演講MP3+雙語(yǔ)文稿:海藻的重要作用

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【演講人及介紹】Tim Flannery

環(huán)保主義者，探險(xiǎn)家，教授蒂姆·弗蘭納里（Tim Flannery）試圖把握地球進(jìn)化的全局，以及人類(lèi)如何影響地球。

【演講主題】海藻能否幫助遏制全球變暖?

【演講文稿-中英文】

翻譯者 Nan Yang 校對(duì) Lipeng Chen

00:16

This is seaweed. It's pretty humble stuff.But it does have some remarkable qualities. For one, it grows really fast. Sothe carbon that is part of that seaweed, just a few weeks ago, was floating inthe atmosphere as atmospheric CO2, driving all the adverse consequences ofclimate change. For the moment, it's locked safely away in the seaweed, butwhen that seaweed rots -- and by the smell of it, it's not far away -- when itrots, that CO2 will be released back to the atmosphere. Wouldn't it befantastic if we could find a way of keeping that CO2 locked up long-term, andthereby significantly contributing to solving the climate problem?

這是海藻。這是很不起眼的東西。但是它確實(shí)有一些了不起的特質(zhì)。其中一個(gè)就是，它們生長(zhǎng)得非?？?。僅在幾周前，海藻中的一部分，碳，以大氣層中二氧化碳的形態(tài)正漂浮在大氣中，造成了氣候變化中的那些不良后果。而此時(shí)此刻，碳被安全的鎖在海藻中，但是當(dāng)海藻腐爛時(shí)——而且聞起來(lái)，它離腐爛不遠(yuǎn)了——當(dāng)它腐爛時(shí)，二氧化碳會(huì)被釋放回大氣層。如果我們能夠找到一種方法可以長(zhǎng)期把二氧化碳鎖住，從而為解決氣候問(wèn)題做出重大貢獻(xiàn)，這樣豈不是棒極了？

01:15

What I'm talking about here is drawdown.It's now become the other half of the climate challenge. And that's because wehave delayed so long, in terms of addressing climate change, that we now haveto do two very big and very difficult things at once. We have to cut ouremissions and clean our energy supply at the same time that we draw significantvolumes of carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere. If we don't do that, about 25percent of the CO2 we put in the air will remain there, by human standards,forever. So we have to act.

我現(xiàn)在所說(shuō)的是吸收?，F(xiàn)在它變成了氣候挑戰(zhàn)的另一部分。是因?yàn)槲覀円呀?jīng)在解決氣候變化的問(wèn)題上拖延了太久了。所以我們現(xiàn)在不得不同時(shí)面對(duì)兩件非常重大而艱難的問(wèn)題。我們要減少排放，清潔我們的能源供應(yīng)，同時(shí)要大量吸收大氣層中的二氧化碳。如果我們不這樣做，我們排入到空氣中的二氧化碳按照人類(lèi)的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)，有大約25%會(huì)永遠(yuǎn)留在那。所以我們必須行動(dòng)起來(lái)。

01:54

This is really a new phase in addressingthe climate crisis and it demands new thinking. So, ideas like carbon offsetsreally don't make sense in the modern era. You know, when you offset something,you say, "I'll permit myself to put some greenhouse gas into theatmosphere, but then I'll offset it by drawing it down." When you've gotto both cut your emissions and draw down CO2, that thinking doesn't make senseanymore. And when we're talking about drawdown, we're talking about puttinglarge volumes of greenhouses gases, particularly CO2, out of circulation. Andto do that, we need a carbon price. We need a significant price that we'll payfor that service that we'll all benefit from.

