尼克松見(jiàn)毛澤東之前記了筆記，特朗普呢？

SINGAPORE — In 1972, while stopping in Hawaii en route to Beijing, President Nixon jotted a few notes to himself on a yellow pad ahead of his historic encounter with Mao Zedong, the revolutionary founder of the People’s Republic of China.

新加坡——1972年，尼克松總統(tǒng)在前往北京的途中在夏威夷短暫停留時(shí)，在一個(gè)黃色便箋本上草草記下了一些提醒自己的東西，很快他將與創(chuàng)建中華人民共和國(guó)的革命領(lǐng)袖毛澤東舉行歷史性的會(huì)面。

Preparing for a meeting that would change the course of the Cold War, Nixon distilled history, politics and strategy into a handful of bullet points: What did China want? What did the United States want? What did they both want?

為了給一次會(huì)改變冷戰(zhàn)進(jìn)程的會(huì)面做準(zhǔn)備，尼克松把歷史、政治和戰(zhàn)略提煉為幾個(gè)要點(diǎn)：中國(guó)想要什么?美國(guó)想要什么?兩國(guó)都想要什么?

President Trump has said he does not need to prepare for his summit meeting with Kim Jong-un, the North Korean leader. But if Mr. Trump or an adviser were to make a similar set of notes, what might they say?

特朗普總統(tǒng)已表示，他不需要為與朝鮮領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人金正恩的峰會(huì)做準(zhǔn)備。但假設(shè)特朗普或他的某個(gè)顧問(wèn)準(zhǔn)備了一份類似筆記的話，上面會(huì)寫(xiě)些什么呢?

‘What They Want’

‘他們想要的’

Nixon answered this question for China in three concise answers: Build up their world credentials. Taiwan. Get the U.S. out of Asia.

尼克松用三個(gè)簡(jiǎn)潔的答案替中國(guó)回答了這個(gè)問(wèn)題：建立他們走上世界舞臺(tái)的資格。臺(tái)灣。讓美國(guó)離開(kāi)亞洲。

Mr. Trump might also reduce North Korea’s concerns to three points:

特朗普或許也可以把朝鮮的擔(dān)憂歸納為三點(diǎn)：

1. Security

1. 安全

Mr. Kim’s top priority is the security of his nation and the survival of the totalitarian regime that he inherited from his father and grandfather. He has said this is why he needs a nuclear arsenal — to deter the United States from attacking North Korea and attempting to overthrow him, as some in Washington have advocated.

金正恩的首要任務(wù)是國(guó)家安全，以及他從父親和祖父那里繼承下來(lái)的極權(quán)主義政權(quán)的生存。他曾說(shuō)，那就是他為什么需要核武庫(kù)的原因——讓美國(guó)不敢打朝鮮、試圖推翻他，正如華盛頓的一些人所主張的那樣。

But he has also committed to denuclearization, as long as the North can be guaranteed of its security. That is one reason a formal peace treaty ending the Korean War is under discussion. It could include assurances from both China and the United States and might lead eventually to the withdrawal of American troops from South Korea.

但他也承諾要實(shí)現(xiàn)無(wú)核化，條件是朝鮮的安全能得到保障。這就是正在討論結(jié)束朝鮮戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)的正式和平條約的原因之一。和平條約可能將中國(guó)和美國(guó)的保證包括進(jìn)來(lái)，并可能最終導(dǎo)致美國(guó)從韓國(guó)撤走駐軍。

2. Respect

2. 尊重

If Mao was interested in China’s “world credentials,” Mr. Kim may be more interested in building up his reputation at home.

如果說(shuō)毛澤東是對(duì)中國(guó)的“世界舞臺(tái)資格”感興趣的話，金正恩也許對(duì)在國(guó)內(nèi)樹(shù)立自己的聲譽(yù)更感興趣。

Being treated as an equal by Mr. Trump confers prestige on Mr. Kim that he can use to strengthen his grip on power.

得到特朗普的平等對(duì)待，會(huì)給金正恩帶來(lái)聲望，他可以借此來(lái)加強(qiáng)自己對(duì)權(quán)力的掌握。

Recognition as a nuclear state and acceptance in the international community would also bolster his position and allow him to boast of an achievement that eluded his father and grandfather. It is also a reason he may be reluctant to give up the weapons.

作為一個(gè)有核國(guó)家得到承認(rèn)、被國(guó)際社會(huì)接受也會(huì)加強(qiáng)金正恩的地位，讓他能夸耀自己取得了父親和祖父未能取得的成就。這也是他可能不愿放棄核武器的一個(gè)原因。

3. Economic relief

3. 經(jīng)濟(jì)救援

Mr. Kim has long called for the simultaneous pursuit of nuclear weapons and economic growth, but he abruptly announced in April that he was adopting a “new strategic line” that focuses on rebuilding the economy.

