越南能在中美貿易戰(zhàn)中幸免于難嗎？

When elephants fight, the ants perish: The Khmer proverb captures the sense of peril in the escalating trade war between the United States and China. The world’s two superpowers have locked tusks over tariffs, and the rest of the world — especially Asia — seems in danger of being trampled. As the trade war heads into its third month, with the United States set to impose a new tranche of $200 billion in tariffs this fall, expanding the conflict fourfold, one truth is clearer than ever: In a globalized economy, nothing exists in isolation. There is no such thing as a trade war of surgical strikes, in which tariffs hit their targets and leave everything around them unscathed. In its attempt to punish China for unfair trade practices and to reduce a $375 billion trade deficit, the Trump administration is also inflicting harm on some of America’s allies in Asia — forcing them, like ants under the elephants’ feet, to scramble in search of escape.

大象打架，螞蟻遭殃：這句高棉諺語可以準確地形容不斷升級的美中貿易戰(zhàn)的危機感。世界上兩個超級大國在關稅問題上像兩只大象一樣纏斗，而世界其他地區(qū)，尤其是亞洲，似乎面臨被踩傷的危險。隨著貿易戰(zhàn)進入第三個月，美國將在今年秋季再對2000億美元商品加征關稅，將沖突擴大三倍。一個比以往任何時候都清晰的事實是：在全球化的經濟中，沒有什么是孤立存在的。在貿易戰(zhàn)中，不存在外科手術式的打擊;參戰(zhàn)雙方想讓關稅只擊中目標，而他們周圍的一切都毫發(fā)無損是不可能的。為了懲罰中國不公平的貿易操作、減少3750億美元的貿易逆差，特朗普政府也在對美國在亞洲的一些盟友造成傷害——迫使他們像大象腳下的螞蟻一樣，爭先恐后地尋求逃脫。

Consider the predicament of Vietnam. China and the United States, which each have their own violent histories in Vietnam, are now that country’s most important trading partners. Together, the giants gobbled up roughly 35 percent of Vietnam’s exports last year, furthering its transformation from sleepy purveyor of rice and coffee to manufacturing hub. When the trade war broke out, so did the ominous headlines in Hanoi. A rapid devaluation of the Chinese yuan sparked a brief run on Vietnam’s currency and a drop in its stock market. Rumors spread about an influx of cheap Chinese consumer goods and the threat of American protectionism spreading in ways that would affect Vietnam’s vital exports. And there was a tangible concern: Nearly $5 billion of Vietnamese exports are part of China’s value-added supply chain, meaning they may feel the impact of being exposed to punitive American tariffs.

想想越南的困境。中國和美國在越南都有自己的暴力歷史，現(xiàn)在都是越南最重要的貿易伙伴。去年，兩個大國總共吃下了越南約35%的出口，推動了越南從一個不甚活躍的大米和咖啡供應國向制造業(yè)中心的轉變。當貿易戰(zhàn)爆發(fā)時，河內也出現(xiàn)了不祥的新聞標題。人民幣迅速貶值引發(fā)了越南貨幣短暫的拋售，并導致越南股市下跌。流言紛紛傳出：中國廉價消費品可能大量涌入;美國保護主義蔓延可能會影響和威脅到越南的重要出口。另外，還有一個切實的擔憂：將近50億美元的越南出口是中國增值供應鏈的一部分，這意味著這些出口商可能會受到美國懲罰性關稅的影響。

Soon another sort of reaction began taking place. Driven by the dangers of the trade war, many foreign companies with stakes in China — those ants underfoot — have started shifting production away from China to Southeast Asia. One sign of this development was on display in mid-July, when a group of visitors showed up on Vietnam’s northern coast near Ha Long Bay. The men in white shirts and dark ties were not tourists. They represented 72 Japanese businesses, in industries ranging from textiles to electronics, and they were looking for economic refuge. “Many of these Japanese firms have been operating in China,” Nguyen Duc Tiep, an official from the local-investment promotion center, told a Vietnamese magazine. “They want to expand their investment markets out of China to shun risks caused by the nation’s rising production costs and by the U.S.-China trade war, which is making it hard for Japanese firms to export their products to the U.S. from China.”