這真的是解決氣候危機(jī)的一個(gè)新的階段，我們需要有新的思路。所以，像碳抵消這種想法，在當(dāng)今時(shí)代并沒(méi)有什么意義。當(dāng)你們選擇抵消，你會(huì)說(shuō)，“我會(huì)允許自己向大氣層中排放溫室氣體，而之后我會(huì)通過(guò)吸收它來(lái)抵消掉。”當(dāng)你可以既減少排放量又吸收二氧化碳，之前那種想法不再有意義。而當(dāng)我們討論吸收，我們說(shuō)的是要將大量的溫室氣體，尤其是二氧化碳移出大氣循環(huán)。而要做這個(gè)，我們需要為碳定價(jià)。我們需要很高的價(jià)格來(lái)支付為我們提供福利的這項(xiàng)服務(wù)。

02:38

We've made almost no progress so far withthe second half of the climate challenge. It's not on most people's radar. And,you know, I must say, at times, I hear people saying, "I've lost hope thatwe can do anything about the climate crisis." And look, I've had mysleepless nights too, I can tell you. But I'm here today as an ambassador forthis humble weed, seaweed. I think it has the potential to be a big part ofaddressing the challenge of climate change and a big part of our future.

至今我們對(duì)于氣候問(wèn)題的第二部分基本上沒(méi)有一點(diǎn)進(jìn)展。這不在大多數(shù)人的關(guān)注范圍內(nèi)。而且我必須說(shuō)，有時(shí)候，我聽(tīng)見(jiàn)人們說(shuō)，“我對(duì)我們能為氣候危機(jī)所做的已經(jīng)失去希望了。”而且我可以告訴你們，我已經(jīng)失眠了好幾夜了。但是今天我的身份是這個(gè)不起眼的海藻的大使。我覺(jué)得它有潛力成為解決氣候變化問(wèn)題的一個(gè)重大部分，也會(huì)是我們未來(lái)的一個(gè)重要部分。

03:14

Now, what the scientists are telling us weneed to do over the next 80-odd years to the end of this century, is to cut ourgreenhouse gas emissions by three percent every year, and draw three gigatonsof CO2 out of the atmosphere every year. Those numbers are so large that theybaffle us. But that's what the scientists tell us we need to do.

科學(xué)家們告訴我們，我們需要在接下來(lái)的 80 年，直到本世紀(jì)結(jié)束，每年減少 3% 溫室氣體的排放，而且每年吸收大氣層中三十億噸的二氧化碳。這些數(shù)字太大了，讓我們無(wú)所適從。但是這是科學(xué)家告訴我們要去做的。

04:15

So how might we go about drawing downgreenhouse gases at a large scale? There's really only two ways of doing it,and I've done a very deep dive into drawdown. And I'll preempt my -- And Iwould say this stuff comes up smelling like roses at the end of the day. Itdoes, it's one of the best options, but there are many, many possibilities.There are chemical pathways and biological pathways. So two ways, really, ofgetting the job done.

那么我們?nèi)绾未蠓任盏魷厥覛怏w呢？這其實(shí)只有兩條道路，而且我已經(jīng)深入研究過(guò)吸收這個(gè)方法了。我會(huì)先發(fā)制人——我要說(shuō)這個(gè)東西最終會(huì)聞起來(lái)像玫瑰。它確實(shí)是最好的一個(gè)選項(xiàng)。但是也有其他很多，很多可能性。兩種方法分別是化學(xué)途徑和生物途徑。兩者都可以達(dá)到目的。

04:48

The biological pathways are fantasticbecause the energy source that's needed to drive them, the sun, is effectivelyfree. We use the sun to drive photosynthesis in plants, break apart that CO2and capture the carbon. There are also chemical pathways. They sound ominous,but actually, they're not bad at all. The difficulty they face is that we haveto actually pay for the energy that's required to do the job or pay tofacilitate that energy. Direct air capture is a great example of a chemicalpathway, and people are using that right now to take CO2 out of the atmosphereand manufacture biofuels or manufacture plastics. Great progress is being made,but it will be many decades before those chemical pathways are drawing down agigaton of CO2 a year.