金正恩曾一直長(zhǎng)期號(hào)召在發(fā)展核武器的同時(shí)追求經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)，但今年4月他突然宣布，將采取以重建經(jīng)濟(jì)為重點(diǎn)的“新戰(zhàn)略方針”。

He has already allowed some market forces to take hold, but there is a limit to the progress North Korea can make while isolated by international sanctions.

雖然他已經(jīng)允許一些市場(chǎng)力量發(fā)揮作用，但在被國(guó)際制裁孤立的情況下，朝鮮能夠取得的進(jìn)展有限。

“This is our biggest point of leverage,” said Suzanne DiMaggio, a director and senior fellow at the New America research group who has been involved in unofficial talks with North Korea.

“這是我們最大的砝碼，”蘇珊娜·迪馬喬(Suzanne DiMaggio)說(shuō)，她是研究機(jī)構(gòu)新美國(guó)(New America)的主任兼高級(jí)研究員。

‘What We Want’

‘我們想要的’

Nixon’s wish list from China included both immediate and long-term items — help ending the Vietnam War, restraining the spread of communism in Asia and reducing “the threat of a confrontation by Chinese Super Power.”

尼克松想從中國(guó)得到的東西的一覽表既包括了眼前的、也包括長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)的——幫助結(jié)束越南戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)，抑制共產(chǎn)主義在亞洲的蔓延，減少“與中國(guó)超級(jí)大國(guó)對(duì)抗的威脅”。

Mr. Trump’s list for North Korea may be a similar combination of short- and long-term goals:

特朗普給朝鮮列出的清單也許是類似的短期和長(zhǎng)期目標(biāo)的組合：

1. Denuclearization

1. 無(wú)核化

This is the holy grail. It is critical to the balance of power in the region and global efforts to prevent nuclear proliferation. But the vast scope of North Korea’s program — and the fact that it has already tested and built nuclear weapons — means it would be the most challenging case of nuclear disarmament in history.

這是最終目標(biāo)。這對(duì)區(qū)域力量的平衡、以及防止核擴(kuò)散的全球努力至關(guān)重要。但朝鮮核計(jì)劃的巨大規(guī)模，以及朝鮮已經(jīng)測(cè)試和制造了核武器的事實(shí)都意味著，這將是歷史上最具挑戰(zhàn)性的核裁軍案例。

Mr. Kim has committed to the “denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula,” but the phrase means different things in Pyongyang and Washington. The United States wants North Korea to give up its weapons, nuclear material and production facilities on an accelerated timeline under the eye of inspectors, but the North favors a more protracted process, with concessions by the United States up front.

雖然金正恩一直致力于實(shí)現(xiàn)“朝鮮半島無(wú)核化”，但無(wú)核化這個(gè)詞在平壤和華盛頓有不同的意思。美國(guó)希望朝鮮在核查人員的監(jiān)督下，以越來(lái)越短的時(shí)間間隔完成放棄核武器、核材料和生產(chǎn)設(shè)施的步驟，但朝鮮傾向于一個(gè)更曠日持久的過(guò)程，要美國(guó)先做出讓步。

2. Stability

2. 穩(wěn)定

North Korea rattled the region last year with its sixth underground nuclear explosion — of a possible hydrogen bomb — and 24 missile tests, including of a new intercontinental ballistic missile capable of hitting all of the United States. It also has a history of provocative military actions, including the shelling of a South Korean island and the suspected sinking of a South Korean naval vessel in 2010.

朝鮮去年制造區(qū)域緊張局勢(shì)，進(jìn)行了第六次地下核爆炸(可能是氫彈)，并進(jìn)行了24次導(dǎo)彈試驗(yàn)，其中包括一枚能夠打擊美國(guó)所有地方的新型洲際彈道導(dǎo)彈。朝鮮也有采取挑釁性軍事行動(dòng)的歷史，包括炮擊一個(gè)韓國(guó)島嶼、以及涉嫌在2010年擊沉了一艘韓國(guó)軍艦。

But Mr. Kim said in April that the North no longer needed to test nuclear weapons or long-range missiles. If Mr. Trump persuades him to extend the moratorium, that would ease tensions while also slowing the development of his arsenal.