很快，另一種反應開始發(fā)生。在貿易戰(zhàn)的危險驅使下，許多在中國持有股份的外國公司——那些大象腳下的螞蟻——開始將生產從中國轉移到東南亞。這一發(fā)展趨勢的跡象之一是7月中旬，一群訪客出現(xiàn)在越南北部海岸下龍灣(Halong Bay)附近。穿白襯衫打黑領帶的男子們不是游客。他們代表了從紡織到電子等行業(yè)的72家日本企業(yè)，正在尋求經濟庇護。“這些日本公司中有很多在中國運營，”當地投資促進中心的官員阮德捷(Nguyen Duc Tiep，音)告訴一家越南雜志，“他們希望將投資市場擴大到中國以外，以規(guī)避中國生產成本上升和美中貿易戰(zhàn)造成的風險。貿易戰(zhàn)使得日本公司很難從中國向美國出口產品。”

The Japanese businessmen may be among the trade war’s first economic victims. But the shift of manufacturing away from China is not a new phenomenon. Over the past few years, as wages in Chinese factories have risen sharply, many companies, foreign and Chinese alike, have begun moving at least some of their operations to Southeast Asia to take advantage of lower production costs. In Vietnam, where wages are barely a third of those in China, Adidas now makes twice as many shoes as it does in China, and Intel and Samsung Electronics have made billion-dollar investments there. The country’s export-led growth depends on attracting foreign investment, and now American and Chinese policies may be hastening its arrival. “For many companies, the trade conflict is a catalyst to explore changes they hadn’t contemplated before,” says Jon Cowley, a tax-and-trade partner at the law firm Baker McKenzie in Hong Kong. “For others, it’s an accelerant to a process they’d already started. The trade conflict is just pushing them over the finish line.”

日本商人可能是這場貿易戰(zhàn)的第一批經濟受害者。但是，把制造業(yè)從中國轉移出來并不是一個新現(xiàn)象。在過去幾年中，隨著中國工廠的工資大幅增長，包括外企和中國公司在內的許多企業(yè)都已開始把它們的至少一部分業(yè)務轉移到東南亞，以利用那里低廉的生產成本。在工資幾乎不及中國三分之一的越南，阿迪達斯目前在那里生產的運動鞋是其在中國生產的兩倍，英特爾和三星電子也已在南亞投資了數十億美元。越南的出口導向型增長依賴于吸引外國投資，現(xiàn)在美國和中國的政策也許正在加速投資的到來。“對很多公司來說，中美貿易沖突是一個催化劑，推動它們探索以前未曾考慮過的變化，”香港律所貝克·麥堅時(Baker McKenzie)的稅收與貿易合伙人喬恩·考利(Jon Cowley)說。“對其他人來說，這是一個加速他們已經開始的進程的東西。中美貿易沖突只是正在推動他們越過終點線。”

It is still early in the trade war, only two months in, so many of these corporate moves are just taking shape. Still, the race is on to secure excess manufacturing capacity all around the region — in Thailand, Indonesia and elsewhere. In late July, Delta Electronics, a Taiwanese producer of Apple power components, approved a $2.14 billion buyout of its Thai affiliate to cope with the growing trade risks. Also this summer, Hong Kong’s Techtronic Industries (T.T.I.), the maker of Hoover vacuum cleaners and Milwaukee power tools, opened a new plant in Vietnam and another, its sixth, in the United States. Some 76 percent of T.T.I.’s revenue comes from North America. “We have always said we won’t want all our eggs in one basket,” the company’s chief executive, Joseph Galli, said in August, stressing the importance of “a flexible supply chain.”

貿易戰(zhàn)仍處于初期，開戰(zhàn)才兩個月，所以，這些企業(yè)做法中的許多才剛有模樣。盡管如此，為確保在包括泰國、印度尼西亞和其他地方的整個區(qū)域有更多制造能力的競爭已經開始。7月下旬，蘋果電源元件的臺資生產商臺達電子(Delta Electronics)批準了以21.4億美元收購其泰國子公司的交易，以應對日益增長的貿易風險。同樣在今年夏天，生產胡佛(Hoover)吸塵器和密爾沃基(Milwaukee)電動工具的香港制造商創(chuàng)科實業(yè)(T.T.I.)在越南建了一個新工廠，并在美國建了其第六個工廠。創(chuàng)科實業(yè)大約76%的營收來自北美。“我們一直都在說，我們不希望把所有的雞蛋放在一個籃子里，”公司首席執(zhí)行官約瑟夫·蓋里(Joseph Galli)今年8月在強調“靈活供應鏈”的重要性時說。

Supply chains, innocuous as they sound, are a locus of collateral pain in this trade war. The American exports that China is hitting with retaliatory tariffs are mostly simple goods sourced close to home: pork, soybeans, whiskey. But China’s exports to the United States, especially in high-tech, are complex products assembled in China from a staggering array of foreign components and raw materials. A “Made in China” laptop shipped to America, for example, may have a South Korean screen, a Japanese hard drive and a memory chip from Taiwan. A tariff hurts every part of this international supply chain. Asia’s most advanced economies, including Japan, South Korea and Taiwan, are so globalized that they can easily get caught in this protectionist crossfire.

