FT社評(píng)：暫時(shí)不用太擔(dān)心比特幣

Bitcoin prices are in a bubble. To recognise this, one need only look at the cryptocurrency’s vertiginous path to its current peak of more than $16,000 — and then recall that it has no intrinsic value. It is not productive like oil, and no government stands behind it. It is not even physically attractive, as paintings, gold and tulips are. As of today, the sole legitimate reason to buy bitcoin it is to sell it later for a higher price.

比特幣(Bitcoin)價(jià)格存在泡沫。要認(rèn)識(shí)到這一點(diǎn)，人們只需要看看這種加密貨幣達(dá)到目前逾16000美元這一峰值的令人眩暈的上漲過(guò)程——然后記得它不具備內(nèi)在價(jià)值。它不像石油一樣有生產(chǎn)用途，也沒(méi)有政府為其背書(shū)。它甚至也不像繪畫(huà)、黃金以及郁金香那樣有外觀上的吸引力。到目前為止，購(gòu)買比特幣唯一合理的理由就是為了之后可以高價(jià)出售。

Should anyone care about this? There is now quite a bit of nominal value behind bitcoin. Multiply the price by the number of bitcoins and the result is more than $270bn — roughly the market capitalisation and double the book value of Wells Fargo, the third-largest bank in the US. There is reason to think still more money is going to flow to bitcoin. Two major exchanges, the CME Group and Cboe Global Markets Global Markets, are about to launch bitcoin futures exchanges. Historically, asset bubbles ascend to their wildest heights after derivative trading is introduced. Such trading is easier and less capital intensive than cash trading and delivery of the underlying asset.

人們應(yīng)該關(guān)心這一點(diǎn)嗎?眼下比特幣具備了不少的名義價(jià)值。用比特幣的價(jià)格乘以數(shù)量，可以得出其總價(jià)值已經(jīng)超過(guò)2700億美元——大體相當(dāng)于美國(guó)第三大銀行富國(guó)銀行(Wells Fargo)的市值，并且是其賬面價(jià)值的兩倍。人們有理由認(rèn)為還會(huì)有更多資金流入比特幣。芝加哥商品交易所集團(tuán)(CME Group)和芝加哥期權(quán)交易所全球市場(chǎng)(Cboe Global Markets)這兩家主要的交易所將推出比特幣期貨產(chǎn)品。在歷史上，資產(chǎn)泡沫攀升至最瘋狂的高度往往是在引入衍生品交易后。相比標(biāo)的資產(chǎn)的現(xiàn)金交易與交割，衍生品交易操作更簡(jiǎn)單且資本密集程度更低。

It is telling that Wall Street banks, usually keen to cash in on the sudden popularity of innovative derivatives — mortgage-backed credit default swaps, say — are encouraging regulators to review bitcoin futures more carefully. They have reason to be nervous. Any bitcoin futures trades will have to pass through clearing houses, where defaults are covered by member institutions, such as the brokerage arms of the big banks. If a mass of trades go bad, for example because a crash in the bitcoin price leaves lots of traders unable to make good on their trades, the clearing house could end up holding the bag.

通常急于在創(chuàng)新衍生工具(比如抵押貸款支持信用違約掉期)的突然火爆中牟利的華爾街銀行，正在鼓勵(lì)監(jiān)管部門(mén)更謹(jǐn)慎地審查比特幣期貨，這很能說(shuō)明問(wèn)題。他們有理由繃緊神經(jīng)。所有的比特幣期貨交易都將必須通過(guò)清算所完成，一旦出現(xiàn)違約將由成員機(jī)構(gòu)負(fù)責(zé)，比如大型銀行的經(jīng)紀(jì)業(yè)務(wù)部門(mén)。一旦大批交易出現(xiàn)問(wèn)題，比如因?yàn)楸忍貛艃r(jià)格崩盤(pán)導(dǎo)致大批交易者無(wú)法完成交易，最終背鍋的可能是清算所。

It may also be that the banks simply do not want to be involved. As demonstrated by the spiking price, the bitcoin market lacks natural sellers (other than bitcoin “miners” who need to sell bitcoins to pay the electricity bills on their computerised mines). This would leave the brokers either taking the “short” side of trades themselves, a big risk, or refusing to take clients’ trades and potentially losing business.

