貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)升級，中國手中籌碼不足？

President Trump imposed tariffs in July on $34 billion in Chinese goods. China matched them dollar for dollar with its own.

特朗普總統(tǒng)在7月份開始對價值340億美元的中國商品加征關(guān)稅。中國對同等價值的美國商品加征了關(guān)稅。

Then he hit an additional $16 billion in goods in August. China matched that, too.

后來，特朗普在8月份又把價值160億美元的中國商品包括了進來。中國也做出了同等回應(yīng)。

Now, Mr. Trump has made his biggest move yet, announcing 10 percent tariffs starting in a week on $200 billion a year of Chinese goods. But this time, China can’t match them all — and that crystallizes a growing problem for Beijing.

現(xiàn)在，特朗普拿出了他迄今為止規(guī)模最大的舉措，宣布在一周內(nèi)開始對美國每年從中國進口的價值2000億美元的中國商品加征10%的關(guān)稅。但這次，中國無法做出完全對等的回應(yīng)，這突顯了北京面臨的一個日益嚴(yán)重的問題。

On Tuesday, Chinese officials responded to the president’s latest move by following through on an earlier threat to impose tariffs on $60 billion in American goods — nearly everything China buys from the United States.

周二，中國官員回應(yīng)了特朗普總統(tǒng)近期采取的行動，他們兌現(xiàn)之前的威脅，對價值600億美元的美國商品加征關(guān)稅——這幾乎是中國從美國購買的全部商品。

China’s responses have so far failed to thwart Mr. Trump’s trade offensive, and with the White House amping up the fight again, Chinese leaders aren’t sure how to respond, people briefed on economic policymaking discussions say.

中國的回應(yīng)迄今為止未能阻撓特朗普的貿(mào)易攻勢，據(jù)了解制定經(jīng)濟政策討論的人士說，隨著白宮再次加大打擊力度，中國領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人對如何回應(yīng)有些拿不準(zhǔn)。

Chinese officials “are generally confused,” said Raúl Hinojosa-Ojeda, a trade specialist at the University of California, Los Angeles, who has been traveling around China speaking with officials, businesspeople and workers.

中國的官員們“普遍有些迷茫”，美國加州大學(xué)洛杉磯分校的貿(mào)易專家勞爾·伊諾霍薩-奧赫達(Raul Hinojosa-Ojeda)說。

“They don’t know what to do,” he added. “They worry that the tit-for-tat model is playing into Trump’s hands.”

“他們不知道該怎么辦，”他還說。“他們擔(dān)心，針鋒相對的做法正中了特朗普的下懷。”

China doesn’t import nearly enough from the United States to target $200 billion in American goods — let alone the additional $267 billion in Chinese goods that Mr. Trump has threatened to tax.

中國從美國進口的商品遠遠達不到針對2000億美元的等價商品加征關(guān)稅的規(guī)模——更不用說特朗普進一步威脅征收關(guān)稅的2670億美元等價商品了。

But China’s leaders feel they can’t back down. They have presented the trade war as part of a broader effort by the United States to contain China’s rise.

但中國領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人覺得他們不能讓步。他們已把這場貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)作為美國遏制中國崛起的更廣泛努力的一部分。

Mr. Trump has said as much, and did so again at a news conference on Tuesday. “China has been taking advantage of the United States for a long time, and that’s not happening anymore,” he said.

特朗普在周二的新聞發(fā)布會上再次表示：“中國長期以來一直在占美國的便宜，這種情況不會再發(fā)生了。”他此前曾多次表達類似觀點。

The Chinese public could see any effort to soothe tensions as capitulation.

中國公眾可能會把任何緩和緊張局勢的舉措視為投降。

Lou Jiwei, who retired as finance minister in 2016 but is still the head of the country’s social security fund, suggested on Sunday that China could deliberately disrupt American companies’ supply chains by halting the export of crucial components mostly made in China. But Chinese trade experts dismiss that idea as impractical and not the government’s position.

2016年卸任中國財政部長、現(xiàn)在仍是中國社會保障基金負(fù)責(zé)人的樓繼偉在周日表示，中國可以通過停止出口大部分由中國制造的關(guān)鍵零部件，有意擾亂美國企業(yè)的供應(yīng)鏈。但中國的貿(mào)易專家們認(rèn)為這種想法不切實際，也不是政府的立場。

Chinese officials know what they don’t want to do. They have rejected one idea that would replace the matching tariffs with a more sophisticated system, said the people briefed on the discussions, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the fragility of the deliberations. That response — discussed in detail within the Commerce Ministry and other agencies — would have led to lower tariffs on American goods in dollar terms, which could be seen as a fig leaf to the White House.