但金正恩今年4月表示，朝鮮不再需要測(cè)試核武器或遠(yuǎn)程導(dǎo)彈。如果特朗普說(shuō)服金正恩延長(zhǎng)暫停令的話，那將會(huì)緩解緊張局勢(shì)，同時(shí)也會(huì)延緩朝鮮的武器發(fā)展。

3. Reduce threat to allies

3. 減少對(duì)盟友的威脅

Mr. Trump has shown a disregard for America’s traditional alliances around the world, but the United States is bound by treaty to defend both South Korea and Japan. Reducing the threat posed by North Korea would make it less likely for America to be drawn into a conflict in Asia.

雖然特朗普漠視美國(guó)在世界各地的傳統(tǒng)盟友，但美國(guó)有保護(hù)韓國(guó)和日本的條約義務(wù)。減少朝鮮制造的威脅將會(huì)讓美國(guó)卷入亞洲沖突的可能性降低。

Japan in particular is worried that even if North Korea gives up its nuclear arsenal and its ICBMs, it would still have shorter-range missiles as well as chemical and biological weapons. “You can say you’ve protected Americans,” said Daniel Sneider, a scholar at Stanford University. “Of course, you’ve left Japanese and Koreans and 80,000 American troops plus their dependents at risk.”

日本尤其擔(dān)心的是，即使朝鮮放棄其核武庫(kù)和洲際彈道導(dǎo)彈，它仍將擁有短程導(dǎo)彈、以及化學(xué)和生物武器。“你可以說(shuō)你保護(hù)了美國(guó)人，”斯坦福大學(xué)學(xué)者丹尼爾·斯奈德(Daniel Sneider)說(shuō)。“那當(dāng)然，但你讓日本人、韓國(guó)人、8萬(wàn)名美軍士兵以及家屬處于危險(xiǎn)之中。”

‘What We Both Want’

‘我們都想要的’

This is where there is room for a deal to emerge. Nixon noted that China and the United States both wanted to reduce the risk of a conflict, and that both favored a more stable Asia and a restraint on the Soviet Union.

這是能做成交易的空間。尼克松注意到，中國(guó)和美國(guó)都希望減少發(fā)生沖突的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，都贊成有一個(gè)更穩(wěn)定的亞洲，都想限制蘇聯(lián)的擴(kuò)張。

Mr. Trump might find common ground with Mr. Kim in these areas:

特朗普可能會(huì)在下列領(lǐng)域與金正恩找到共同點(diǎn)：

1. A new relationship

1. 一種新關(guān)系

Both men have expressed frustration at the lack of progress in previous negotiations and may be interested in a game-changing breakthrough that redefines the relationship between the two nations.

他兩人都對(duì)以前的談判沒(méi)有進(jìn)展表示不滿，他們可能對(duì)重新定義兩國(guó)關(guān)系的一個(gè)改變游戲規(guī)則的突破感興趣。

“If you just look at it as, ‘Give up your stuff,’ that framework is why we’ve been banging our head against the wall for so long,” said John Delury, a North Korea scholar at Yonsei University in Seoul. “If we say we need to fundamentally change the relationship, then you have a framework where there can be real progress.”

“如果只從‘你要放棄你的東西’這個(gè)角度考慮問(wèn)題，那種框架是為什么我們這么長(zhǎng)時(shí)間以來(lái)一直毫無(wú)進(jìn)展的原因，”首爾延世大學(xué)(Yonsei University)的朝鮮問(wèn)題學(xué)者魯樂(lè)漢(John Delury)說(shuō)，“如果我們說(shuō)，我們需要從根本上改變兩國(guó)關(guān)系，那就有了一個(gè)能夠取得真正進(jìn)展的框架。”

2. Reduce danger of confrontation and conflict 2. 減少對(duì)抗和沖突的危險(xiǎn)

Mr. Trump threatened to unleash “fire and fury” on North Korea last year, and a North Korean official warned of a “nuclear-to-nuclear showdown” just a few weeks ago.

特朗普去年曾威脅要向朝鮮發(fā)出“炮火與怒火”，就在幾周前，一名朝鮮官員還做出了“核武器與核武器決戰(zhàn)”的警告。

But a war would mean devastating casualties, including of American troops in South Korea, and American cities would also be at risk of suffering a nuclear strike because of the North’s recent advances. For Mr. Kim, a war would almost certainly result in the end of his rule and the destruction of his country.

但戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)將會(huì)意味著對(duì)包括駐韓美軍在內(nèi)的毀滅性傷亡，而且，由于朝鮮最近取得的進(jìn)展，也意味著美國(guó)城市將會(huì)面臨遭受核打擊的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。對(duì)金正恩來(lái)說(shuō)，戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)幾乎肯定會(huì)導(dǎo)致他本人統(tǒng)治的終結(jié)和他的國(guó)家的毀滅。

3. Make our countries — and our leadership — great again

3. 讓我們的國(guó)家——以及我們的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)力——恢復(fù)偉大光榮

Mr. Trump and Mr. Kim are both looking for political victories that will help them at home.

