白宮要求中國(guó)大幅減少雙邊貿(mào)易的不平衡

The Trump administration wants China to import more cars, aircraft, soybeans and natural gas to meet Washington’s aim of cutting the US bilateral trade deficit by $100bn, according to people familiar with talks between the two countries.

知情人士透露，特朗普政府希望中國(guó)進(jìn)口更多汽車、飛機(jī)、大豆和天然氣，以達(dá)到華盛頓方面削減1000億美元美國(guó)對(duì)華貿(mào)易赤字的目標(biāo)。

Reducing the trade deficit through higher US exports could ease demands for curbs on Chinese exports to the US — and so help spare goods made by American companies in China from new US import tariffs.

通過提高美國(guó)出口來(lái)減少貿(mào)易逆差，可能緩解限制中國(guó)對(duì)美出口的要求，從而幫助美國(guó)公司在中國(guó)制造的產(chǎn)品免受美國(guó)新的進(jìn)口關(guān)稅的打擊。

Chinese envoy Liu He was asked for a written plan to reduce the US deficit during a White House meeting this month with treasury secretary Steven Mnuchin, US trade representative Robert Lighthizer and Gary Cohn, Mr Trump’s outgoing chief economic adviser, according to three people briefed on the discussions.

據(jù)三位聽取了商談情況簡(jiǎn)報(bào)的人士介紹，中國(guó)特使劉鶴本月在白宮與美國(guó)財(cái)長(zhǎng)史蒂文•姆努欽(Steven Mnuchin)、美國(guó)貿(mào)易代表羅伯特•萊特希澤(Robert Lighthizer)以及即將離任的特朗普首席經(jīng)濟(jì)顧問加里•科恩(Gary Cohn)會(huì)晤期間，被要求拿出一份減少美國(guó)對(duì)華貿(mào)易赤字的書面計(jì)劃。

The $100bn demand would account for more than a quarter of last year’s $375bn deficit in the trade in goods.

1000億美元的要求將占到去年美國(guó)3750億美元商品貿(mào)易逆差的四分之一以上。

The White House set its demand high so that Beijing — which has offered to liberalise financial services and drop some foreign shareholding limits, but has stopped short of specific timelines — would struggle to meet it.

白宮開口提出較高的要求，使得北京方面難以達(dá)到。中方已承諾放開金融服務(wù)和放棄一部分外資持股限制，但沒有拿出具體時(shí)間表。

The Chinese delegation’s initial response was that a demand to cut the deficit by fiat was not a market-oriented way of doing business.

中國(guó)代表團(tuán)的初步回應(yīng)是，指令式減少赤字的要求不是以市場(chǎng)為導(dǎo)向的處置方式。

The preferred option for reaching the $100bn target is for the US to increase exports to China sharply, probably by increasing shipments of soyabeans, aircraft, cars and natural gas.

達(dá)到1000億美元目標(biāo)的首選方案是美國(guó)大幅增加對(duì)華出口，很可能是通過增加大豆、飛機(jī)、汽車和天然氣銷售。

The target could also be reached with sharp cuts in Chinese exports of manufactured goods such as machinery and electrical products, or a combination of both higher US exports and lower imports.

達(dá)到這一目標(biāo)的途徑也可以是大幅減少中國(guó)的機(jī)械和電子產(chǎn)品等制成品的出口，或者增加美國(guó)對(duì)華出口與減少?gòu)闹袊?guó)進(jìn)口相結(jié)合。

The target is 100 times the size of a deficit reduction goal President Donald Trump referred to last week, when he tweeted that China had been asked for a “One Billion Dollar reduction in their massive Trade Deficit with the US”.

這個(gè)削減赤字的目標(biāo)比唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)總統(tǒng)上周提到的數(shù)字大了100倍，當(dāng)時(shí)他在Twitter上寫道，中國(guó)已被要求“將美國(guó)的巨額對(duì)華貿(mào)易逆差減少10億美元”。

“I was thinking, how could it be only $1bn? Then I heard he got the number wrong,” said Li Yong, senior fellow at the China Association of International Trade. Mr Li added that setting a number could help produce a “pragmatic attitude” towards the issue but would not work as a “rigid target”.

“我當(dāng)時(shí)就在想，怎么可能只有10億美元?然后我聽說他搞錯(cuò)了數(shù)字，”中國(guó)國(guó)際貿(mào)易學(xué)會(huì)(China Association of International Trade)高級(jí)研究員李永表示。李永補(bǔ)充說，設(shè)定一個(gè)數(shù)字可能有助于雙方在這個(gè)問題上產(chǎn)生“務(wù)實(shí)的態(tài)度”，但作為一個(gè)“僵化的目標(biāo)”不會(huì)管用。

Chinese and US calculations of the trade gap differ by up to 20 per cent, commerce minister Zhong Shan said on Sunday. “The imbalance is partly due to American export restrictions,” he said, referring to high-tech and military-use items that the US blocks for export to China. “If those were relaxed, the deficit would be cut by one-third.”

中國(guó)商務(wù)部部長(zhǎng)鐘山周日表示，中美對(duì)貿(mào)易差距的計(jì)算結(jié)果相差高達(dá)20%。他指出這種不平衡的部分原因是美國(guó)的對(duì)華出口管制——此言指的是美國(guó)禁止向中國(guó)出口高科技和軍事物品。他稱，如果出口管制放松了，赤字就會(huì)減少三分之一。

He added: “No one wins from a trade war.”

