人工智能或許并非是工人的噩夢

A SPECTRE is haunting workers—the rise of artificial intelligence (AI). The fear is that smart computer programs will eliminate millions of jobs, condemning a generation to minimum-wage drudgery or enforced idleness. Never mind the robots, fear the software.
人工智能正蓬勃發(fā)展，這是對工人的魔咒。有人擔(dān)心智能的計(jì)算機(jī)程序會干掉數(shù)以百萬計(jì)的工作崗位，讓一代人吃低保，甚至是無事可做。不必在意機(jī)器人，要的是軟件。 There is no need to be so gloomy, say Ken Goldberg of the University of California, Berkeley, and Vinod Kumar, the chief executive of Tata Communications, a unit of India’s biggest business house (which stands to profit from the spread of AI). They have produced a report* that is much more optimistic about the outlook for ordinary employees. In many cases, it says, job satisfaction will be enhanced by the elimination of mundane tasks, giving people time to be more creative.
加州大學(xué)伯克利分?？?bull;戈德堡和印度最大企業(yè)家塔塔下屬的塔塔電信首席執(zhí)行官維諾德•庫馬爾均表示不必如此悲觀。他們發(fā)表過一篇報(bào)告，對普通勞動者的就業(yè)前景更加樂觀。該報(bào)告稱，在很多情況下，工作滿意度會隨工作任務(wù)的減少而提高，原因是人們有更多的時(shí)間來變得更有創(chuàng)造才能。

Their views are backed up by a survey of 120 senior executives, conducted for the report, which found that more of them (77%) thought that AI would create new roles than believed it would replace existing positions (57%; respondents could choose both options). Extra skills may be needed to cope with the new technology and more than half of the bosses are already taking steps to train their workforces.
他們的觀點(diǎn)得到了對120名高管調(diào)查的結(jié)果證實(shí)。該調(diào)查發(fā)現(xiàn)，大多數(shù)人認(rèn)為人工智能有望創(chuàng)造新崗位(77%)，少數(shù)人認(rèn)為它們會取代工人(57%;受訪者可以雙選)。掌握新技術(shù)需要學(xué)習(xí)更多的技能，一半以上的高管開始采取行動，培訓(xùn)員工。

Previous technology shifts have not had as negative effects on employment as was first feared. The authors note some well-known examples. Bar-code scanners did not eliminate the role of cashiers in America; jobs in the retail industry grew at an annual rate of more than 2% between 1980 and 2013. The arrival of automated teller machines (ATMs) spared bank employees the job of doling out cash and freed them to offer financial advice to customers.
之前的技術(shù)轉(zhuǎn)變對就業(yè)的負(fù)面影響并不像人們一開始想的那樣嚴(yán)重。兩位報(bào)告作者給出了一些經(jīng)典案例。條形碼掃描器并沒有剝奪收銀員的工作;從1980年到2013年，零售業(yè)工作崗位以每年超過2%的速度增長。自動柜員機(jī)出現(xiàn)后，銀行員工從取款業(yè)務(wù)中脫身，轉(zhuǎn)向向客戶提供財(cái)務(wù)建議。

Some jobs could be made a lot easier by AI. One example is lorry-driving. Some fear that truck drivers will be replaced by autonomous vehicles. But manoeuvring a lorry around busy streets is far harder than driving down the motorway. So the driver could switch into automatic mode (and get some rest) when outside the big cities, and take over the wheel once again when nearing the destination. The obvious analogy is with jetliners, where the pilots handle take-off and landing but turn on the computer to cruise at 35,000 feet. Using AI may prevent tired drivers from causing accidents.
人工智能某些工作做起來更加容易一些，比如駕駛卡車。有人會擔(dān)心自動駕駛汽車取代會卡車司機(jī)。不過，在流量大的公路上開車要比在高速路上難得多。因此，司機(jī)在城外可以切換到自動模式(并能休息一會兒)，接近目的地后再親自操控。客機(jī)亦是如此，飛行員執(zhí)行起飛和降落任務(wù)，中期就打開電腦，在35,000英尺的高空自動巡航。使用人工智能可以防止因疲勞駕駛釀成事故。

