貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)是否會(huì)給中國(guó)金融科技造成傷害

隨著中美貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)的持續(xù)，這場(chǎng)沖突有可能讓工業(yè)蒙受損失的報(bào)導(dǎo)紛至沓來。許多專家認(rèn)為，貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)將對(duì)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)生嚴(yán)重負(fù)面影響，中國(guó)將面臨經(jīng)濟(jì)減速和高負(fù)債。因?yàn)槊绹?guó)加征對(duì)華關(guān)稅而成本上升的行業(yè)包括電子、化工和塑料，而中國(guó)的報(bào)復(fù)措施也會(huì)增加消費(fèi)者的支出，特別是在農(nóng)產(chǎn)品和鋼鐵產(chǎn)品方面。到目前為止，關(guān)稅還沒有指向任何服務(wù)行業(yè)，但這不意味著服務(wù)業(yè)會(huì)毫發(fā)無(wú)損。貿(mào)易沖突加劇對(duì)中國(guó)金融科技業(yè)有什么影響呢?

As the US-China trade war continues, reports of industries potentially damaged by the skirmish are rolling in. Many experts believe that the trade war will have a strongly negative effect on China's economy, which is facing an economic slowdown and high levels of debt. Industries that face higher costs due to US tariffs on China include the electronics, chemicals, and plastics industries. Chinese retaliation will raise costs for its consumers, especially in the areas of agriculture and steel products. So far, tariffs haven't been placed on any service sectors, but this doesn't mean that service sectors will go entirely unscathed. What might happen to the Chinese fintech industry as a result of the growing trade conflict?

中國(guó)的金融科技行業(yè)包括電子支付、消費(fèi)者及小企業(yè)貸款、網(wǎng)上理財(cái)、互聯(lián)網(wǎng)保險(xiǎn)等類別。該行業(yè)在很大程度上迎合中低層消費(fèi)者的需求，而中國(guó)政府希望他們購(gòu)買更多商品，彌補(bǔ)出口下滑和固定資產(chǎn)投資的下降。金融科技與中國(guó)的電子商務(wù)和互聯(lián)網(wǎng)相關(guān)產(chǎn)業(yè)一樣，正在以比其他產(chǎn)業(yè)更快的速度增長(zhǎng)，是重要的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)點(diǎn)。

China's fintech industry includes sectors like digital payments, consumer and small firm lending, online wealth management, and online insurance. The industry caters in large part to lower and middle class consumers that China's government is hoping will purchase more goods to make up for a declining export sector and waning fixed asset investment. The fintech industry, along with China's e-commerce and internet-related industries, is growing at a faster rate than the rest of the economy. Therefore, it is an important source of growth.

許多中國(guó)購(gòu)物者在網(wǎng)上購(gòu)買外國(guó)商品，因?yàn)檫@些商品的質(zhì)量更好。2017年，中國(guó)的在線跨境零售支出估計(jì)為1000億美元，中國(guó)的在線跨境銷售總額估計(jì)為1400億美元。由于出現(xiàn)額外費(fèi)用，網(wǎng)上買家和賣家在買賣被列入關(guān)稅清單的商品時(shí)將面臨更高的價(jià)格，這有可能導(dǎo)致買賣雙方的交易額下降，在外國(guó)電子零售市場(chǎng)上的電子支付交易減少。Paypal的一項(xiàng)調(diào)查發(fā)現(xiàn)，從美國(guó)購(gòu)買商品的時(shí)候，大多數(shù)中國(guó)消費(fèi)者對(duì)質(zhì)量更敏感，對(duì)價(jià)格卻不那么敏感。但這不意味著一旦發(fā)現(xiàn)可以從其他渠道購(gòu)買高質(zhì)量產(chǎn)品，他們不會(huì)轉(zhuǎn)向其他賣家，而這肯定會(huì)讓高科技產(chǎn)品銷售商的利益受損。

Many Chinese shoppers purchase foreign goods online due to their better quality. Chinese cross-border online retail spending was estimated at about $100 billion in 2017, and Chinese cross-border online sales in total were estimated to be $140 billion. Online sellers and shoppers buying or selling goods in the tariff categories will see costs go up as the additional fees are imposed. This is likely to result in reduced sales for both buyers and sellers, and therefore fewer digital payment transactions with regard to foreign e-tail (electronic retailing) markets. While a survey by Paypal found that most Chinese shoppers may be more quality-sensitive and less price-sensitive in buying goods from the US, this doesn't mean they won't look to other sellers if they can purchase quality products elsewhere. It will certainly harm sellers of high-tech products.