中國官員知道他們不想做的是什么。據(jù)知情人士說，官員們已經(jīng)否決了用一個更復(fù)雜的系統(tǒng)來取代對同等價值商品加征關(guān)稅的方法，由于有關(guān)討論的敏感性，這些知情人士要求不具名。商務(wù)部和其他機構(gòu)曾在內(nèi)部對該想法進行過詳細的討論，這種回應(yīng)將會降低以美元計算的對美國商品征稅額，在白宮眼里這可能被視為一種遮羞布。

That approach would have recognized a potentially expensive new reality for Beijing: The tariffs may be here to stay. Mr. Trump is suffering from weak approval ratings and could lose influence in congressional elections in November. But while Democrats have opposed most of his agenda, many have supported his attacks on trade with China. Even if Mr. Trump leaves office in two years, there is little guarantee that his China trade policies will be changed.

這樣做會表明，北京承認(rèn)了一個可能代價高昂的新現(xiàn)實：關(guān)稅一時半不會取消。特朗普的支持率很低，可能會失去在今年11月的國會選舉中的影響力。雖然民主黨人反對特朗普的大部分議程，但許多人支持他在對華貿(mào)易上采取的攻勢。即使特朗普兩年后不連任，也很難保證繼任者將改變特朗普的對華貿(mào)易政策。

In Beijing, proponents of the new approach, which would scale down China’s tariffs in dollar terms to reflect the lopsided trade imbalance between the two countries, say Chinese leaders could still revisit the idea because it offers them a way to contain the damage and soothe tensions.

新思路會降低以美元計的中國關(guān)稅，以反映中美貿(mào)易的不平衡。在北京，新思路的支持者表示中國領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人仍可能會重新考慮這種做法，因為他們可以借此控制損失、緩和緊張局勢。

China’s leaders “don’t really want to engage in a dollar-for-dollar retaliation,” said Yu Yongding, a prominent economist at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. “Their purpose is to stop this trade war.”

中國領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人“不是真的想用一美元對一美元的方式進行報復(fù)”，中國社會科學(xué)院著名經(jīng)濟學(xué)家余永定說。“他們的目標(biāo)是停止這場貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)。”

China’s other options are limited.

中國沒有太多別的選擇。

It could punish American businesses that depend on China. Already, its antitrust officials have effectively killed the $44 billion effort by Qualcomm, the semiconductor company, to buy a Dutch chip maker. China has also pledged to buy soybeans from other countries, but replacing voluminous American supplies will be difficult.

中國可能會懲罰依賴中國的美國企業(yè)。中國的反壟斷官員實際上已經(jīng)阻止了半導(dǎo)體公司高通(Qualcomm)花440億美元收購一家荷蘭芯片制造商的努力。中國還承諾從其他國家購買大豆，但全面取代規(guī)模巨大的美國大豆供應(yīng)將很困難。

Other moves have already served as warnings, like delays at Chinese ports. Ford Motor’s Lincoln cars and other goods have sometimes been the subject of unusually lengthy customs inspections this summer, although the delays do not appear to have caused much financial harm.

其他比如中國港口拖時間的做法已經(jīng)起到了警告的作用。今年夏天，福特汽車公司的林肯轎車和其他產(chǎn)品有時會受到異常緩慢的海關(guān)檢查，盡管這些拖延似乎并未造成多少經(jīng)濟損失。

“It is certain that China will have other, invisible retaliation against the United States,” said Mei Xinyu, a researcher at the Commerce Ministry’s policy research and training academy.

“中國肯定會對美國采取其他的隱形報復(fù)，”商務(wù)部國際貿(mào)易經(jīng)濟合作研究院研究員梅新育說。

But more drastic moves, like closing factories or encouraging consumer boycotts of American goods, could eliminate Chinese jobs. They could also permanently damage China’s reputation as a place to do business and only accelerate corporate plans to look to other countries.

但采取比如關(guān)閉工廠、或鼓勵消費者抵制美國商品等更激烈的做法，可能會減少中國的就業(yè)崗位。這些做法也可能會永久性地?fù)p害中國作為經(jīng)商地的聲譽，并且只會加速企業(yè)將目光投向其他國家的打算。

“It’s difficult to build a reputation, and easy to harm a reputation,” Mr. Mei said.

“建立聲譽很困難，損壞聲譽很容易，”梅新育說。

China could also guide its currency to a weaker level against the dollar. It has already nudged the currency a bit lower, making Chinese goods cheaper in the United States and partly offsetting the tariffs. But a weaker currency would make China’s imports more expensive, raise the risk of inflation and lead to a potentially damaging flight of money out of the country. It could also provoke further American retaliation.

