歐洲央行擔心特朗普發(fā)動匯率戰(zhàn)

Eurozone concerns over the weakness of the dollar were laid bare in a set of European Central Bank minutes that highlighted fears the Trump administration was deliberately trying to engage in currency wars.

歐元區(qū)對美元疲軟的擔憂在歐洲央行(ECB)會議紀要中表露無疑，這些會議紀要突顯對特朗普政府蓄意挑起匯率戰(zhàn)爭的擔心。

The account of the ECB’s January monetary policy meeting also reveals that its hawkish members pushed for a change in the bank’s communications, arguing economic conditions were now strong enough to drop a commitment to boost the quantitative easing programme in the event of a slowdown.

歐洲央行1月貨幣政策會議的記錄還顯示，其鷹派成員主張該行應該改變公開言論的措辭，他們辯稱，經(jīng)濟狀況現(xiàn)在已經(jīng)足夠強勁，不需要再承諾在經(jīng)濟放緩的情況下加大量化寬松計劃力度。

Mario Draghi, ECB president, last month hit out at US Treasury secretary Steven Mnuchin’s claim that a weak dollar was good for the American economy. Mr Draghi said Washington needed to uphold the rules of the international monetary system, which forbid nations from deliberately devaluing their currencies.

歐洲央行行長馬里奧•德拉吉(Mario Draghi)上月抨擊了美國財政部長史蒂文•姆努欽(Steven Mnuchin)有關弱勢美元對美國經(jīng)濟有利的說法。德拉吉表示，華盛頓需要堅持國際貨幣體系的規(guī)則，這些規(guī)則禁止各國故意讓本幣貶值。

Mr Mnuchin’s remarks were seen as a signal that the US could ditch its strong dollar policy — which could lower eurozone exports and make it harder for the ECB to hit its inflation target.

姆努欽的言論被視為一個信號，即美國可能放棄其強勢美元政策，這可能會削弱歐元區(qū)出口，并使歐洲央行更難達到其通脹目標。

Mr Mnuchin later said his comments were “completely consistent with what I’ve said before” and that he had merely made a “factual statement” that a weaker dollar would help the US on trade in the short term. President Donald Trump has also since reaffirmed the strong dollar policy.

姆努欽后來表示，他的言論“與我之前所說的完全一致”，他只是做出了一個“事實陳述”，即美元疲軟在短期內(nèi)將有助于美國的貿(mào)易。美國總統(tǒng)唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)隨后重申了強勢美元政策。

The accounts of the ECB meeting on January 24-25, published on Thursday, show Mr Draghi’s fears were widely shared among the bank’s decision makers. “Concerns were . . . expressed about recent statements in the international arena about exchange rate developments and, more broadly, the overall state of international relations,” the account said. “The importance of adhering to agreed statements on the exchange rate was emphasised.” Those agreements explicitly rule out competitive devaluations.

周四公布的1月24日至25日歐洲央行會議紀要顯示，德拉吉的擔憂在該行決策者中引發(fā)廣泛共鳴。“與會者對于最近國際舞臺上關于匯率動向的聲明以及——更為廣泛地說——國際關系總體狀況表達了關注，”會議紀要稱。“與會者強調(diào)了遵守關于匯率的約定聲明的重要性。”那些約定明確排除競爭性貨幣貶值。

The volatility in the euro was, the account said, “a source of uncertainty which required monitoring”.

會議紀要稱，歐元的波動是“一個需要監(jiān)測的不確定因素來源”。

The decline in the greenback following Mr Mnuchin’s remarks led the euro to soar to $1.25 in the days following the January 25 meeting of the ECB. The euro is now trading below $1.23.

在姆努欽發(fā)表“弱勢美元有利”言論后，美元走低導致歐元在歐洲央行1月25日會議后的幾天飆升至1歐元兌1.25美元。目前歐元已回落至1歐元兌1.23美元水平以下。

The minutes highlighted dissent over the bank’s communications on its policy intentions, an element of what policymakers dub “forward guidance”.

會議紀要暴露了各成員圍繞歐洲央行如何公開表述政策意圖的分歧，這方面的措辭是政策制定者所稱的“前瞻性指引”的一個元素。

The dissent was over the ECB’s promise to boost QE should economic conditions disappoint or financial conditions worsen.

分歧的焦點在于歐洲央行目前的一個承諾，即如果經(jīng)濟狀況令人失望或金融狀況惡化，該行將加大量化寬松力度。

“Some members expressed a preference for dropping the easing bias regarding the [QE programme] from the governing council’s communication as a tangible reflection of reinforced confidence in a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation,” the account said. “However, it was concluded that such an adjustment was premature and not yet justified by the stronger confidence.”

“一些成員表達了這樣一個愿望，即從管理委員會的公開聲明中刪除有關(量化寬松計劃的)寬松傾向的表述，以切實反映大家對通脹路徑出現(xiàn)可持續(xù)調(diào)整的信心有所增強，”會議紀要稱。“然而，會上得出的結(jié)論是，這樣的調(diào)整還為時過早，而且尚未得到更強信心的支持。”

The central bank is now buying €30bn of bonds a month under the €2.5tn QE programme and will continue to do so until at least September.

根據(jù)2.5萬億歐元的量化寬松計劃，歐洲央行目前每月購買300億歐元債券，這種操作至少將持續(xù)至9月份。