迪拜：摩天大樓林立的危機(jī)之地

2008年10月金融危機(jī)在全球大部分地區(qū)肆虐之際，迪拜最大國(guó)有開(kāi)發(fā)商的首席執(zhí)行長(zhǎng)卻公布了其最新的超級(jí)項(xiàng)目：一項(xiàng)耗資380億美元、包括一座近三分之二英里高摩天大樓的建筑開(kāi)發(fā)項(xiàng)目。

As financial crisis roiled much of the world in October 2008, the head of Dubai's biggest state-owned developer unveiled his latest megaproject: a billion development that would include a tower nearly two-thirds of a mile tall.

當(dāng)時(shí)Nakheel的首席執(zhí)行長(zhǎng)奧唐納(Chris O'Donnell)在新聞發(fā)布會(huì)上說(shuō)，我可以肯定，你們大部分人都在問(wèn)，我們?yōu)槭裁匆瞥鲞@個(gè)項(xiàng)目，如果你們沒(méi)有疑問(wèn)的話，就有問(wèn)題了。他對(duì)與會(huì)者說(shuō)，盡管在修建這座大樓的年月里經(jīng)濟(jì)會(huì)起起落落，需求會(huì)繼續(xù)大于供應(yīng)。

'I'm sure most of you are asking why we're launching this, and you'd be mad not to question it,' said the executive, Chris O'Donnell, at a news conference. Though there would be economic ups and downs in the years needed to build the tower, he told listeners, demand would continue to outstrip supply.

他說(shuō)，市場(chǎng)基本面太強(qiáng)勁了，不會(huì)發(fā)生崩潰。

'The fundamentals in the market are too strong,' he said. 'There won't be a crash.'

之后，迪拜的住宅房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格暴跌了近50%。開(kāi)發(fā)商大幅裁員，取消開(kāi)發(fā)項(xiàng)目。這座摩天大樓的破土動(dòng)工儀式很早以前就宣布擱置了。長(zhǎng)達(dá)一年的支出削減上周達(dá)到高潮，迪拜政府出人意料地宣布將爭(zhēng)取重組迪拜世界(Dubai World)的260億美元債務(wù)。迪拜世界是政府很多港口、基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施和房地產(chǎn)公司的控股公司。

Since then, residential real-estate prices in Dubai have slumped by almost 50%. Developers have slashed jobs and scrapped projects. Groundbreaking on the tower was long ago put on hold. The yearlong retrenchment culminated in last week's surprise announcement that Dubai would seek to restructure billion of debts owed by Dubai World, the holding company for many of the government's port, infrastructure and real-estate businesses.

在這場(chǎng)動(dòng)蕩背后是世界上最嚴(yán)重的樓市泡沫之一。在阿聯(lián)酋，約有價(jià)值4,300億美元的建筑項(xiàng)目被取消。阿聯(lián)酋位于沙漠地區(qū)，人口只有450萬(wàn)人，面積尚不及美國(guó)的南卡羅來(lái)納州。據(jù)地區(qū)項(xiàng)目追蹤雜志《中東經(jīng)濟(jì)文摘》(Middle East Economic Digest)估計(jì)，其中大部分取消的項(xiàng)目都在酋長(zhǎng)國(guó)迪拜。

Behind this jolt was one of the world's most concentrated property bubbles. Some 0 billion worth of construction projects have been scrapped across the United Arab Emirates, a desert country with a population of just 4.5 million and an area smaller than South Carolina. The majority were slated for the emirate of Dubai, according to estimates by the Middle East Economic Digest, a regional projects tracker.

寬松的信貸、投機(jī)者泛濫而缺乏監(jiān)管的市場(chǎng)、以及迪拜官員們的鼓吹，這些因素都助長(zhǎng)了泡沫的增大，包括世襲的酋長(zhǎng)馬克圖姆(Sheik Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum)。

The boom was fueled by easy credit, a poorly regulated market overrun by speculators, and cheerleading from Dubai officials -- including the hereditary ruler, Sheik Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum.

馬克圖姆對(duì)迪拜的設(shè)想──一個(gè)向世界敞開(kāi)胸懷、寬容而現(xiàn)代的都市，它的很多信念和繁榮──長(zhǎng)期以來(lái)一直令保守的阿拉伯鄰國(guó)惱怒不已，包括阿聯(lián)酋保守的首都阿不扎比的一些官員。不過(guò)對(duì)其他人來(lái)說(shuō)，迪拜則是一種象征──如果一個(gè)現(xiàn)代的阿拉伯國(guó)家接納了西方及其金融體系的話，可能實(shí)現(xiàn)怎樣輝煌的成就。美國(guó)總統(tǒng)奧巴馬6月份在開(kāi)羅對(duì)穆斯林世界發(fā)表演講時(shí)，特別提到迪拜是經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展發(fā)揮成效的地方。

His vision for the city -- a tolerant, modern metropolis open to the world, its many faiths and some of its excesses -- has long rankled conservative Arab neighbors, including some officials in Abu Dhabi, the buttoned-down capital of the U.A.E. But for others, Dubai became a symbol of what a modern Arab state might achieve if it embraced the West and its financial system. President Barack Obama, in a June speech to the Muslim world in Cairo, singled out Dubai as a place where economic development worked.