Turning to office life, AI can help with complex and fiddly tasks like managing supply chains, allocating desk space and keeping records of meetings. All this can free up time for people to work on more important strategic decisions. The authors also think that AI could help collaboration within companies. One obvious example is the elimination of language barriers. Multinational companies may have employees who lack a common language; AI can handle translation in real time so that dialogue is easier.
再說到辦公領(lǐng)域，人工智能可以輔助處理供應(yīng)鏈、分配辦公桌空間、進(jìn)行會議記錄等復(fù)雜繁瑣的工作。這些工作能給人們騰出時(shí)間做重要的戰(zhàn)略決策。上述報(bào)告人的作者還認(rèn)為人工智能有助于企業(yè)內(nèi)部合作。一個(gè)明顯的例子就是能消除語言障礙?？鐕締T工之間可能無法交流；但人工智能可以實(shí)時(shí)處理翻譯，對話交流更容易一些。

And the report argues that AI can produce better decision-making by offering a contrarian opinion so that teams can avoid the danger of groupthink. A program could analyse e-mails and meeting transcripts and issue alerts when potentially false assumptions are being made (rather like the boy in the Hans Christian Andersen tale who notices that the Emperor has no clothes). Or it can warn a team when it is getting distracted from the task in hand.
上述報(bào)告提出一個(gè)觀點(diǎn)，認(rèn)為人工智能可以提出不同建議，避免集體思維相近，從而做出最佳決策。程序可以分析電子郵件和會議記錄，在可能出錯時(shí)發(fā)出警告(它就好比安徒生童話里那個(gè)注意到皇帝沒穿衣服的男孩)?；蛘撸瑘F(tuán)隊(duì)偏離工作重點(diǎn)時(shí)，它能進(jìn)行提示。

When a firm is starting a new project, AI can also suggest experts from other parts of the organisation who could contribute. In recruitment, managers could set criteria for “cognitive diversity” (seeking people with different academic and cultural backgrounds) when conducting a job search and allow AI to suggest candidates. This could eliminate remaining hiring biases in favour of white males.
在一家企業(yè)啟動新項(xiàng)目時(shí)，人工智能還可以舉薦其他部門的專業(yè)人士參與。在招聘過程中，管理者招人時(shí)可以為對“認(rèn)知多樣性”(尋找具有不同學(xué)術(shù)和文化背景的人)設(shè)定標(biāo)準(zhǔn)，放手讓人工智能推薦候求職者。這樣一來招聘能避免對白人男性特殊對待。

Helen Poitevin of Gartner, a research company, says that some firms are using AI to suggest training possibilities to existing workers, based on the career paths of similar staff, as an aid to their career development. And programs are also being used to analyse individual employees’ feedback so that managers can be aware of specific areas where a lot of people are unhappy. If they react in the right way, this should make workers’ lives better.
市場研究機(jī)構(gòu)Gartner的Helen Poitevin表示，有一些企業(yè)正謀求通過類比同類員工的職業(yè)發(fā)展通道，用人工智能為在職員工培訓(xùn)，幫助他們的職業(yè)發(fā)展。程序也能分析每個(gè)員工的反饋，管理者就能意識哪些部門員工幸福指數(shù)低。如果人工智能分析正確，這會讓工人的生活更美好。

All of which is a useful corrective to some of the more alarming predictions about the potential effects of AI. But as ever, it needs to be remembered that programs are only as good as the data they are given. If those who input the data have biases, they may show up in the suggestions that it generates. As Ms Poitevin says, AI can help improve diversity in the workforce “if we want it to”. The best employers should be able to turn AI into a positive for workers.
針對人工智能的潛在影響，人們更多地是發(fā)出警告之聲，上述說法有利回?fù)袅诉@一認(rèn)識誤區(qū)。但有一樣我們要謹(jǐn)記在心，程序只有通過輸入數(shù)據(jù)才能發(fā)揮作用。如果數(shù)據(jù)輸入者產(chǎn)生偏差，就會影響到人工智能下一步提供建議。正如波伊特文所說，“如果我們想實(shí)現(xiàn)”，人工智能就可以幫助提高勞動力多樣性。好老板應(yīng)該把人工智能變成員工的福音。