他補(bǔ)充說：“貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)沒有贏家。”

Mr Trump hinted at the discussions last week during an announcement of new tariffs on steel and aluminium imports. “We’re negotiating, now, with China. I don’t know that anything’s going to come of it. They have been very helpful,” he told reporters.

特朗普最近在宣布對(duì)鋼鐵和鋁進(jìn)口開征新關(guān)稅時(shí)，隱約提到了上述討論。“我們正在與中國(guó)談判。我不知道會(huì)有什么結(jié)果。他們一直非常樂于幫忙，”他對(duì)記者們表示。

But Beijing and the Trump administration are on different pages, one person with knowledge of the talks said. The White House wants long-term changes in the balance of trade through structural reforms to China’s intellectual property regime and the lifting of tariffs on automobile and other US exports into China.

但是，了解談判情況的一位知情人士說，北京方面和特朗普政府難以談攏。白宮希望中國(guó)對(duì)知識(shí)產(chǎn)權(quán)制度進(jìn)行結(jié)構(gòu)性改革，并消除針對(duì)美國(guó)汽車和其他產(chǎn)品的關(guān)稅，從而實(shí)現(xiàn)貿(mào)易平衡的長(zhǎng)期變化。

“The two sides are almost talking past each other,” the person said. “Most people are sceptical that at the end of the day the Chinese are going to do something that impacts the priorities of the administration.”

“雙方幾乎是在各說各的，”這位人士說。“對(duì)于中國(guó)人最終會(huì)不會(huì)做一些對(duì)本屆行政當(dāng)局的優(yōu)先事項(xiàng)有影響的事情，多數(shù)人表示懷疑。”

Much of the trade gap reflects manufacturing by US brands in China that takes advantage of the country’s lower wages, looser environmental regulations and increasingly well-integrated supply chain and logistics infrastructure.

很大一部分貿(mào)易逆差反映了美國(guó)品牌在中國(guó)從事的制造活動(dòng)——利用中國(guó)的較低工資、較寬松的環(huán)境法規(guī)，以及日益完善的供應(yīng)鏈和物流基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施。

More than 50 per cent of the Chinese trade surplus with the US comes from shipments of American-branded goods including Apple products, according to data from the China Chamber of Commerce for Machinery and Electronic Products.

根據(jù)中國(guó)機(jī)電產(chǎn)品進(jìn)出口商會(huì)(CCCME)的數(shù)據(jù)，50%以上的中國(guó)對(duì)美貿(mào)易順差來(lái)自美國(guó)品牌商品——包括蘋果(Apple)產(chǎn)品——的出貨量。

“We have to acknowledge the market effect. There are 500,000 American importers — why are they buying from China?" said Mr Li of the China Association of International Trade. “American companies look for the best price to purchase and therefore maintain their growth and profits.”

“我們必須承認(rèn)市場(chǎng)效應(yīng)。美國(guó)有50萬(wàn)進(jìn)口商——他們?yōu)槭裁匆獜闹袊?guó)購(gòu)買?”中國(guó)國(guó)際貿(mào)易學(xué)會(huì)的李永問道。“美國(guó)公司尋覓最佳的購(gòu)買價(jià)格，從而保持自己的增長(zhǎng)和利潤(rùn)。”

Zhang Monan, of the China Center for International Economic Exchange, said recent US tax changes had “a clear effect” on short-term consumption and therefore on American imports from China. “American consumption is up but there has been no change in American exports,” she said.

中國(guó)國(guó)際經(jīng)濟(jì)交流中心(CCIEE)的張茉楠表示，近期美國(guó)的稅收變化對(duì)短期消費(fèi)以及美國(guó)從中國(guó)的進(jìn)口具有“明顯影響”。“美國(guó)人的消費(fèi)增加了，但美國(guó)的出口沒有變化，”她表示。

The Trump administration is preparing tariffs targeted against China, as well as investment and visa restrictions, to pressure Beijing over its intellectual property regime, its use of commercial espionage and its requirement that foreign investors transfer technologies to Chinese partners. Such practices are estimated to have saved China tens of billions of dollars.

特朗普政府正準(zhǔn)備針對(duì)中國(guó)實(shí)施關(guān)稅，外加投資和簽證限制，以便向北京方面施壓，矛頭指向中國(guó)的知識(shí)產(chǎn)權(quán)制度、其商業(yè)間諜活動(dòng)，以及其要求外國(guó)投資者將技術(shù)轉(zhuǎn)讓給中國(guó)合資伙伴。據(jù)估計(jì)，這些做法已經(jīng)為中國(guó)節(jié)省了數(shù)百億美元。

Eswar Prasad, a China expert at Cornell University, said Chinese officials told him Washington asked Mr Liu to reduce the US’s trade deficit with China by about $75bn.

康奈爾大學(xué)(Cornell University)的中國(guó)問題專家埃斯瓦爾•普拉薩德(Eswar Prasad)表示，中國(guó)官員告訴他，華盛頓要求劉鶴減少約750億美元的美國(guó)對(duì)華貿(mào)易逆差。

He added: “The new tariffs [on steel and aluminium] have strengthened the Trump administration’s hand in negotiations with China since the threat of broad and tough US unilateral trade sanctions can no longer be taken lightly.”

他補(bǔ)充說：“(對(duì)鋼鐵和鋁的)新關(guān)稅加強(qiáng)了特朗普政府對(duì)華談判的地位，因?yàn)槊绹?guó)采取廣泛和嚴(yán)厲單邊貿(mào)易制裁的威脅再也不能被輕視。”