Lex專欄：中國銀行業(yè)風險降低

Who’s hot and who’s not? The Chinese Communist party is set to find out in a leadership reshuffle next month. Chinese regulators are already sorting sheep from goats. The result, according to a report from Fitch, is a financial system that is broadly safer, but where risks are steep among smaller lenders.

誰是熱門人物，誰不是?中國共產黨將在下月的領導層換屆中找到答案。中國監(jiān)管機構已經開始區(qū)分良莠。根據惠譽(Fitch)的一份報告，其結果是金融體系在總體上更安全，但規(guī)模較小的銀行風險較高。

The authorities are making progress in curbing risky short-term funding. Fitch found the outstanding balance of such loans has fallen for the first time in 10 years. The share of issuance with maturities of up to three months has declined to 49 per cent of the total. But smaller banks and finance groups are becoming increasingly reliant on this form of financing.

在限制高風險短期融資方面，當局正取得進展。惠譽發(fā)現，這類貸款的未償付余額10年來首次下降。期限在3個月以內的貸款發(fā)放額在總額中所占比例降至49%。但規(guī)模較小的銀行和金融集團正日益依賴這種融資形式。

Mid-tier lenders get 43 per cent of their funding from short-term sources; big state-owned banks receive only one-fifth. Demand for deposits has been strong because credit growth has outstripped gross domestic product. The ratio of deposits to loans has declined 9 per cent to 61 per cent since the end of 2013.

中等規(guī)模的銀行43%的資金來自短期來源;而大型國有銀行只有五分之一的資金來自這類來源。對存款的需求很強勁，因為信貸增長超過了國內生產總值(GDP)的增長。自2013年底以來，存款與貸款之比下降了9%，至61%。

State-backed money has helped ease the pressure as regulators start cleaning up grubbier corners of the system. Loans to Chinese banks from the People’s Bank of China quintupled to Rmb9tn ($1.4tn) in the three years to July. Non-bank financial institutions and big state banks, such as the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China with its large rural deposit basis, have also injected liquidity.

在監(jiān)管層開始清理體系中比較陰暗的角落之際，政府支持的資金紓解了壓力。在截至7月的3年里，中國人民銀行(PBoC)給國內銀行的貸款增長了4倍，達到9萬億元人民幣(合1.4萬億美元)。非銀行金融機構和大型國有銀行，如中國工商銀行(ICBC)，也注入了流動性。

Analysts at UBS reckon banks in the north-east, with its heavy industrial base, could be most affected by rule changes. Foreign investors are unlikely to lose much sleep: riskier lenders such as Shengjing Bank and Baoshang Bank are hardly household names.

瑞銀(UBS)的分析師們認為，中國東北地區(qū)的銀行，連同其重工業(yè)客戶根基，可能受規(guī)則變化的影響最大。外國的投資者們也許不會太擔心：風險較高的銀行，如盛京銀行(Shengjing Bank)和包商銀行(Baoshang Bank)都不是很有名。

Prophets of a Chinese banking crisis have been wrong, so far. Lenders are supported by strong deposits and an agile central bank. At a pinch, reserve requirements of 17 per cent of deposits could be lowered if liquidity falters. But the clean-up is delivering the same message to smaller lenders some unhappy party cadres will receive next month: you are the weakest link.

目前看來，關于中國銀行業(yè)危機的那些預言是錯誤的。銀行得到雄厚存款和一個機敏的央行的支持。必要時，如果流動性出現問題，17%的存款準備金率可以下調。但清理工作向較小銀行傳遞的信息，也是一些郁悶的黨政干部下月會收到的信息：你是最薄弱的環(huán)節(jié)。