退歐之后倫敦仍將吸引歐洲人才

It is easy to feel gloomy about the fate of London after Brexit. Since the referendum result was declared, the capital’s residents have anxiously debated what will happen when the flow of European workers to their city is suddenly restricted: who will make their coffee, programme their software, build their houses and staff their hospitals?

人們很容易對(duì)倫敦在英國(guó)退歐之后的命運(yùn)感到悲觀。自從公投結(jié)果出爐以來(lái)，英國(guó)首都的市民們一直在憂心忡忡地辯論，如果流向該市的歐洲員工突然受限會(huì)發(fā)生什么?誰(shuí)還會(huì)給他們做咖啡、為他們的軟件編寫(xiě)程序、建造他們的房屋和在醫(yī)院護(hù)理他們?

It is true that with just under a million EU residents, London potentially has the most to lose from the end to free movement which is almost certain to accompany the split from Brussels.

確實(shí)，倫敦目前擁有略少于100萬(wàn)的歐盟居民，因此倫敦可能是歐盟人員自由流動(dòng)終止(在英國(guó)脫離歐盟后，這個(gè)局面幾乎肯定會(huì)出現(xiàn))的最大受害者。

The capital is home to 13 per cent of the UK’s population but a third of its EU citizens. As the government has increased visa curbs on migrants from outside Europe, London’s employers have become ever more reliant on the unlimited supply of workers from the continent.

倫敦人口占整個(gè)英國(guó)總?cè)丝诘?3%，但居住在倫敦的歐盟公民占英國(guó)總數(shù)的三分之一。在政府收緊對(duì)歐洲以外移民的簽證限制之際，倫敦的雇主已經(jīng)變得越來(lái)越依賴歐洲大陸提供源源不斷的勞動(dòng)者。

Meanwhile, Londoners are on average far more pro-migration and pro-Remain than their fellow Britons, so are likely to feel the loss of diversity more keenly. But amongst the angst, one crucial point may be forgotten: that the capital is actually much better placed to survive a restrictive new immigration regime than other parts of the country.

與此同時(shí)，倫敦人一般要比其他地區(qū)的英國(guó)人更支持移民和留在歐盟。因此，他們可能會(huì)更真切地感受到多元化的喪失。但在這種憂慮中，人們可能忘記了一個(gè)關(guān)鍵問(wèn)題：與英國(guó)其他地區(qū)相比，首都實(shí)際上處于有利得多的地位，能夠承受新的、限制性的移民體制。

In fact, Londoners should be reassured that for all types of European migrants — workers, spouses, and students — the capital may remain a far easier place than the regions to work and settle.

實(shí)際上，倫敦人應(yīng)該放心：對(duì)于各類歐洲移民(員工、配偶和學(xué)生)，倫敦可能仍是比英國(guó)其他地方容易得多的工作和定居地點(diǎn)。

We know this because a leaked Home Office plan for post-Brexit immigration has provided some insight into the hurdles that EU migrants will face in future.

我們知道這點(diǎn)，是因?yàn)橛?guó)內(nèi)政部(Home Office)一份被泄露的有關(guān)退歐后的移民計(jì)劃，讓我們對(duì)歐盟移民未來(lái)將面臨的障礙有所了解。

To qualify for a work permit, skilled workers from the continent will probably have to earn above a fixed salary threshold. To bring a foreign spouse into the UK, they will definitely have to prove an income high enough to support them. So for both employment and family unification, being in London — where wages are nearly a third higher than the national average — is likely to be a significant advantage.

要符合工作許可資格，來(lái)自歐洲大陸的高技能員工可能必須賺到超過(guò)某個(gè)固定薪資門(mén)檻的收入。要把外籍配偶帶到英國(guó)，他們肯定必須證明自己的收入足夠承擔(dān)家庭生活開(kāi)銷。因此，對(duì)于就業(yè)和家庭團(tuán)聚兩大類，身在倫敦可能是一項(xiàng)重大優(yōu)勢(shì)，因?yàn)閭惗氐男劫Y比英國(guó)平均水平高出近三分之一。

Universities based in the capital should also find it easier to attract EU students than institutions across the rest of the country. This is partly due to the quality of London’s academic centres: it has three of the UK’s top universities — Imperial College, University College London and the London School of Economics. Early indications about the effect of Brexit on student numbers suggest that while applications from EU students to British universities fell by about 5 per cent on average in the year following the referendum, at Imperial, EU applications rose by 5 per cent. The falling value of the pound has also made London better value as a study destination compared with other international capitals.