特朗普和金正恩都在尋找對(duì)自己在國(guó)內(nèi)有幫助的政治勝利。

“The imagery of Kim and Trump holding hands, embracing and declaring an end to the Korean War, is probably something they both individually want,” said Laura Rosenberger, a senior fellow and director of the Washington-based Alliance for Securing Democracy.

“金正恩和特朗普握手、擁抱，宣布朝鮮戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)結(jié)束的畫(huà)面，可能是他們各自都想要的東西，”勞拉·羅森伯格(Laura Rosenberger)說(shuō)，她是總部位于華盛頓的保衛(wèi)民主聯(lián)盟(Alliance for Securing Democracy)高級(jí)研究員兼主管。

4. More independence from China (?)

4. 更獨(dú)立于中國(guó)(?)

North Korea once enjoyed two sponsors, China and the Soviet Union. But China has been its main economic benefactor since the Soviet collapse, accounting for more than 90 percent of foreign trade. In recent years, Beijing has also helped keep the North afloat by blocking or resisting tighter sanctions against it.

朝鮮曾經(jīng)有過(guò)兩個(gè)資助者：中國(guó)和蘇聯(lián)。但自蘇聯(lián)解體以來(lái)，中國(guó)一直是朝鮮的主要經(jīng)濟(jì)援助國(guó)，朝鮮對(duì)外貿(mào)易的90%以上來(lái)自中國(guó)。近年來(lái)，北京還通過(guò)阻止或抵制對(duì)朝鮮實(shí)施更嚴(yán)厲的制裁，幫助朝鮮渡過(guò)難關(guān)。

There is evidence, though, that suggests Mr. Kim is worried about growing too dependent on China.

不過(guò)，有證據(jù)表明，金正恩擔(dān)心過(guò)于依賴中國(guó)。

As the United States and China compete for influence in Asia, any shift by North Korea away from Beijing might work to America’s advantage.

隨著美國(guó)和中國(guó)在亞洲爭(zhēng)奪影響力，朝鮮的任何偏離北京的轉(zhuǎn)移都可能對(duì)美國(guó)有利。

Henry Kissinger and other advisers tried to give Nixon advice on how to treat Mao before their summit meeting. In James Mann’s book “About Face: A History of America’s Curious Relationship With China, From Nixon to Clinton,” he reported that Nixon wrote:

亨利·基辛格和其他顧問(wèn)試圖在尼克松和毛澤東舉行峰會(huì)前給尼克松出主意，告訴他如何對(duì)待毛澤東。孟捷慕(James Mann)在《臉面：從尼克松到克林頓的微妙中美關(guān)系史》(About Face: A History of America’s Curious Relationship With China, From Nixon to Clinton)一書(shū)中紀(jì)錄了尼克松寫(xiě)下的東西：

Treat him (as Emperor)

把他(當(dāng)皇帝)對(duì)待

1. Don’t quarrell (sic)

2. Don’t praise him (too much)

3. Praise the people — art, ancient.

4. Praise poems.

5. Love of country.

1. 不爭(zhēng)吵

2. 不(過(guò)多地)稱贊他

3. 稱贊人民——藝術(shù)，古代的。

4. 稱贊詩(shī)詞。

5. 熱愛(ài)國(guó)家。

Mr. Trump might consider these suggestions:

特朗普可以考慮下列建議：

1. Treat him as a statesman.

2. Emphasize mutual respect.

3. Listen.

4. Praise friendship with Dennis Rodman (and maybe suggest a burger in Singapore?).

5. Don’t talk about Libya.

1. 把他當(dāng)政治家對(duì)待。

2. 強(qiáng)調(diào)相互尊重。

3. 聽(tīng)聽(tīng)他的說(shuō)法。

4. 贊揚(yáng)與丹尼斯·羅德曼(Dennis Rodman)的友誼(也許建議在新加坡吃頓漢堡?)。

5. 不談利比亞。

Some have urged Mr. Trump to raise North Korea’s abysmal human rights record, which he highlighted during his State of the Union address in January. But few expect him to spend much if any time on the subject.

一些人已敦促特朗普提出朝鮮糟糕的人權(quán)紀(jì)錄問(wèn)題，他本人在今年1月的國(guó)情咨文里也強(qiáng)調(diào)了這點(diǎn)。但幾乎沒(méi)有幾個(gè)人認(rèn)為他會(huì)在這個(gè)問(wèn)題上花太多時(shí)間。