朝鮮經(jīng)濟未被國際制裁壓垮

North Korea is bowed but not broken by international sanctions, according to clues gleaned by a small group of outsiders dedicated to shining a light on the reclusive Asian nation.

根據(jù)一小部分致力于揭示朝鮮狀況的外部人士收集的線索，這個與世隔絕的亞洲國家受到了打擊，但并沒有被國際制裁擊垮。

Although poverty remains rife in the 25m-strong country, the economy has shown signs of increased prosperity as it diversifies away from the state-dominated system that led to famines in the 1990s.

在這個人口超過2500萬的國家，貧困仍普遍存在，但隨著該國擺脫曾在上世紀90年代導致饑荒的由政府主宰的體制，其經(jīng)濟顯示出了更為富裕的跡象。

“In the countryside it’s tough and in Pyongyang it’s normal,” said Nick Bonner of travel company Koryo Tours, who last visited Pyongyang two weeks ago. Despite tightened sanctions, middle-class pleasures such as shopping and outings “are continuing — you wouldn’t notice a change on the surface of things”.

高麗旅行社(Koryo Tours)的尼克•邦納(Nick Bonner)表示：“在農(nóng)村，生活很艱難，但平壤還算正常。”他上次去朝鮮是在兩周前。盡管制裁力度加大，但購物和郊游等中產(chǎn)階級樂趣仍“在繼續(xù)，你從表面上看不到什么變化”。

Frequent visitors say the capital has been growing more comfortable. People own mobile phones, raise pets and are starting to travel round the country. Food kiosks and coffee shops are appearing on the capital’s streets.

經(jīng)常去朝鮮的游客表示，平壤變得更舒適了。人們有了手機，飼養(yǎng)寵物，開始在全國各地旅游。食品店和咖啡廳正在平壤街頭出現(xiàn)。

Floods last summer damaged the country’s harvest and led to fears of food shortages. But Chinese grains export data show that North Korea bought less than it did after similar crises in 2011 or 2013, indicating a smaller impact.

去年夏季的洪水破壞了朝鮮的收成，引發(fā)食品短缺的擔憂。但中國的糧食出口數(shù)據(jù)顯示，朝鮮購買的糧食數(shù)量不及2011年或2013年發(fā)生類似危機后的水平，這表明去年夏季洪水造成的影響較小。

The variety of consumer goods has blossomed in state-run shopping malls, according to Rudiger Frank, head of East Asian studies at the University of Vienna, who noted in a February visit that nearly everything was imported from China. “This is bad news for South Korea, which hoped to play that role after unification,” he wrote in a post this month for 38 North, a website about North Korea run by Johns Hopkins University.

維也納大學(University of Vienna)東亞研究主管呂迪格•弗朗克(Rudiger Frank)表示，各種各樣的消費品在政府運營的商場出現(xiàn)，他在2月訪問朝鮮時曾指出，幾乎一切都是從中國進口的。他本月在為關于朝鮮的網(wǎng)站38 North撰寫的博文中寫道：“對于韓國而言，這是個壞消息，韓國原本希望在韓朝統(tǒng)一后發(fā)揮這種作用。”該網(wǎng)站由約翰霍普金斯大學(Johns Hopkins University)運營。

While the US wants to tighten the screw on the Kim Jong Un regime to force it to give up its nuclear programme, China — North Korea’s main trading partner — has argued that basic trade must be maintained to prevent millions of refugees from fleeing a failed state.

盡管美國希望收緊對金正恩(Kim Jong Un)政權的制裁，以迫使其放棄核計劃，但中國(朝鮮的主要貿易伙伴)認為，基本貿易必須維持，以阻止數(shù)百萬難民逃離一個失敗國家。

However, there are growing calls within China for it to use its sway over a regime that is increasingly seen as a threat. The Global Times, a nationalist tabloid often used to convey messages to other countries, suggested this month that Beijing could cut off oil supplies to its neighbour.

然而，在中國國內，越來越多的人呼吁中國利用其對這個日益被視為威脅的政權的影響力。民族主義小報《環(huán)球時報》經(jīng)常被用來向其他國家傳達消息，本月該報曾提出，北京可能會切斷對朝鮮的石油供應。

Beijing has already announced that, in compliance with UN sanctions, it will stop importing North Korean coal — a primary export item and source of hard currency — for the remainder of the year.

中國已宣布，中國將遵照聯(lián)合國制裁決議，在今年剩下的時間里停止進口朝鮮煤炭，煤炭是朝鮮的主要出口商品和主要外匯來源。

“The North Korean people usually use coal for heating, so an oil cut would affect their economic and industrial base,” especially transportation of goods around the country, said Cai Jian, an expert at Fudan University in Shanghai.

上海復旦大學朝韓專家蔡建表示，“朝鮮人民通常用煤炭取暖，切斷石油供應將影響他們的經(jīng)濟和工業(yè)基礎，”特別是對于在全國各地運輸商品。

Customs data show North Korea has imported about 50,000 tonnes a month of crude oil between 2006 and 2013, when China stopped publishing the data.

海關數(shù)據(jù)顯示，2006年至2013年(此后中國停止公布這些數(shù)據(jù))，朝鮮每月進口約5萬噸原油。

Analysing economic life within the Hermit Kingdom requires a special kind of detective work, involving a small group of cognoscenti who scour customs and shipping data, travellers’ reports, state news and satellite images. Their work appears on websites such as 38 North or North Korean Economy Watch.

分析這個“隱士王國”的經(jīng)濟狀況需要特殊的偵探工作，包括一小批研究海關和航運數(shù)據(jù)、游客報告、官方新聞和衛(wèi)星圖片的專家。他們的研究結果發(fā)布在38 North或朝鮮經(jīng)濟觀察(North Korean Economy Watch)等網(wǎng)站上。

Taken together, the patchwork of information gives a picture of economic activity. For instance, Chinese exports of coking coal and iron ore to North Korea and imports of iron or steel back into China all dropped in 2015. In his 2016 New Year’s speech, Mr Kim called for ensuring supply to the flagship Kim Chaek steelworks, the country’s oldest and largest mill.

經(jīng)過綜合梳理，拼湊起來的信息展示了朝鮮的經(jīng)濟活動。例如，2015年，中國對朝鮮的焦煤和鐵礦石出口以及中國從朝鮮的鋼鐵進口都出現(xiàn)下滑。在2016年的新年致辭中，金正恩要求確保對該國歷史最悠久且規(guī)模最大的旗艦煉鋼廠金策(Kim Chaek)的供應。

A midsummer analysis of infrared satellite imagery posted to 38 North concluded the mill was still partially operating. And sure enough, Chinese customs data show exports of sintered ore — a trade that had begun the year before — had faltered around the time of Mr Kim’s speech but was fully recovered by the summer.

在38 North發(fā)布的去年仲夏期間對紅外衛(wèi)星圖像的分析顯示，該鋼鐵廠仍在部分運轉。果然，中國海關數(shù)據(jù)顯示，在一年前開始的燒結礦出口，到了金正恩發(fā)表新年致辭前后大幅下降，但到去年夏季已全面恢復。