位于首都的大學(xué)也應(yīng)該發(fā)現(xiàn)，它們要比英國(guó)其他學(xué)府更容易吸引歐盟學(xué)生。部分原因是倫敦學(xué)術(shù)機(jī)構(gòu)的質(zhì)量：倫敦?fù)碛杏?guó)最頂尖的3所大學(xué)，帝國(guó)理工學(xué)院(Imperial College)、倫敦大學(xué)學(xué)院(University College London)和倫敦政治經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)院(London School of Economics)。有關(guān)英國(guó)退歐對(duì)學(xué)生數(shù)量影響的早期跡象顯示，盡管在公投后第二年申請(qǐng)英國(guó)大學(xué)的歐盟學(xué)生數(shù)量平均減少約5%，但在帝國(guó)理工學(xué)院，歐盟學(xué)生的申請(qǐng)數(shù)量增加5%。英鎊貶值也讓在倫敦留學(xué)比其他國(guó)際城市具有更高的性價(jià)比。

This is not to say that the transition will be easy. Richard Brown, director of research at the Centre for London think-tank, makes clear that freedom of movement is as much about a welcoming, international culture as it is about hard numbers of migrants and the need to fill skills gaps. He fears that any new system in which the flow of Europeans is regulated or “policed” — however lightly — will change the way both Londoners and visitors feel about the capital’s long-established cosmopolitan nature.

這并不是說(shuō)過(guò)渡將是輕松的。英國(guó)智庫(kù)Centre for London研究總監(jiān)理查德•布朗(Richard Brown)明確表示，人員自由流動(dòng)既是關(guān)于硬性的移民人數(shù)限制和填補(bǔ)技能缺口的需要，也是從容友善的、國(guó)際視野的文化。他擔(dān)心，任何新的受監(jiān)管或管制的歐洲人員流動(dòng)體系(不管多么寬松)，都將改變倫敦人和外來(lái)人員雙方對(duì)于英國(guó)首都長(zhǎng)期以來(lái)的大都市風(fēng)范的感覺(jué)。

Meanwhile, London businesses and lobby groups have expressed understandable concerns about an under-supply of lower-skilled EU workers who would not meet income thresholds if these are imposed. It is the loss of these workers — rather than high-flying financiers — which will have the most impact on Londoners’ day-to-day lifestyles.

與此同時(shí)，倫敦企業(yè)和游說(shuō)組織表達(dá)了對(duì)低技能歐盟員工供應(yīng)不足的擔(dān)憂，這是可以理解的，如果實(shí)施準(zhǔn)入標(biāo)準(zhǔn)，他們將達(dá)不到收入門(mén)檻。失去這些員工(而非趾高氣揚(yáng)的金融家)將對(duì)倫敦人的日常生活方式造成最嚴(yán)重影響。

Businesses argue that current record employment levels mean there are simply not enough Britons available to perform these roles. Their answer is that the government should create an array of exceptional visas for Europeans working in key low-paid sectors, from technology start-ups to care homes, coffee shops and construction sites.

企業(yè)辯稱，目前創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的就業(yè)水平意味著根本沒(méi)有足夠的英國(guó)人承擔(dān)這些工作。他們提議，政府應(yīng)該為在關(guān)鍵低薪行業(yè)工作的歐洲人提供一系列特殊簽證，從科技初創(chuàng)企業(yè)到養(yǎng)老院、咖啡廳和建筑工地。

Even in recruiting for these jobs, London has advantages over the rest of the country. Young foreign workers wanting to improve their English during a short spell in Britain may well prefer a stint in an exciting capital city to one in a rural outpost. Potential migrants can also be confident that London, as a Remain stronghold, is more likely to embrace them than other regions which voted for Brexit.

就連在為這些崗位招聘員工時(shí)，倫敦也具備相對(duì)于英國(guó)其他地區(qū)的優(yōu)勢(shì)。希望在短時(shí)間內(nèi)在英國(guó)提高英語(yǔ)水平的年輕外籍員工，很有可能更喜歡在令人振奮的首都工作一段時(shí)間，而不是去某個(gè)偏遠(yuǎn)農(nóng)村地區(qū)。潛在移民還有可能相信，與投票支持退歐的英國(guó)其他地區(qū)相比，倫敦作為一個(gè)留歐陣營(yíng)的據(jù)點(diǎn)，更有可能接納他們。

Overall, the real cause for anxiety is not London’s labour shortage but that of the UK’s industrial heartlands, which tend to be wary of migrants but could struggle to meet the need for skills in a newly “independent” UK. By contrast, the capital might grieve for its lost ties to the union, but at least it is dynamic enough to keep drawing in the talented foreigners that it both wants and needs.

總的來(lái)說(shuō)，真正令人焦慮的并不是倫敦遭遇勞動(dòng)力短缺，而是英國(guó)工業(yè)地帶的勞動(dòng)力短缺，這些地方的英國(guó)人往往對(duì)移民感到擔(dān)憂，但可能難以在一個(gè)新的“獨(dú)立”英國(guó)滿足技能需求。相比之下，英國(guó)首都可能會(huì)為喪失與歐盟的聯(lián)系而哀傷，但至少它有足夠的活力，能夠繼續(xù)吸引它想要和需要的優(yōu)秀外國(guó)人才。