流行病模型預(yù)測(cè)了美國(guó)巨大的死亡人數(shù)

流行病模型預(yù)測(cè)了美國(guó)巨大的死亡人數(shù)

At a White House briefing on Tuesday, Dr. Deborah Birx, the coronavirus response coordinator, laid out a grim vision of the future.

在周二的白宮新聞發(fā)布會(huì)上，冠狀病毒應(yīng)對(duì)協(xié)調(diào)員黛博拉·比爾克斯博士描繪了未來(lái)的嚴(yán)峻前景。

The best computer models, she said, predict that between 100.000 and 200.000 Americans will die from COVID-19 during the coming months, even if the country continues the strict social distancing measures that most states have adopted. Relaxing those restrictions would send the toll much higher.

她說(shuō)，最好的計(jì)算機(jī)模型預(yù)測(cè)，在未來(lái)幾個(gè)月里，將有10萬(wàn)到20萬(wàn)美國(guó)人死于COVID-19.即使美國(guó)繼續(xù)執(zhí)行大多數(shù)州已經(jīng)采取的嚴(yán)格的社會(huì)隔離措施。放松這些限制將使死亡人數(shù)大幅上升。

It would be a shocking escalation in the epidemic's death toll. So far, the epidemic has claimed fewer than 4.000 lives in the United States, and roughly 40.000 worldwide.

這將是流行病死亡人數(shù)的一個(gè)令人震驚的升級(jí)。到目前為止，這種流行病已經(jīng)在美國(guó)奪去了不到4000人的生命，在全世界奪去了大約40000人的生命。

Yet when Birx was pressed about whether this dark future is inevitable, or can still be avoided, she equivocated. "We really believe and hope every day that we can do a lot better than that," she said.

然而，當(dāng)比爾克斯被問(wèn)及這個(gè)黑暗的未來(lái)是否是不可避免的，還是仍然可以避免的時(shí)候，她含糊其辭。她說(shuō):“我們每天都相信并希望我們能做得更好。”

The models – in particular, a model developed by Chris Murray, at the University of Washington – assume that the future of the epidemic will play out much like the recent past, Birx said. "If you ask Chris Murray, he would say he's using the information coming out of New York and New Jersey and applying that to potentially other states having the same outcomes."

比爾克斯說(shuō)，這些模型——特別是由華盛頓大學(xué)的克里斯·默里開(kāi)發(fā)的一個(gè)模型——假設(shè)流行病的未來(lái)將與最近的過(guò)去非常相似。”如果你問(wèn)克里斯·默里，他會(huì)說(shuō)他正在利用來(lái)自紐約和新澤西州的信息，并將其應(yīng)用到其他可能有相同結(jié)果的州。”

Birx is hoping that New York and New Jersey turn out to be unusual. Some states, like Washington and California, have managed to avoid the spikes in coronavirus infections that overwhelmed New York City. If other states manage to duplicate that experience, it would change the model's assumptions about the epidemic's trajectory.

比爾克斯希望紐約和新澤西的情況不一樣。一些州，如華盛頓和加利福尼亞州，已經(jīng)成功地避免了像在紐約的冠狀病毒感染的激增，這使紐約市不堪重負(fù)。如果其他國(guó)家能夠復(fù)制這種經(jīng)驗(yàn)，它將改變模型對(duì)流行病軌跡的假設(shè)。

Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, also says he's hoping for fewer deaths – but people should prepare for what the models now predict. "Is it going to be that much? I hope not. But being realistic, we need to prepare ourselves, that that is a possibility," he said.

美國(guó)國(guó)家過(guò)敏和傳染病研究所所長(zhǎng)安東尼·福奇博士也表示，他希望死亡人數(shù)能夠減少，但是人們應(yīng)該對(duì)模型所預(yù)測(cè)的情況有所準(zhǔn)備。“會(huì)有那么多嗎?”我希望不是這樣。但現(xiàn)實(shí)一點(diǎn)，我們需要做好準(zhǔn)備，這是可能的。”