生物途徑是很棒的，因?yàn)樾枰?qū)動(dòng)它們的能量來(lái)源，太陽(yáng)，實(shí)際上是免費(fèi)的。我們用太陽(yáng)來(lái)帶動(dòng)植物的光合作用，分解二氧化碳，捕捉碳元素。然后還有化學(xué)途徑。聽(tīng)起來(lái)不太妙，但是實(shí)際上，它們一點(diǎn)也不糟糕。大家面對(duì)的難處是我們不得不為 工作所需的能源花錢(qián) 或者為讓那些能源 更方便易得花錢(qián)。直接的空氣捕捉是 化學(xué)途徑的一個(gè)好例子。人們正在用這種方式 將二氧化碳從大氣中，制造生物燃料或制造塑料 的過(guò)程中搜集起來(lái)。人們已經(jīng)有了很大的進(jìn)展，但是要實(shí)現(xiàn)通過(guò)化學(xué)途徑一年降低 10 億噸二氧化碳，還要等上好幾十年。

05:33

The biological pathways offer us a lot morehope, I think, in the short term. You've probably heard about reforestation,planting trees, as a solution to the climate problem. You know, it's a fairquestion: Can we plant our way out of this problem by using trees? I'mskeptical about that for a number of reasons. One is just the scale of theproblem. All trees start as seeds, little tiny things, and it's many decadesbefore they've reached their full carbon-capture potential. And secondly, ifyou look at the land surface, you see that it's so heavily utilized. We get ourfood from it, we get our forestry products from it, biodiversity protection andwater and everything else. To expect that we'll find enough space to deal withthis problem, I think is going to be quite problematic.

我認(rèn)為，生物途徑在短期內(nèi)會(huì)給我們更多希望。你們可能聽(tīng)過(guò)把造林，植樹(shù)作為氣候問(wèn)題的解決方法。這是一個(gè)合理的疑問(wèn)：我們能只通過(guò)種樹(shù)來(lái)解決問(wèn)題嗎? 由于多種原因，我對(duì)此表示懷疑。其中之一就是這個(gè)問(wèn)題的規(guī)模。所有樹(shù)都是從非常小的種子開(kāi)始，在它們獲得充分捕捉碳的能力前需要好幾十年。第二點(diǎn)，如果看看地表，會(huì)發(fā)現(xiàn)它的使用率已經(jīng)很高了。我們從中獲取食物，從中獲取林業(yè)產(chǎn)品，生物多樣性保護(hù)，水，以及其它所有東西。期盼我們可以找到足夠的空間來(lái)解決這個(gè)問(wèn)題，我覺(jué)得這首先就是個(gè)問(wèn)題。

06:21

But if we look offshore, wee see a solutionwhere there's already an existing industry, and where there's a clearer wayforward. The oceans cover about 70 percent of our planet. They play a reallybig role in regulating our climate, and if we can enhance the growth of seaweedin them, we can use them, I think, to develop a climate-altering crop. Thereare so many different kinds of seaweed, there's unbelievable genetic diversityin seaweed, and they're very ancient; they were some of the first multicellularorganisms ever to evolve. People are using special kinds of seaweed now forparticular purposes, like developing very high-quality pharmaceutical products.But you can also use seaweed to take a seaweed bath, it's supposed to be goodfor your skin; I can't testify to that, but you can do it. The scalability isthe big thing about seaweed farming.

但是如果我們看海上，我們發(fā)現(xiàn)了一個(gè)解決方案，而且已經(jīng)形成了一個(gè)產(chǎn)業(yè)，這似乎是一個(gè)更明確的前進(jìn)方向。海洋覆蓋了地球面積的 70%，在調(diào)節(jié)我們的氣候上扮演著非常重要的角色。如果我們能夠增強(qiáng)海洋中海藻的生長(zhǎng)，我認(rèn)為我們就可以用它們來(lái)開(kāi)發(fā)一種改變氣候的農(nóng)作物。海洋中有很多不同種類(lèi)的海藻，存在著不可思議的遺傳多樣性，而且它們非常古老；它們屬于最先進(jìn)化的一部分多細(xì)胞生物。人們正為了一些特定的原因使用特別種類(lèi)的海藻，像開(kāi)發(fā)非常高質(zhì)量的藥物。你也可以泡一個(gè)海藻浴，它應(yīng)該會(huì)對(duì)你的皮膚有好處；我無(wú)法證明這一點(diǎn)，但是你們可以去證明。可擴(kuò)展性是海藻養(yǎng)殖中的一件大事。

07:11

You know, if we could cover nine percent ofthe world's ocean in seaweed farms, we could draw down the equivalent of all ofthe greenhouse gases we put up in any one year, more than 50 gigatons. Now, Ithought that was fantastic when I first read it, but I thought I'd bettercalculate how big nine percent of the world's oceans is. It turns out, it'sabout four and a half Australias, the place I live in. And how close are we tothat at the moment? How many ocean-going seaweed farms do we actually have outthere? Zero. But we do have some prototypes, and therein lies some hope.