供應鏈聽起來不冒犯任何人，但這場貿易戰(zhàn)的附帶痛苦正確切地發(fā)生在供應鏈上。中國以報復性關稅打擊的美國出口產品大多是在美國國內生產的簡單商品：豬肉、大豆、威士忌。但是中國對美國的出口，特別是高技術產品，是在中國組裝的復雜產品，用于組裝這些產品的外國零部件和原材料多得驚人。例如，一臺運往美國的“中國制造”筆記本電腦里可能有一個韓國屏幕、一個日本硬盤和一個來自臺灣的內存芯片。關稅傷害這個國際供應鏈中的每一部分。包括日本、韓國和臺灣在內的亞洲最先進的經濟體都高度全球化，以至于它們很容易在這場保護主義戰(zhàn)火中中槍。

Taiwan may stand to lose the most. It supplies 18 percent of China’s total imports of intermediate goods, or nearly 14 percent of Taiwan’s gross domestic product, according to the Stimson Center in Washington. As Tsai Ming-fang, an economist at Taipei’s Tamkang University, told Bloomberg: “Trump’s tariffs are giving Taiwanese companies further incentives to move to Southeast Asia.”

臺灣可能會承受最大的損失。根據華盛頓的史汀生中心(Stimson Center)的數據，臺灣提供了中國全部進口中間商品的18%，這種出口占臺灣國內生產總值的14%。正如臺北淡江大學經濟學家蔡明芳對彭博社(Bloomberg)所說：“特朗普的關稅正在給臺灣公司更多搬往東南亞的動力。”

The dust kicked up by the trade war obscures the fact that Asia is the world’s most dynamic trading region. According to the World Trade Organization, Asia in 2017 had the world’s fastest growth in trade volume for both imports and exports, 9.6 percent and 6.7 percent, respectively. Eighteen months ago, the leaders of Vietnam and 10 other Pacific Rim nations believed the economic outlook would be enhanced even further by the creation of the Trans-Pacific Partnership. The agreement, which included the United States and Japan but not China, also offered the chance to push back, as a group, against Beijing’s unfair trade practices like intellectual-property theft and forcing companies that do business in China to share their technology.

貿易戰(zhàn)掀起的塵埃掩蓋了這樣一個事實：亞洲是全球最具活力的貿易區(qū)。根據世界貿易組織的數據，2017年，亞洲的進出口貿易總額的增長速度在全球最高，分別為9.6%和6.7%。18個月前，越南和其他10個環(huán)太平洋國家的領導人都以為，跨太平洋伙伴關系協(xié)定(Trans-Pacific Partnership，簡稱TPP)的簽署將進一步提升區(qū)域經濟前景。針對北京不公平的貿易做法(比如盜取知識產權，以及迫使在中國做生意的外國公司分享技術等)，包括美國和日本但不包括中國的TPP，也會給作為一個集體的協(xié)定國提供反擊的機會。

President Trump rejected T.P.P. out of hand. Now, with diminished influence in the region, the United States wages its trade war alone, leaving many of its erstwhile Asian partners, and many American companies, too, stuck in the middle, seeking the safest way out.

特朗普總統(tǒng)不假思索地拒絕了TPP。如今，隨著美國在亞太地區(qū)的影響力減弱，美國又獨自發(fā)動了貿易戰(zhàn)，許多昔日的亞洲伙伴、以及許多美國企業(yè)都被夾在了中間，它們都在尋找最安全的出路。

To offset the conflict’s negative impact, Beijing has slashed tariffs to Asian countries, a reminder, it seems, that China will remain the lone superpower in Asia long after the trade war is over. This appeal, however, may not stop the flow of manufacturers out of China to Southeast Asia. The American shoe-and-accessory maker Steve Madden, for example, is shifting its handbag production from China to Cambodia — 15 percent this year, 30 percent in 2019. (A U.S. Fashion Industry Association study released in July showed that two-thirds of all textile companies are expected to lower production in China over the next two years, citing United States trade protectionism as the top challenge.) Moving production to a new location is expensive and complicated. Given the mercurial man behind the trade war, and the chaotic churn of American politics, some executives are holding fast in hopes that it will all go away. But as new tariffs loom for another $200 billion worth of Chinese imports, with 6,031 products on its target list, the trade war no longer looks like a short-term crisis.