中國還可能把人民幣引導(dǎo)到與美元相比更弱的水平。中國已在逐漸壓低人民幣的價值，使中國商品在美國更便宜，并部分地抵消關(guān)稅的影響。但人民幣走軟將使中國進口商品的價格更高，增加通貨膨脹的風(fēng)險，并導(dǎo)致可能造成破壞性影響的資金外逃。讓人民幣貶值的做法也可能引發(fā)美國的進一步報復(fù)。

While the trade war has hit only a small part of the Chinese economy for now, the damage could add up. Higher tariffs on American goods raise the cost of essential imports like soybeans and microchips. China still derives a big chunk of growth from making smartphones, clothing, chemicals and a raft of other goods and selling them to Americans.

雖然貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)目前只對中國經(jīng)濟的一小部分造成了打擊，但這種損害可能會積少成多。對美國商品征收更高的關(guān)稅提高了大豆和微芯片等重要進口產(chǎn)品的成本。中國經(jīng)濟增長的一大部分仍靠制造智能手機、服裝、化學(xué)品和大量其他商品，然后將這些商品賣給美國人。

Already its currency and stock market have weakened as the trade war has intensified. China has taken steps to shore up its economy, but they could take months or years to kick in.

隨著貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)的加劇，中國的貨幣和股市已在走弱。中國已采取措施支撐經(jīng)濟，但這些措施可能需要數(shù)月或數(shù)年的時間才能見效。

China has offered small concessions to the United States, like lowering its tariffs on imported cars from everywhere to 15 percent, from 25 percent; the United States, however, charges 2.5 percent. China has also allowed foreign companies to own greater shares of Chinese insurers, banks, asset management companies and car factories.

中國已向美國做出了一些小小的讓步，比如降低了來自世界各地的進口汽車的關(guān)稅，從25%降至15%;但美國對進口汽車只收2.5%的關(guān)稅。中國還已允許外國企業(yè)在中國保險公司、銀行、資產(chǎn)管理公司和汽車廠中持有更多的股份。

The new plan that Chinese officials rejected in recent weeks could have been more warmly greeted by the White House.

中國官員在最近幾周里拒絕的這個新方案，本可能會受到白宮的更大歡迎。

Under that plan, the United States and China would each levy tariffs based on proportions of trade rather than dollar amounts, people familiar with the discussions said. Because the United States imports nearly four times as much from China as it exports, that would lead to tariffs at different values.

知情人士說，按照該方案，美國和中國將按同等比例的貿(mào)易額、而不是同等美元的貿(mào)易額來征收關(guān)稅。因為美國從中國的進口額幾乎是向中國的出口額的四倍，這將導(dǎo)致征收關(guān)稅的商品價值不等。

For example, the United States has already levied tariffs on $50 billion in Chinese goods, one-tenth of what it imports from China. Instead of matching that with tariffs on $50 billion in American-made goods, China would levy tariffs on one-tenth of such goods, totaling $13 billion to $15 billion, depending on the details.

比如，美國已對從中國進口商品的10%征收關(guān)稅，價值500億美元。如果中國對其從美國進口商品的10%，而不是500億美元的等值美國制造商品征收關(guān)稅的話，受關(guān)稅影響的美國商品額將在130億至150億美元之間，視具體情況而定。

Proponents of the plan say letting Washington impose more tariffs than Beijing would actually hurt the United States more because tariffs are ultimately paid by consumers and businesses in the countries that levy them.

支持該方案的人說，讓華盛頓比北京征收更多的關(guān)稅，實際上會對美國造成更大的傷害，因為關(guān)稅最終是由征收關(guān)稅國家的消費者和企業(yè)支付的。

“The United States wants to hurt China by imposing tariffs on Chinese exports,” Mr. Yu, the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences economist, wrote in a journal in July. “In the end, it may be the United States itself” that is hurt, he wrote.

“美國想通過對中國出口產(chǎn)品加征關(guān)稅打痛中國，”中國社會科學(xué)院經(jīng)濟學(xué)家余永定今年7月在雜志上發(fā)文章寫道。“到頭來，被打痛可能是美國自己。”

But other Chinese trade experts say tariffs on equal fractions of trade would be too big a compromise.

但也有一些中國貿(mào)易專家說，對同等比例的貿(mào)易額加征關(guān)稅將是一個太大的妥協(xié)。

“It’s unrealistic, it’s difficult in practice, it’s not doable, and it’s against basic trade rules,” said Mr. Mei, the Commerce Ministry researcher.

“這不現(xiàn)實，做起來有困難，不可行，而且違反了基本的貿(mào)易規(guī)則，”商務(wù)部的研究員梅新育說。