如果我們的海藻養(yǎng)殖能覆蓋全球海洋中 9% 的海藻，我們就可以把一年排放的溫室氣體量都搜集起來(lái)，多于 500 億噸。當(dāng)我第一次讀到它時(shí)，我覺(jué)得這棒極了，但是我認(rèn)為最好計(jì)算一下全世界海洋的 9% 有多大。事實(shí)證明，有四個(gè)半澳洲大，也就是我住的地方。而我們現(xiàn)在距離目標(biāo)有多遠(yuǎn)呢？我們現(xiàn)在有多少海藻養(yǎng)殖場(chǎng)呢？零。但是我們有一些試驗(yàn)?zāi)Ｐ?，還保有一點(diǎn)希望。

07:45

It'sreally different from anything you see on land. And the reason being that, youknow, seaweed is not like trees, it doesn't have nonproductive parts like rootsand trunks and branches and bark. The whole of the plant is pretty muchphotosynthetic, so it grows fast. Seaweed can grow a meter a day.

它們和我們?cè)陉懙厣?看見(jiàn)的任何東西都不同。而原因就是，海藻不像樹(shù)木，它沒(méi)有非生產(chǎn)性的部分，像根，樹(shù)干，樹(shù)枝和樹(shù)皮。整個(gè)植物都在做光合作用，所以它長(zhǎng)得很快。海藻可以每天長(zhǎng)一米。

08:18

And how do we sequester the carbon? Again,it's very different from on land. All you need to do is cut that seaweed off --drifts into the ocean abyss, Once it's down a kilometer, the carbon in thatseaweed is effectively out of the atmospheric system for centuries ormillennia. Whereas if you plant a forest, you've got to worry about forestfires, bugs, etc., releasing that carbon.You know, the mid-ocean is basically a vast biological desert. There'sno nutrients there that were used up long ago. But just 500 meters down, thereis cool, very nutrient-rich water. And with just a little bit of clean,renewable energy, you can pump that water up and use the nutrients in it to irrigateyour seaweed crop. So I think this really has so many benefits. It's changing abiological desert, the mid-ocean, into a productive, maybe even planet-savingsolution.

我們?nèi)绾畏獯嫣寄?？同樣，與陸地上非常不同，我們需要做的僅僅就是砍掉海藻，讓它飄入海洋深處，一旦達(dá)到海面下一千米，海藻中的碳在幾個(gè)世紀(jì)或者幾千年內(nèi)都會(huì)遠(yuǎn)離大氣系統(tǒng)。不論你在哪種植森林，你都需要去擔(dān)心森林大火，蟲(chóng)害，碳排放等等問(wèn)題。海洋中層基本上是廣闊的生物沙漠。那里的營(yíng)養(yǎng)早就已經(jīng)被用光。但是往下僅僅 500 米，就有涼爽，營(yíng)養(yǎng)豐富的水。而且利用一點(diǎn)點(diǎn)清潔可再生能源，可以把那部分水抽上來(lái)，利用里面的營(yíng)養(yǎng)灌溉海藻。我認(rèn)為這個(gè)方法有很多益處。它將生物沙漠，也就是海底中部，改變成一個(gè)有生機(jī)的，甚至是可以拯救地球的方案。

09:25

So what could go wrong? Well, anythingwe're talking about at this scale involves a planetary-scale intervention. Andwe have to be very careful. I think that piles of stinking seaweed are probablygoing to be the least of our problems. There's other unforeseen things thatwill happen. One of the things that really worries me, when I talk about this,is the fate of biodiversity in the deep ocean. If we are putting gigatons ofseaweed into the deep ocean, we're affecting life down there.

