海平面上升，世界上的主要沿海城市可能被淹沒

Rising seas could affect three times more people by 2050 than previously thought, according to new research, threatening to all but erase some of the world’s great coastal cities.

一項最新研究顯示，到2050年，海平面上升對人類的影響將是之前預(yù)計的三倍，這可能會幾乎抹掉世界上一些最重要的沿海城市。

The authors of a paper published Tuesday developed a more accurate way of calculating land elevation based on satellite readings, a standard way of estimating the effects of sea level rise over large areas, and found that the previous numbers were far too optimistic. The new research shows that some 150 million people are now living on land that will be below the high-tide line by midcentury.

在周二發(fā)表的一篇論文中，作者開發(fā)了一種更精確的、基于衛(wèi)星讀數(shù)的陸地高程計算方法，這是估計大面積海平面上升影響的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)方法，他們發(fā)現(xiàn)之前的數(shù)據(jù)過于樂觀。新的研究表明，到本世紀(jì)中葉，約有1.5億人將生活在海平面以下的陸地上。

Southern Vietnam could all but disappear.

越南南部可能會完全消失。

More than 20 million people in Vietnam, almost one-quarter of the population, live on land that will be inundated.

越南有2000多萬人口生活在即將被淹沒的土地上，幾乎占總?cè)丝诘乃姆种弧?/p>

Much of Ho Chi Minh City, the nation’s economic center, would disappear with it, according to the research, which was produced by Climate Central, a science organization based in New Jersey, and published in the journal Nature Communications. The projections don’t account for future population growth or land lost to coastal erosion.

由新澤西州的科學(xué)組織氣候中心(Climate Central)所做的這項研究，發(fā)表在《自然通訊》(Nature Communications)期刊上。它稱，越南的經(jīng)濟(jì)中心胡志明市的大部分地區(qū)將隨之消失。這些預(yù)測沒有考慮未來的人口增長或海岸侵蝕造成的土地?fù)p失。

Standard elevation measurements using satellites struggle to differentiate the true ground level from the tops of trees or buildings, said Scott A. Kulp, a researcher at Climate Central and one of the paper’s authors. So he and Benjamin Strauss, Climate Central’s chief executive, used artificial intelligence to determine the error rate and correct for it.

論文作者之一、氣候中心研究員斯科特·A·庫爾普(Scott a . Kulp)說，使用衛(wèi)星進(jìn)行的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)高程測量很難區(qū)分真實的地面高度與樹木或建筑物的頂部。因此，他和氣候中心的首席執(zhí)行官本杰明·施特勞斯(Benjamin Strauss)使用人工智能來確定錯誤率并進(jìn)行校正。

In Thailand, more than 10 percent of citizens now live on land that is likely to be inundated by 2050, compared with just 1 percent according to the earlier technique. The political and commercial capital, Bangkok, is particularly imperiled.

在泰國，超過10%的居民現(xiàn)在生活在可能在2050年被淹沒的土地上，根據(jù)早期的技術(shù)，這個比例只有1%。政治和商業(yè)首都曼谷尤其岌岌可危。

Climate change will put pressure on cities in multiple ways, said Loretta Hieber Girardet, a Bangkok resident and United Nations disaster risk-reduction official. Even as global warming floods more places, it will also push poor farmers off the land to seek work in cities.

聯(lián)合國減災(zāi)官員、曼谷居民洛蕾塔·希伯·吉拉德特(Loretta Hieber Girardet)表示，氣候變化將在多個方面給城市帶來壓力。全球變暖淹沒了更多的地方，而且還將迫使貧窮的農(nóng)民離開土地到城市尋找工作。

“It is a dire formula,” she said.

“這是一個可怕的公式，”她說。

In Shanghai, one of Asia’s most important economic engines, water threatens to consume the heart of the city and many other cities around it.

上海是亞洲最重要的經(jīng)濟(jì)引擎之一，水患正威脅侵蝕它的心臟地帶及其周邊的許多城市。

The findings don’t have to spell the end of those areas. The new data shows that 110 million people already live in places that are below the high tide line, which Mr. Strauss attributes to protective measures like seawalls and other barriers. Cities must invest vastly greater sums in such defenses, Mr. Strauss said, and they must do it quickly.