也可能銀行業(yè)只是不想?yún)⑴c其中。正如其價(jià)格飆升所表明的那樣，比特幣市場(chǎng)缺少自然的賣家(除了那些需要出售比特幣以支付計(jì)算機(jī)挖礦所耗電費(fèi)的比特幣“挖礦人”)。這使得經(jīng)紀(jì)商要么本身在交易中“做空”(這存在巨大的風(fēng)險(xiǎn))，要么拒絕為客戶交易、從而可能失去業(yè)務(wù)。

It may be that the futures markets will simply flop for lack of people willing to bet against bitcoin while the price is still rising. If so, good. Speculation in bitcoin (or any other arbitrary thing) should be allowed in a free society — so long as it does not put others at risk. If this collective waste of time and energy fails to take hold, that is likely to be for the best.

由于在價(jià)格繼續(xù)上漲時(shí)缺少愿意押注比特幣價(jià)格下跌的人，期貨市場(chǎng)可能會(huì)失敗。如果真是這樣，那也不錯(cuò)。自由社會(huì)應(yīng)該允許比特幣(或任何一種東西)投機(jī)行為的存在——只要這種行為不會(huì)把他人置于險(xiǎn)境。如果這種集體浪費(fèi)時(shí)間和能源的行為最終沒(méi)能站穩(wěn)腳跟，那可能是最好的結(jié)果。

But will no one else get hurt? Of course, bitcoin could crash to zero. A lot of paper wealth would disappear. But bitcoin is not a bank. It is not highly leveraged, and it seems to have been used as collateral in only a limited number of cases. Much of its nominal value is in essence “found money”. So there is limited cause for worry — until the value gets much higher, or much more leverage seeps into the financial ecosystem surrounding the cryptocurrency. This could happen. Regulators need to follow events closely, and insist on high-margin requirements and tight risk controls for trading in derivatives.

但是不會(huì)有其他人受傷嗎?當(dāng)然，比特幣可能會(huì)暴跌到零。很多賬面財(cái)富都會(huì)消失。但比特幣不是銀行。比特幣的杠桿不高，似乎只在有限的情況中被用作抵押物。比特幣大部分名義價(jià)值本質(zhì)上屬于“意外之財(cái)”。因此沒(méi)必要太過(guò)擔(dān)憂——除非其價(jià)值進(jìn)一步大幅攀升、或者人們?cè)趪@這種加密貨幣的金融生態(tài)系統(tǒng)中瘋狂加杠桿。這種情況可能出現(xiàn)。監(jiān)管部門(mén)需要密切跟蹤事態(tài)發(fā)展，并且對(duì)比特幣衍生品交易堅(jiān)持高保證金的要求，并實(shí)行嚴(yán)格的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)控制。

While there are no legitimate, non-speculative reasons to buy bitcoin, there are of course significant illegitimate ones. So long as it retains value, bitcoin is a useful tool for tax evaders, money launderers, and anyone who wishes to avoid the rules and regulations that govern traditional fiat currencies. So while it is not necessary to put up regulatory barriers to trading bitcoin, the points where it connects with traditional currencies, banking systems, and tax regimes should be carefully controlled. Innovative technology is not a licence to break the law.

盡管沒(méi)有合理的非投機(jī)性理由來(lái)購(gòu)買比特幣，但確實(shí)有重要的非法理由來(lái)購(gòu)買它。只要比特幣還存在價(jià)值，它就是人們逃稅、洗錢(qián)以及躲避傳統(tǒng)法定貨幣相關(guān)法規(guī)的有效工具。因此，盡管沒(méi)有必要對(duì)比特幣交易設(shè)置監(jiān)管障礙，但有關(guān)部門(mén)應(yīng)該謹(jǐn)慎控制比特幣與傳統(tǒng)貨幣、銀行系統(tǒng)以及稅收制度的連接點(diǎn)。創(chuàng)新技術(shù)不是違法行為的許可證。