移。

For more than a decade, the government has pushed its companies to go abroad and buy up foreign assets — specifically technologies and brand names that could be brought home and deployed in the local market. Deals — from iconic football teams in Europe to some of the largest chemical manufacturers in the world — have also signalled the global rise of China and the prowess of its corporate sector.

在逾10年的時間里，中國政府一直鼓勵企業(yè)赴海外收購外國資產(chǎn)——尤其是可以帶回國內(nèi)、運用于國內(nèi)市場的技術和品牌。這些交易涵蓋了從歐洲大牌足球隊到一些全球最大化工制造商在內(nèi)的各種企業(yè)，它們也標志著中國在全球的崛起以及中國企業(yè)的強大。

But China’s massive dollar reserves, long a critical tool for propping up the value of the renminbi as companies sought dollars, have fallen below $3tn for the first time in six years. And the country’s forex regulator has indicated that halting capital outflows will trump company growth overseas. “China has become much more sensitive as foreign reserves pass below $3tn . . . Even state-owned enterprises are having trouble getting money offshore,” said Hong Hao, head of research and strategy at Bank of Communications International Securities. “The reach of Chinese companies is getting limited.”

然而，中國外匯儲備6年來首次跌至3萬億美元以下——長期以來，在中企尋求美元的時候，中國海量外匯儲備一直是支撐人民幣匯率的關鍵工具。中國的外匯監(jiān)管機構已暗示，遏制資本外流的重要性將大過企業(yè)海外增長。交銀國際證券(Bank of Communications International Securities)研究與策略部門主管洪灝表示：“隨著外儲跌破3萬億美元，中國變得敏感多了……即使是國有企業(yè)也很難把資金轉(zhuǎn)往境外。中企的投資觸手正在受到限制。”

Wanda, controlled by Wang Jianlin, one of China’s richest men, has deep connections to the country’s top leadership but bankers familiar with the company said it was not surprising to find the group running into problems. “Even [state-owned enterprises] are getting stuck,” said one banker who deals with cross-border acquisitions at a Chinese bank. “Wanda’s problems are normal now.”

萬達由中國巨富王健林(見文首圖)控股，與中國最高領導層有著深層次聯(lián)系。不過，熟悉該公司的銀行業(yè)人士表示，萬達遇到問題并不讓人吃驚。一位在中資銀行處理跨境并購的銀行業(yè)人士表示：“(連國企)都堵上了。萬達遇到的問題現(xiàn)在很常見。”

About $220bn in outbound acquisitions were announced by Chinese companies in 2016, more than double the figure of the year before. When the crackdown was announced late last year, bankers initially believed that smaller companies might face difficulties getting approval for moving cash offshore but deals strategic in nature — rather than speculative capital flight — would make it out of the gate. But the impact has been much bigger than anticipated.

2016年中企公布的境外并購規(guī)模約為2200億美元，超過此前一年的兩倍。打擊資本外流的舉措去年底公布時，銀行業(yè)人士起初認為，規(guī)模較小的公司也許會難以獲得將現(xiàn)金轉(zhuǎn)往境外的相關批準，而戰(zhàn)略性質(zhì)的交易(而不是投機性的資本外逃)或許會過關。然而，這輪打擊的影響大大超出了之前的預期。

The majority of live transactions have been delayed or even stopped in their tracks, bankers and lawyers say. At the same time, pending buyouts that have already received approval are being “re-evaluated” .

多名銀行業(yè)人士和律師表示，絕大多數(shù)等待批準的交易都已被延遲甚至胎死腹中。與此同時，已經(jīng)獲批但尚未完成的并購交易正被“重新評估”。

“Not only is this halting live deals, it’s forcing companies to go back and review acquisitions that have already been approved,” Owen Chan, managing partner at Hogan Lovells in Hong Kong said. “That means there’s a risk to approved deals.”

霍金路偉律師事務所(Hogan Lovells)駐香港的管理合伙人陳愛民(Owen Chan)表示：“這不僅中斷了正在等待批準的交易，還迫使企業(yè)回去審查已經(jīng)獲批的并購。也就是說，已經(jīng)批準的交易也有風險。”

Few if any deals have been outrightly rejected by the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, China’s gatekeeper for capital outflows from the country.

不過，被中國國家外匯管理局直接駁回的交易就算有也少之又少。外管局是中國阻止資本外流的守門人。

Instead, the strategy taken up by Safe has been to delay deals by requiring re-evaluation by other regulators such as the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) or the Ministry of Commerce (Mofcom), bankers familiar with the process said. Even after other regulators have re-evaluated the deal, Safe can make new requests for information, according to a senior M&A adviser at a global bank. Safe did not respond to a request for comment on the matter.

熟悉整個流程的銀行業(yè)人士表示，事實上，外管局采取的策略，是通過要求中國國家發(fā)展和改革委員會以及中國商務部等其他監(jiān)管機構開展重新評估，來拖延交易。一家全球性銀行的一名資深并購顧問稱，即使其他監(jiān)管機構已經(jīng)重新評估過該交易，外管局也還可提出對上報信息的新要求。對于有關此事的置評請求，外管局未予回應。

The volume of buyouts in January and February this year was still higher than in 2015 — Chinese companies have announced 14 cross-border transactions worth more than $100m a piece since the start of the year — showing that Chinese companies continued to pursue acquisitions overseas despite the risks.

今年1月和2月，收購交易規(guī)模仍然高于2015年——自年初以來，中企已公布14宗規(guī)模在1億美元以上的跨境交易。這顯示，盡管存在上述風險，中企仍在繼續(xù)尋求海外并購。

Regulators such as Safe, NDRC and Mofcom have met recently to discuss how to co-ordinate the cross-border investment policy, said Raymond Yeung, chief greater China economist at ANZ — an acknowledgment that Beijing has sent mixed guidelines for overseas corporate expansion.

澳新銀行(ANZ)大中華區(qū)首席經(jīng)濟學家楊宇霆(Raymond Yeung)表示，外管局、國家發(fā)改委和商務部等監(jiān)管機構最近已開會討論如何協(xié)調(diào)跨境投資政策——此舉等于是承認了中國政府在企業(yè)海外擴張方面?zhèn)鬟_了混亂的指示。

“The official stance is that they still support the ‘going out’ policy,” Mr Yeung said. “But I think regulators have seen how much money has been moved overseas and this has become their main focus for now.”

楊宇霆表示：“官方立場是他們?nèi)灾С?lsquo;走出去’的政策。不過我認為，監(jiān)管機構已認識到資金轉(zhuǎn)往海外的規(guī)模之大，現(xiàn)階段這已成為他們的主要關注點。”