IMF：全球迎來最廣泛的加速增長

The International Monetary Fund hailed the “broadest synchronised global growth upsurge since 2010” as the global elite arrived at the World Economic Forum in Davos yesterday in ebullient mood.

國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)宣告迎來“自2010年以來覆蓋面最廣的全球同步增長加快”。與此同時，全球精英們昨日懷著興奮的心情抵達達沃斯出席世界經(jīng)濟論壇(WEF)。

Consigning the troubles of the past decade to history, the upgraded IMF forecasts signalled the strongest global outlook since the start of 2010.

調(diào)高后的IMF預(yù)測一掃過去10年的陰暗表述，描繪自2010年初以來最強勁的全球前景。

The optimism was matched by a jump in chief executives’ confidence about their companies’ prospects, detailed in an annual survey by PwC, the professional services firm. Speaking in Davos, Christine Lagarde, managing director of the IMF, said: “All signs point to a further strengthening [in global growth] both this year and next. This is very welcome news.”

與這種樂觀情緒相稱的是首席執(zhí)行官們對各自公司的前景信心大增，這反映于專業(yè)服務(wù)公司普華永道(PwC)的一項年度調(diào)查。IMF總裁克里斯蒂娜•拉加德(Christine Lagarde)在達沃斯發(fā)表講話時表示：“所有跡象都表明全球經(jīng)濟增長在今年和明年都會進一步加強。這是非?？上驳南?。”

With memories of the global financial crash still raw and Greece just beginning to emerge from the crisis, the mood among chief executives arriving in the Swiss mountain resort is more positive than at any stage since the boom of more than a decade ago.

在世人對全球金融危機仍然記憶猶新，而希臘剛剛開始擺脫危機的背景下，抵達達沃斯這個瑞士度假勝地的首席執(zhí)行官們的情緒，比10多年前的繁榮時期以來的任何階段都更加積極。

Bob Moritz, global chairman of PwC, said: “Chief executives’ optimism in the global economy is driven by the economic indicators being so strong. With the stock markets booming . . . it’s no surprise CEOs are so bullish.”

普華永道全球董事長鮑勃•莫瑞茲(Bob Moritz)表示：“首席執(zhí)行官們對全球經(jīng)濟的樂觀看法受到極其強勁的經(jīng)濟指標(biāo)的推動?？紤]到股市高漲……難怪首席執(zhí)行官們會如此滿懷信心。”

The IMF upgraded its forecasts for world economic growth for 2017, 2018 and 2019. Better data than expected in the autumn raised the growth predictions for last year, with momentum carried forward into 2018 and augmented by the US corporate tax cuts.

IMF調(diào)高了其2017年、2018年和2019年世界經(jīng)濟增長預(yù)測。好于預(yù)期的秋季數(shù)據(jù)提升了對去年的增長預(yù)測，而這股勢頭在2018年得以延續(xù)，并受到美國削減公司稅率的增強。

The world economy was likely to grow 3.9 per cent this year and next, the fund said, up 0.2 percentage points for both years on the back of a better outlook in the US and eurozone.

該組織表示，今年和明年世界經(jīng)濟有望分別增長3.9%，比之前的預(yù)測都高出0.2個百分點，原因是美國和歐元區(qū)的前景都更加光明。

With Donald Trump, the US president, due to give a speech at the forum on Friday, the IMF raised the US growth forecast for 2018 from 2.3 per cent to 2.7 per cent and added a 0.6 percentage point upgrade to its 2019 US forecast, lifting it to 2.5 per cent.

美國總統(tǒng)唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)周五在世界經(jīng)濟論壇發(fā)表講話前夕，IMF將美國2018年經(jīng)濟增長預(yù)測從2.3%上調(diào)至2.7%，并將2019年美國增長預(yù)測上調(diào)0.6個百分點，至2.5%。

By 2020, it said, the total effect of the corporate tax cuts was likely to boost the US economy 1.2 per cent, although there would be some payback in subsequent years as the nation had to restore its public finances. Canada and Mexico would also benefit from the US fiscal expansion, the fund said, exporting more to the world’s most important economy as demand increased.

到2020年時，削減公司稅率的總體效用有望給美國經(jīng)濟帶來1.2%的額外增長，盡管隨著國家不得不恢復(fù)公共財政，之后幾年會付出一些代價。IMF表示，加拿大和墨西哥也將受益于美國的財政擴張。隨著需求增加，這兩個國家對世界最重要經(jīng)濟體的出口將相應(yīng)增長。

While advanced economies are performing better than expected, the IMF noted that the fastest growing region continued to be Asia, with the supersized economies of China and India in the driving seat. “The region continues to account for over half of world growth,” the fund said. But Ms Lagarde stressed that while she was “encouraged” by the global outlook, “we should not feel satisfied”. Despite the IMF seeing balanced risks for the two years ahead, she highlighted the threats to the sustainability of the upswing.

盡管發(fā)達經(jīng)濟體的表現(xiàn)好于預(yù)期，但IMF指出，增長最快的地區(qū)仍然是亞洲，中國和印度這兩個大型經(jīng)濟體在亞洲起到拉動作用。“該地區(qū)繼續(xù)占全球增長的一半以上，”該組織表示。但拉加德強調(diào)，盡管全球前景使她受到“鼓舞”，但是“我們不應(yīng)該感到滿足”。盡管IMF認為未來兩年風(fēng)險均衡，但她強調(diào)了當(dāng)前增長的可持續(xù)性所面臨的威脅。