那么有沒(méi)有出錯(cuò)的情況呢？我們現(xiàn)在談?wù)摰囊?guī)模覆蓋了整個(gè)地球。我們不得不非常小心。我認(rèn)為那堆發(fā)臭的海藻可能會(huì)是我們最小的問(wèn)題，還有其它無(wú)法預(yù)見(jiàn)的事情發(fā)生。其中一個(gè)當(dāng)我說(shuō)到它就非常擔(dān)心的是，深海生物多樣性的命運(yùn)。如果我們放了幾十億噸的海藻到深海中，我們會(huì)影響那里的生命。

09:51

The good news is that we know that a lot ofseaweed already reaches the deep ocean, after storms or through submarinecanyons. So we're not talking about a novel process here; we are talking aboutenhancing a natural process. And we'll learn as we go. I mean, it may be thatthese ocean-going seaweed farms will need to be mobile, to distribute theseaweed across vast areas of the ocean, rather than creating a big stinkingpile in one place. It may be that we'll need to char the seaweed -- so create asort of an inert, mineral biochar before we dispatch it into the deep. We won'tknow until we start the process, and we will learn effectively by doing.

好消息是，我們知道已經(jīng)有很多海藻 在海上風(fēng)暴后或者通過(guò)海底峽谷 到達(dá)了海洋深處。所以我們?cè)谟懻摰?不是一個(gè)全新的過(guò)程； 我們說(shuō)的是改善一個(gè)自然進(jìn)程。隨著我們的前行，我們會(huì)了解更多。我的意思是，這些遠(yuǎn)洋海藻養(yǎng)殖需要是可移動(dòng)的，可以跨越大片海洋區(qū)域來(lái)分布這些海藻，而不是在一個(gè)地方制造大片的臭味?？赡芪覀冃枰氖翘蓟Ｔ?，在我們把它們發(fā)放到深海前產(chǎn)生一種惰性的礦物炭。只有當(dāng)我們開(kāi)始這個(gè)過(guò)程時(shí)，我們才會(huì)知道，而且只有通過(guò)實(shí)踐才會(huì)有效學(xué)習(xí)。

10:34

I just want to take you to contemporaryseaweed farming. It's a big business -- it's a six-billion-dollar-a-yearbusiness. These seaweed farms off South Korea -- you can see them from space,they are huge. And they're increasingly not just seaweed farms. What people aredoing in places like this is something called ocean permaculture. And in oceanpermaculture, you grow fish, shellfish and seaweed all together. And the reasonit works so well is that the seaweed makes the seawater less acid. It providesan ideal environment for growing marine protein. If we covered nine percent ofthe world's oceans in ocean permaculture, we would be producing enough proteinin the form of fish and shellfish to give every person in a population of 10billion 200 kilograms of high-quality protein per year. So, we've got amultipotent solution here. We can address climate change, we can feed theworld, we can deacidify the oceans.

我想簡(jiǎn)單介紹一下現(xiàn)代海藻養(yǎng)殖。這是一個(gè)很大的行業(yè)——一個(gè)每年產(chǎn)值六十億的生意。在南韓的海藻養(yǎng)殖——你們可以從太空看到，它們面積很大。而且它們?cè)絹?lái)越多，不只是海藻養(yǎng)殖。在這種地方人們從事的是做海洋樸門(mén)。在海洋樸門(mén)中，人們將魚(yú)，貝類(lèi)和海藻一起培育。這個(gè)領(lǐng)域發(fā)展得很好的原因是海藻使得海水的酸性降低。這為海洋蛋白質(zhì)的生長(zhǎng)提供了理想的環(huán)境。如果我們?cè)谌澜?9% 的海洋中都從事海洋樸門(mén)，我們將以魚(yú)和貝類(lèi)的形式生產(chǎn)出足夠的蛋白質(zhì)來(lái)給 100 億人口每人每年提供 200 公斤高質(zhì)量的蛋白質(zhì)。所以，我們現(xiàn)在有了一個(gè)全能的解決方案。我們可以解決氣候變化，可以為世界供給食物，可以給海洋降低酸性。

11:32

The economics of all of this is going to bechallenging. We'll be investing many, many billions of dollars into thesesolutions, and they will take decades to get to the gigaton scale. The reasonthat I'm convinced that this is going to happen is that unless we get the gasout of the air, it is going to keep driving adverse consequences. It will floodour cities, it will deprive us of food, it will cause all sorts of civilunrest. So anyone who's got a solution to dealing with this problem has avaluable asset. And already, as I've explained, ocean permaculture is well onthe road to being economically sustainable. You know, in the next 30 years, wehave to go from being a carbon-emitting economy to a carbon-absorbing economy.And that doesn't seem like very long. But half of the greenhouse gases thatwe've put into the atmosphere, we've put there in the last 30 years.

