2月份中國(guó)制造業(yè)PMI降幅為六年來(lái)比較大

China’s official gauge of manufacturing activity for February suffered its largest drop since 2011, an unexpectedly sharp slowdown that left it near the zero-growth level.

2月份，中國(guó)官方衡量制造業(yè)活動(dòng)的指數(shù)出現(xiàn)2011年以來(lái)最大幅度的下降，制造業(yè)活動(dòng)的放緩幅度之大出乎人們的意料，其擴(kuò)張近乎為零。

The manufacturing purchasing managers’ index published by China’s National Bureau of Statistics fell to 50.3, down a point from January and the largest fall in more than six years. The fall marked the gauge’s nearest brush with the 50-point mark that separates growth from contraction since August 2016.

中國(guó)國(guó)家統(tǒng)計(jì)局公布的制造業(yè)采購(gòu)經(jīng)理人指數(shù)(PMI)降至50.3%，比1月份低了1個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，降幅為6年多來(lái)最大。此次下降是該指數(shù)自2016年8月以來(lái)最接近50%枯榮線的一次。

A median forecast from economists polled by Reuters had predicted only a fractional slowdown: none of the 28 forecasts for February had pencilled in a reading below 51 for the gauge, which is based on a survey of larger and predominantly state-run companies.

路透社(Reuters)調(diào)查的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家給出的預(yù)測(cè)中值是，該指數(shù)只會(huì)小幅下降。在對(duì)2月份制造業(yè)PMI的28個(gè)預(yù)測(cè)當(dāng)中，沒(méi)有一個(gè)認(rèn)為該指數(shù)會(huì)低于51%。該指數(shù)是基于對(duì)大中型且主要為國(guó)有的企業(yè)的調(diào)查得出的。

China’s statistics bureau on Wednesday attributed the slowdown to the lunar new year holiday, when migrant workers return to their home villages and output typically dips. In 2017 the holiday stretched from the end of January through early February, while this year’s holiday fell entirely in February, making for an unfavourable comparison.

周三，中國(guó)國(guó)家統(tǒng)計(jì)局將此次下降歸因于春節(jié)假期，其間外出務(wù)工人員返鄉(xiāng)、產(chǎn)出一般都會(huì)下降。2017年的春節(jié)假期是從1月底到2月初，而今年的假期完全落在2月份，不利于比較。

However, the downward move was outsized for the usually incremental series, making it the sharpest fall since a 1.4 point drop in late 2011 that pushed the gauge into contractionary territory.

但對(duì)近來(lái)一般都在逐步上升的該指數(shù)來(lái)說(shuō)，此次下降的幅度實(shí)在太大，降幅是自2011年底以來(lái)最大的。2011年底時(shí)該指數(shù)下降了1.4個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，降入榮枯線下方。

“The lower PMI readings for February may be partly due to Chinese new year, since seasonal adjustments may not fully iron out the impact in year-to-year shifts in the timing of the holiday,” said Julian Evans-Pritchard, senior China economist at Capital Economics. “But even if we account for such volatility by averaging across the first two months of the year, the data still point to a clear slowdown in early 2018.”

凱投宏觀(Capital Economics)高級(jí)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家朱利安•埃文斯-普里查德(Julian Evans-Pritchard)表示：“春節(jié)可能是2月份PMI讀數(shù)走低的部分原因，因?yàn)榧竟?jié)性調(diào)整可能無(wú)法完全熨平春節(jié)假期時(shí)間點(diǎn)的年度變化帶來(lái)的影響。但是，即使我們通過(guò)求今年頭兩個(gè)月的均值來(lái)計(jì)入這種波動(dòng)，數(shù)據(jù)仍顯示出2018年開(kāi)年出現(xiàn)明顯放緩。”

Betty Wang, senior China economist for ANZ, suggested authorities’ crackdown on heavy polluters “also played an important role in dampening the headline numbers on top of the holiday effect”. But she added that while the drive’s impact on manufacturing activity would probably last for another couple of months, it was unlikely to have an impact on policy direction.

澳新銀行(ANZ)高級(jí)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家王蕊(Betty Wang)表示，除了假期的影響，有關(guān)部門(mén)對(duì)嚴(yán)重污染企業(yè)的整頓也對(duì)推低PMI起到了重要作用。但她同時(shí)表示，雖然整頓舉措對(duì)制造業(yè)活動(dòng)的影響可能還會(huì)再持續(xù)幾個(gè)月，但它不可能對(duì)政策方向產(chǎn)生影響。