騰訊今年市值蒸發(fā)近4成，發(fā)生了什么？
隨著全球科技股下挫，騰訊承受著格外大痛苦 。
On Wednesday, United States technology stocks fell sharply. But even against that backdrop and a similar plight afflicting Chinese rivals, the Hong Kong-listed gaming giant Tencent stands apart. It has lost $230 billion of market value from its peak in January, which is magnified by fickle Chinese traders and its exposure to emerging markets.
周三，美國(guó)科技股暴跌。但即使是在這一背景下，且它的中國(guó)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手也存在類似困境，在香港上市的游戲巨頭騰訊還是有所不同。這家公司市值自一月達(dá)到最高點(diǎn)后，已經(jīng)蒸發(fā)2300億美元，情況因多變的中國(guó)交易者以及公司暴露于新興市場(chǎng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)而加劇。
Investors have wiped out about 40 percent of the tech titan’s market value so far this year: it is now worth $348 billion. That compares to the less than 30 percent declines suffered by its U.S.-listed Chinese rivals Alibaba and Baidu over the same period. Slowing earnings growth and an unforeseen regulatory crackdown on mobile games, Tencent’s core business, by the Chinese government triggered the slump. But it has since snowballed amid escalating U.S.-China trade tensions and concerns of a slowing economy in the People’s Republic.
迄今為止，投資者今年已經(jīng)抹去了這家科技巨頭約40%的市值：該公司如今價(jià)值3480億美元。同期在美國(guó)上市的中國(guó)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手阿里巴巴和百度股價(jià)下跌不到30%。營(yíng)收增長(zhǎng)放緩和中國(guó)政府對(duì)騰訊核心業(yè)務(wù)手游令人始料未及的監(jiān)管打壓是股價(jià)暴跌的誘因。但這一情況在美中貿(mào)易緊張關(guān)系不斷升級(jí)，外界對(duì)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)放緩的擔(dān)憂中像滾雪球般越滾越大。
Tencent’s listing location is one reason it is getting hit harder than other tech companies. Analysts at BNP Paribas believe that it’s currently the top-selling name on the Stock Connect scheme linking mainland exchanges to Hong Kong, which allows investors in China to trade the company’s shares. That means Tencent is exposed to flighty Chinese investors, who tend to be quicker than most to buy and sell, making the good times richer — and the bad times poorer.
騰訊的上市地點(diǎn)是該公司比其他科技公司受打擊更加嚴(yán)重的原因之一。法國(guó)巴黎銀行(BNP Paribas)的分析師認(rèn)為，目前在大陸與香港股市互聯(lián)互通機(jī)制中——該機(jī)制讓中國(guó)投資者得以交易公司的股票——騰訊的股票是被拋售最多的。這意味著騰訊要受到反復(fù)無常的中國(guó)投資者的影響，他們通常在買賣方面動(dòng)作格外快，這意味著好的時(shí)候會(huì)更好——糟的時(shí)候會(huì)更糟。
A capital flight is also playing a part. Tencent is the top company in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, with a 4.5 percent weighting. The index has slumped 14 percent this year, largely because of outflows from riskier markets as the U.S. Federal Reserve has tightened monetary policy. By contrast, Alibaba’s weighting in the index is 3.7 percent and Baidu’s only 1.2 percent.
資本外逃可能也是原因之一。騰訊是MSCI新興市場(chǎng)指數(shù)中排名最高的公司，權(quán)重為4.5%。該指數(shù)今年已經(jīng)暴跌14%，很大程度上是因?yàn)殡S著美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)收緊貨幣政策，資金從高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)市場(chǎng)撤出。與此形成對(duì)比的是，阿里巴巴在該指數(shù)中的權(quán)重為3.7%，百度僅為1.2%。
Tencent has responded to its decline with share buybacks. The company has been stepping up repurchases, spending $100 million since September, according to filings. But the amount it has bought — just 0.03 percent of its shares outstanding — is too small to make a real difference. Tencent shares still trade at almost 26 times forward earnings, according to Refinitiv data, but the premium is narrowing to its top rival Alibaba at 23 times.
騰訊以股份回購作為對(duì)股價(jià)下跌的回應(yīng)。這家公司加快了買回股份的腳步，根據(jù)報(bào)備文件顯示，騰訊自9月以來在這方面花了1億美元。但回購量還是太少——只有其流通在外股票的0.03%——無法產(chǎn)生真正意義上的影響。Refinitiv數(shù)據(jù)顯示，騰訊股份的遠(yuǎn)期市盈率仍達(dá)26倍，但與23倍的頭號(hào)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手阿里巴巴的溢價(jià)差距在縮小。
If that closes, Tencent will have one more thing to worry about.
如果這一差距消失，騰訊就又多了一件要擔(dān)心的事情。