為了抵消貿易沖突的負面影響，中國政府大幅度降低了對亞洲國家的關稅。這似乎在提醒人們，待到貿易戰(zhàn)結束之后，中國在未來的很多年里，仍將是亞洲唯一的超級大國。然而，這種吸引力可能不足以阻止制造商從中國轉向東南亞。比如，美國鞋履及配飾制造商史蒂夫·馬登(Steve Madden)正將手袋的生產從中國轉移到柬埔寨，今年轉移15%，2019年再轉移30%。(美國時裝行業(yè)協(xié)會[U.S. Fashion Industry Association]7月份發(fā)布的一份研究報告顯示，三分之二的紡織企業(yè)預計將在未來兩年減少在中國的生產，這些企業(yè)認為美國的貿易保護主義是其面臨的最大挑戰(zhàn)。)將生產轉移到一個新的地方既昂貴又復雜。考慮到貿易戰(zhàn)推動者的喜怒無常，以及美國政治混亂的反反復復，一些高管正勉力支撐，希望這一切都會過去。但是，隨著即將對又一批價值2000億美元的中國進口商品(目標清單上總共有6031種產品)加征新關稅，貿易戰(zhàn)看起來不再像是一次短期危機。

As the battle escalates, there’s a worry that Chinese companies may shift more operations southward, too, using ‘’tariff-jumping” tactics to get their goods to the United States. The Vietnamese, at least, are vigilant against Chinese intrusions. Their antagonistic history with their northern neighbor — the millennium under Chinese imperialism, the bloody 1979 border war, the ongoing disputes over the South China Sea — has colored recent protests against Chinese businesses. It almost seems like karmic payback that Vietnam might benefit from China’s conflict with the United States, a country that, despite its own protracted war here, has become one of Vietnam’s strongest allies.

隨著戰(zhàn)斗的升級，人們擔心中國公司也會把更多的業(yè)務向南轉移，使用“關稅避讓”策略將貨物運往美國。至少越南人對中國人的進入保持警惕。越南與自己這個北方鄰國的敵對歷史——上千年的中華帝國統(tǒng)治，慘烈的1979年邊境戰(zhàn)爭，在南海持續(xù)不斷的爭端——影響了最近針對中國企業(yè)的抗議活動。越南可能從中美兩國的貿易沖突中獲益這一點，幾乎像是一種因果報應。美國雖然也與越南進行過曠日持久的戰(zhàn)爭，但如今已經成為越南最強大的盟友之一。

Nobody can predict all of the pain and permutations of the trade war. The Vietnamese government is cautious, even projecting negligible declines in growth over the next five years. Others are far more sanguine. In July, Standard Chartered raised its growth forecasts for Vietnam to 7 percent this year, based on the influx of foreign direct investment. In addition to attracting companies hedging their Chinese bets, Vietnam may also pull in American buyers eager to diversify their imports from outside China. “The consensus before was that T.P.P. would be the catalyst,” says Michael Kokalari, chief economist at the Vietnam-focused asset-management firm VinaCapital. “But the trade war could be the thing that really opens the floodgates.” In Vietnam, fighting elephants just might give the nimblest (or luckiest) ants a chance to thrive.

沒有人能預測貿易戰(zhàn)帶來的所有痛苦和轉變。越南政府持謹慎態(tài)度，甚至預測貿易戰(zhàn)對未來五年的經濟增長可能造成微不足道的下滑。其他人則樂觀得多。今年7月，渣打銀行(Standard Chartered)將越南今年的經濟增長預期上調至7%，理由是外國直接投資的流入。除了吸引企業(yè)來這里來對沖它們在中國的風險，越南還可能吸引來美國買家，這些買家正急于從中國以外的地方進口，以達到貨源的多樣化。“以前的共識是，TPP將是催化劑，”邁克爾·科卡拉里(Michael Kokalari)說，他是以越南為重點的資產管理公司VinaCapital的首席經濟師。“但貿易戰(zhàn)可能會真的打開閘門。在越南，打架的大象可能會給最靈活(或最幸運)的螞蟻一個茁壯成長的機會。