海平面上升速度，比估計得還要快

Sea levels are rising faster than scientists had predicted, according to a landmark UN report that laid bare the severe risk to coastal cities and low-lying islands from climate change and the parlousstate of the world’s oceans.

聯(lián)合國(UN)一份具有里程碑意義的報告顯示，海平面上升速度比科學(xué)家之前估計得還要快。這份報告揭示了氣候變化和世界海洋的危險狀況對沿海城市和低洼島嶼構(gòu)成的嚴(yán)重風(fēng)險。

The report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a gold standard of scientific research, outlined the threat to hundreds of millions of people from the acceleration in the rate at which sea levels are rising, caused by a combination of melting ice in polar regions such as Greenland and Antarctica and the expansion of the oceans as the water warms.

由聯(lián)合國政府間氣候變化專門委員會(IPCC)——科學(xué)研究的黃金標(biāo)準(zhǔn)——發(fā)布的這份報告，概述了在格陵蘭和南極洲等極地地區(qū)冰層融化、以及海水變暖導(dǎo)致海洋膨脹的共同作用下，海平面上升加速對數(shù)億人構(gòu)成的威脅。

The researchers warned that extreme floods, the likes of which have historically only occurred once per century, were likely to happen at least once per year by 2050 in many regions, especially the tropics, even if global warming is limited to 1.5C.

研究人員警告稱，即使全球升溫幅度被限制在1.5攝氏度以內(nèi)，但到2050年，許多地區(qū)，尤其是熱帶地區(qū)，每年可能至少發(fā)生一次以往百年一遇的極端洪水。

The findings come just days after the UN climate summit in New York, where teenage activist Greta Thunberg told the assembled heads of state: “If you choose to fail us, we will never forgive you”. Despite pledges from world leaders to cut greenhouse gas emissions, the levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere continue to rise.

就在此項調(diào)查結(jié)果公布的幾天前，青少年活動人士格雷塔•通貝里(Greta Thunberg)在紐約召開的聯(lián)合國氣候峰會上對與會各國元首表示：“如果你們選擇辜負(fù)我們，我們永遠(yuǎn)不會原諒你們。”盡管世界各國領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人承諾減少溫室氣體排放，但大氣中的二氧化碳水平仍在持續(xù)上升。

Nate Bindoff, of the University of Tasmania and one of the authors of the IPCC report, said: “Since 1993, the rate of warming of the global oceans has actually doubled — and the rate of warming is a contributor to the acceleration that we see in sea level rise.”

塔斯馬尼亞大學(xué)(University of Tasmania)的內(nèi)特•賓多夫(Nate Bindoff)是IPCC報告的作者之一。他表示：“自1993年以來，全球海洋變暖的速度實際上翻了一番——而這樣的升溫速度是我們看到的海平面上升加速的一個因素。”

The IPCC revised upwards its figures for the sea level rise, saying that by 2100 a rise of as much as 1.1m was likely under a business-as-usual scenario, where global emissions of carbon dioxide keep increasing. That is 10cm higher than its previous estimate. In a worst-case scenario, the report concluded, sea levels could rise by more than 5m by 2300.

IPCC向上修正了海平面上升的數(shù)據(jù)，稱在全球二氧化碳排放量持續(xù)增加的“一切照舊”情景下，到2100年，海平面可能上升高達(dá)1.1米。這比之前的估計高10厘米。該報告的結(jié)論是，在最糟糕情景下，到2300年，海平面上升幅度可能超過5米。

By 2100, oceans could be rising more than four times faster than today, the report said. It forecast 15mm of annual sea level rise by the end of the century, compared with 3.6mm of rise today, under a business-as-usual scenario.

該報告稱，到2100年，海平面的上升速度可能會達(dá)到目前的4倍多。該機構(gòu)預(yù)測，在“一切照舊”情景下，到本世紀(jì)末，海平面每年上升幅度將由目前的3.6毫米增加至15毫米。

However, Regine Hock of the University of Alaska, Fairbanks, one of the authors of the report, pointed out that current forecasts for 2100 did not include the possibility of collapsing Antarctic ice sheets. “If part of the Antarctic ice sheet collapse, this has the potential to rise that figure way beyond 1m by the end of the century,” said Professor Hock. “And there are indications that that instability is going on, it has started.”

然而，該報告的作者之一、阿拉斯加大學(xué)(University of Alaska)費爾班克斯分校的雷吉娜•霍克(Regine Hock)指出，目前對2100年的預(yù)測沒有包括南極冰蓋崩塌的可能性。“如果南極冰蓋的一部分崩塌，到本世紀(jì)末這一數(shù)字有可能遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超過1米，”霍克教授表示，“而目前有跡象表明，冰蓋已經(jīng)不太穩(wěn)定，這個過程已經(jīng)開始了。”

Hamish Pritchard, from the British Antarctic Survey and another report author, said: “Megacities and low lying pacific islands are under threat. This will displace a lot of people.” About 680m people around the world live in low-lying areas, and could be threatened by cyclonic winds, coastal erosion, flooding and waves.

報告的另一位作者、英國南極調(diào)查局(British Antarctic Survey)的哈米什•普里查德(Hamish Pritchard)表示：“大城市和低洼的太平洋島嶼面臨威脅。這將使很多人流離失所。”世界各地有約6.8億人生活在低洼地區(qū)。他們可能受到旋風(fēng)、海岸侵蝕、洪水和海浪的威脅。

Coastal flood damages were projected to increase by “two to three orders of magnitude by 2100 compared to today” if lawmakers failed to plan for rising sea levels, the report said. Coastal cities would be at “moderate to high” risk after 2050 if “transformative” plans were not put in place, while Arctic communities would be at risk in all scenarios.

該報告稱，如果立法者未能制定應(yīng)對海平面上升的計劃，預(yù)計到2100年，沿海洪水造成的損失將“比目前增加兩到三個數(shù)量級”。如果不實施“轉(zhuǎn)變型”計劃，2050年后沿海城市將面臨“中度至高度的”風(fēng)險，而北極社區(qū)在所有情景下都將面臨風(fēng)險。

“It is as bad as we thought it was,” said Phillip Williamson, a report author from the UK-based Natural Environment Research Council. “We might be able to survive now but some countries are already in trouble and it will get worse.”

“情況和我們之前想象的一樣糟，”報告作者、英國自然環(huán)境研究委員會(Natural Environment Research Council)的菲利普•威廉姆森(Phillip Williamson)說，“我們現(xiàn)在或許能夠生存下來，但有一些國家已經(jīng)陷入困境，且情況會越來越糟。”

The report, written by 104 authors and editors from 36 countries, also warned of “unprecedented conditions” in the ocean waters, which are becoming not only warmer but also more acidic.

這份報告由來自36個國家的104名作者和編輯撰寫。該報告還警告說，海水處于“前所未有的狀況”：不僅在變暖，而且酸性越來越大。

Changing marine habitats are likely to lead to the widespread loss of marine animal and plant species, as well as coral reefs, throughout this century. This will affect the livelihoods, income and food security of marine-dependent local and indigenous communities, the report said.

海洋棲息地的改變很可能導(dǎo)致海洋動植物物種以及珊瑚礁在本世紀(jì)持續(xù)大面積消失。報告稱，這將影響依賴海洋的當(dāng)?shù)丶霸∶裆鐓^(qū)的生計、收入和糧食安全。