此外，貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)會(huì)給整個(gè)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)帶來沖擊。關(guān)稅成本的上升將加大中國(guó)保持經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)、減少企業(yè)債務(wù)的難度。這兩個(gè)因素，加上監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)推動(dòng)高水平債務(wù)去杠桿，有可能讓金融經(jīng)濟(jì)的流動(dòng)性減少。因此，我們預(yù)計(jì)貸款的提供會(huì)減少，而且不僅銀行業(yè)想必如此，貸款減少也會(huì)擴(kuò)大到在線貸款領(lǐng)域，后者可能會(huì)著手從正規(guī)金融機(jī)構(gòu)或其他個(gè)人及公司籌資。由于資金不足，可以提供給消費(fèi)者和小企業(yè)的貸款也會(huì)下降。所以該行業(yè)無(wú)疑會(huì)受到負(fù)面影響。

In addition, there will be knock-on effects throughout China's economy from the trade war. Increased costs from tariffs will contribute to China's struggle to maintain economic growth and reduce corporate debt. These two factors, coupled with a regulatory push to deleverage high levels of debt, are likely to reduce liquidity in the economy. As a result, we can expect available loans to decline. It seems highly plausible that this would extend not only to the banking sector, but also to the online lending sector, which may start to channel funds from formal financial institutions or from other individuals and firms. As there is less money to go around, there will be fewer loans available to consumers and small businesses. Undoubtedly, this will negatively impact the sector.

人們手中的資金少了，他們投入網(wǎng)上財(cái)富管理服務(wù)的錢就會(huì)更少。中國(guó)的網(wǎng)上財(cái)富管理服務(wù)允許用戶把他們的錢投向貨幣市場(chǎng)基金和組合基金。例如，阿里巴巴為網(wǎng)上購(gòu)物者提供余額寶服務(wù)，好讓他們把余錢投給一只貨幣市場(chǎng)基金;宜信公司的母基金則覆蓋多種資產(chǎn)類型。這些投資渠道越來越受歡迎，因?yàn)橹袊?guó)幾乎沒有其他穩(wěn)定、回報(bào)率高的投資場(chǎng)所。由于貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)的負(fù)面影響，可以用來進(jìn)行私人投資的資金或許會(huì)縮減。

As people have fewer funds, they are also likely to invest less through online wealth management services. China's online wealth management services allow users to invest in assets like money market funds and funds of funds. For example, Alibaba offers Yu'e Bao for online shoppers to invest some of their leftover cash in a money market fund, while Creditease offers a fund of funds covering a variety of asset categories. These investment outlets have become increasingly popular, since China has few other investment outlets with stable and strong returns. Due to the negative effect of the trade war, available funds for private investment may decline.

如果整體經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)放緩，互聯(lián)網(wǎng)保險(xiǎn)也有可能受影響。眾安保險(xiǎn)等在線保險(xiǎn)公司推出與網(wǎng)購(gòu)密切相關(guān)的產(chǎn)品，例如眾安的電商產(chǎn)品退貨保險(xiǎn)，以及通過攜程旅行網(wǎng)購(gòu)買的旅游保險(xiǎn)。由于電子商務(wù)受影響，眾安保險(xiǎn)這樣的公司也會(huì)受到波及。

Online insurance is also likely to be affected, if overall economic activity slows. Online insurance companies like Zhongan Insurance have created products that are closely tied to online purchases. For example, Zhongan offers insurance covering e-commerce product returns as well as travel insurance that can be purchased through Ctrip, a travel website. As e-commerce is affected, companies like Zhongan Insurance will also be affected.

盡管中國(guó)服務(wù)業(yè)在中美貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)中還沒有成為直接的征稅目標(biāo)，但由于與美國(guó)的跨境業(yè)務(wù)放緩、經(jīng)濟(jì)減速加劇以及信貸緊縮，金融科技服務(wù)也會(huì)受到不利影響。不過，中國(guó)政府已經(jīng)敏銳地覺察貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)的波及面，正努力幫助中國(guó)企業(yè)尋找采購(gòu)與銷售替代市場(chǎng)。這是一項(xiàng)艱巨的任務(wù)，因?yàn)殛P(guān)稅種類實(shí)在太多。與通過傳統(tǒng)方式買賣的商品一樣，中國(guó)電商最終也可能離開美國(guó)的產(chǎn)品和消費(fèi)者，轉(zhuǎn)向歐洲或亞洲市場(chǎng)。這個(gè)轉(zhuǎn)換過程將有助于中國(guó)的電子商務(wù)體系渡過難關(guān)，減輕與在線活動(dòng)密切相關(guān)的金融科技行業(yè)受到的不利影響。

Even though China's services industry is not yet directly subject to tariffs in the US-China trade war, fintech services are likely to be adversely impacted due to a slowdown in cross-border business with the US and a worsened economic slowdown and credit crunch. The government is acutely aware of the ramifications of the trade war, however, and is attempting to help Chinese firms find alternative markets to source from and sell to. This is a prodigious task, as the tariff categories are numerous. As with goods that are traded via traditional means, China's e-commerce sector may end up turning away from American products and consumers and toward European or Asian markets. This process of switching markets will help to buoy China's e-commerce regime and reduce the negative effects felt by the fintech industry, which closely complements online activity.

但從短期看，中美貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)的不利影響似乎難以避免。與中國(guó)許多其他行業(yè)一樣，金融科技很可能要經(jīng)受這場(chǎng)貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)的負(fù)面沖擊。

In the short run, however, it seems there is no escaping the unfavorable effects of the US-China trade war. It is highly likely that the fintech sector, like many other sectors in China, will be adversely impacted by the conflict.

作者：徐賽蘭(Sara Hsu)，紐約州立大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)助理教授