迪拜高聳的摩天大樓是該國(guó)自豪感的象征。在本周的國(guó)慶游行中，身著傳統(tǒng)阿拉伯長(zhǎng)袍的男人們推著載有迪拜標(biāo)志性建筑模型的彩車(chē)。其中有將于下個(gè)月開(kāi)始運(yùn)營(yíng)的世界最高的大樓迪拜塔(Burj Dubai)、帆船形狀的迪拜帆船酒店(Burj Al Arab)和設(shè)有室內(nèi)滑雪道的阿聯(lián)酋購(gòu)物中心(Mall of the Emirates)。

Dubai's soaring skyline is a symbol of pride here. At a National Day parade this week, men dressed in traditional Arab garb pushed floats consisting of scale models of the city's iconic buildings. There were models of the Burj Dubai -- the world's tallest skyscraper, due to open next month -- as well as the sail-shaped Burj Al Arab hotel and the Mall of the Emirates, which houses an indoor ski slope.

哈馬迪(Ahmed Al Hammadi)觀看著國(guó)慶游行說(shuō)，我們的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人能夠?qū)崿F(xiàn)這一切。至于眼下的債務(wù)危機(jī)，他說(shuō)，我們會(huì)以更強(qiáng)大的姿態(tài)走出危機(jī)。

'Our leaders have been able to achieve all of this,' said Ahmed Al Hammadi, watching the parade. As for the current debt crisis, 'we will come out of it stronger,' he said.

官員和開(kāi)發(fā)商們?yōu)檫@種飛速的建設(shè)速度尋找理由，說(shuō)這是因?yàn)榈习菥o鄰亞洲和歐洲、不用交稅、民風(fēng)寬容，還是這一地區(qū)的商業(yè)樞紐。鑒于迪拜對(duì)追逐大型項(xiàng)目似乎毫無(wú)限制，外國(guó)企業(yè)高管、建筑師和房地產(chǎn)經(jīng)紀(jì)商紛紛涌入這里。國(guó)際債務(wù)和房地產(chǎn)投資者也聽(tīng)信了這個(gè)美夢(mèng)，直到全球金融市場(chǎng)凍結(jié)、世界大部分地區(qū)跌入了衰退。之后，買(mǎi)家開(kāi)始尋求救助，雇主裁員，企業(yè)暫停擴(kuò)張計(jì)劃。

Officials and developers justified the breakneck pace at which these were built by touting Dubai's proximity to both Asia and Europe, its tax-free and tolerant way of life and its position as the region's business hub. Foreign executives, architects and real-estate brokers flocked here for the seemingly limitless scope to pursue big projects. International debt and property investors bought into the dream, too, until global financial markets seized up and much of the world plunged into recession. Then, buyers began to bail out, employers shed staff and companies put expansion on hold.

結(jié)果是造成了驚人的房屋積壓。在貫穿迪拜摩天大樓間的超級(jí)高速公路Sheikh Zayed的沿線，數(shù)十座新近完工的建筑的外立面上都掛著“出租”的廣告牌。據(jù)國(guó)際房地產(chǎn)經(jīng)紀(jì)公司高力國(guó)際(Colliers International)的數(shù)據(jù)，新建筑的空置率在41%。

The result is a jaw-dropping real-estate overhang. 'To Let' signboards adorn the facades of dozens of recently finished buildings along Sheikh Zayed Road, the superhighway that cuts through the city's canyon of skyscrapers. Office vacancies in new buildings run at 41%, according to international property agency Colliers International.

上周，迪拜政府大出市場(chǎng)意料地宣布將把迪拜世界的債務(wù)償還延期6個(gè)月甚至更長(zhǎng)；本周二早間又說(shuō)，將開(kāi)始針對(duì)迪拜世界債務(wù)的分階段重組計(jì)劃，包括與Nakheel有關(guān)的60億美元債務(wù)。迪拜政府說(shuō)，重組將包括對(duì)“去杠桿化選擇”的評(píng)估，包括資產(chǎn)出售。迪拜世界說(shuō)，已經(jīng)開(kāi)始與銀行進(jìn)行磋商，并在“有建設(shè)性的”基礎(chǔ)上推進(jìn)。

After taking markets by surprise last week with a request to delay debt payments at Dubai World by six months or more, the government here said early Tuesday it would begin a multiphase restructuring effort aimed at the company's debt, including billion related to Nakheel's lending. It said the restucturing would include the assessment of 'deleveraging options,' including asset sales. Dubai World said it had started discussions with its banks and these were proceeding on a 'constructive basis.'