該發(fā)現(xiàn)并不意味著這些地區(qū)的末日。新的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，已經(jīng)有1.1億人生活在漲潮線以下的地方，斯特勞斯將其歸因于海堤等防護(hù)措施。施特勞斯說，城市必須在這類防御措施上投入大量資金，而且必須盡快。

But even if that investment happens, defensive measures can go only so far. Mr. Strauss offered the example of New Orleans, a city below sea level that was devastated in 2005 when its extensive levees and other protections failed during Hurricane Katrina. “How deep a bowl do we want to live in”? he asked.

但即使投資到位，防御性措施也只能起到這么大的作用。斯特勞斯以新奧爾良為例，這座低于海平面的城市在2005年遭到了毀滅性的破壞，原因是在卡特琳娜颶風(fēng)(Hurricane Katrina)來襲時，它大面積的防洪堤和其他防護(hù)設(shè)施都失靈了。“我們想住在口多深的碗里?”他問道。

The new projections suggest that much of Mumbai, India’s financial capital and one of the largest cities in the world, is at risk of being wiped out. Built on what was once a series of islands, the city’s historic downtown core is particularly vulnerable.

新的預(yù)測顯示，世界上最大的城市之一、印度金融中心孟買的大部分地區(qū)有被摧毀的危險。這座城市的市中心擁有悠久的歷史，其核心地帶過去曾是一系列島嶼，如今格外脆弱。

Over all, the research shows that countries should start preparing now for more citizens to relocate internally, according to Dina Ionesco of the International Organization for Migration, an intergovernmental group that coordinates action on migrants and development.

協(xié)調(diào)移民和發(fā)展行動的政府間組織國際移民組織(International Organization for Migration)的黛娜·約內(nèi)斯科(Dina Ionesco)說，總的來說，研究表明，各國現(xiàn)在應(yīng)該開始為更多居民在國內(nèi)重新安置做好準(zhǔn)備。

“We’ve been trying to ring the alarm bells,” Ms. Ionesco said. “We know that it’s coming.” There is little modern precedent for this scale of population movement, she added.

“我們一直試圖敲響警鐘，”約內(nèi)斯科說。“我們知道它就要來了。”她還說，這種規(guī)模的人口流動在現(xiàn)代幾乎沒有先例。

The disappearance of cultural heritage could bring its own kind of devastation. Alexandria, Egypt, founded by Alexander the Great around 330 B.C., could be lost to rising waters.

文化遺產(chǎn)的消失也會造成損失。埃及的亞歷山大市由亞歷山大大帝在公元前330年左右建立，它可能會被上升的海水淹沒。

In other places, the migration caused by rising seas could trigger or exacerbate regional conflicts.

在其他地方，海平面上升引起的遷移可能引發(fā)或加劇區(qū)域沖突。

Basra, the second-largest city in Iraq, could be mostly underwater by 2050. If that happens, the effects could be felt well beyond Iraq’s borders, according to John Castellaw, a retired Marine Corps lieutenant general who was chief of staff for United States Central Command during the Iraq War.

到2050年，伊拉克第二大城市巴士拉可能會被淹沒。退役海軍陸戰(zhàn)隊中將、曾在伊拉克戰(zhàn)爭期間擔(dān)任美國中央司令部參謀長的約翰·卡斯特洛(John Castellaw)表示，如果這種情況真的發(fā)生，其影響可能會遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超出伊拉克的邊界。

Further loss of land to rising waters there “threatens to drive further social and political instability in the region, which could reignite armed conflict and increase the likelihood of terrorism,” said General Castellaw, who is now on the advisory board of the Center for Climate and Security, a research and advocacy group in Washington.

因為海平面上升而進(jìn)一步損失土地，“可能促進(jìn)該地區(qū)社會和政治不穩(wěn)定，從而引發(fā)武裝沖突，增加恐怖主義的可能性，”卡斯特洛表示，他目前是華盛頓研究和游說團(tuán)體氣候與安全中心(Center for Climate and Security)的顧問委員會成員。

“So this is far more than an environmental problem,” he said. “It’s a humanitarian, security and possibly military problem too.”

“所以這遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)不只是一個環(huán)境問題，”他說。“這是人道主義和安全問題，以及可能的軍事問題。”