所有這些在經(jīng)濟(jì)上都非常有挑戰(zhàn)。我們要投入好幾十億美元到這些方案中來(lái)，然后要花幾十年時(shí)間達(dá)到幾十億噸的規(guī)模。讓我相信這個(gè)計(jì)劃會(huì)實(shí)現(xiàn)的原因是，除非我們能夠?qū)厥覛怏w排出大氣，不然會(huì)繼續(xù)帶來(lái)不良的后果。海水會(huì)淹沒(méi)我們的城市，剝奪我們的食物，會(huì)引起各種內(nèi)亂。所以任何有解決方案的人都擁有了寶貴的資產(chǎn)，而且，就像我解釋過(guò)的，海洋樸門(mén)已經(jīng)在發(fā)展，正在變成經(jīng)濟(jì)上可持續(xù)的產(chǎn)業(yè)。在接下來(lái) 30 年，我們要從一個(gè)碳排放經(jīng)濟(jì)體走向碳吸收經(jīng)濟(jì)體?？雌饋?lái)這并不遙遠(yuǎn)了。但是我們釋放入大氣中的一半溫室氣體，是我們?cè)谶^(guò)去 30 年排放的。

12:31

My argument is, if we can put the gas in in30 years, we can pull it out in 30 years. And if you doubt how much can be doneover 30 years, just cast your mind back a century, to 1919, compare it with1950. Now, in 1919, here in Edinburgh, you might have seen a canvas and woodbiplane. Thirty years later, you'd be seeing jet aircraft. Transport in thestreet were horses in 1919. By 1950, they're motor vehicles. 1919, we had gunpowder; 1950, we had nuclear power. We can do a lot in a short period of time. Butit all depends upon us believing that we can find a solution.

我認(rèn)為，如果我們可以在 30 年內(nèi)排放這些氣體，我們也可以在 30 年內(nèi)將它們吸收。如果你們懷疑我們?cè)?30 年的時(shí)間能有多少進(jìn)展，只要回溯到一個(gè)世紀(jì)前的 1919 年，與 1950 年比較一下。在 1919 年的愛(ài)丁堡，你們可能見(jiàn)過(guò)帆布和木頭做的飛機(jī)。30 年后，你們看見(jiàn)的是噴氣式飛機(jī)。1919 年街上的交通工具是馬車(chē)。1950 年，變成了摩托車(chē)。1919 年，我們有槍作為武器； 1950 年，我們有了核能。我們?cè)谝欢魏芏虝r(shí)間的時(shí)間內(nèi)就能做很多事情。而這些全依靠于我們相信我們能夠找到一個(gè)解決辦法。

13:13

Now what I would love to do is bringtogether all of the people with knowledge in this space. The engineers who knowhow to build structures offshore, the seaweed farmers, the financiers, thegovernment regulators, the people who understand how things are done. And charta way forward, say: How do we go from the existing six-billion-dollar-a-year,inshore seaweed industry, to this new form of industry, which has got so muchpotential, but will require large amounts of investment? I'm not a betting man,you know. But if I were, I'll tell you, my money would be on that stuff, itwould be on seaweed. It's my hero.

現(xiàn)在我想要做的是，聚集所有的人和在這個(gè)領(lǐng)域的知識(shí)。知道如何建造海上結(jié)構(gòu)的工程師，海藻養(yǎng)殖員，金融家，政府監(jiān)管者，所有知道怎樣做成事情的人們。然后繪制出前進(jìn)的道路，問(wèn)：我們?nèi)绾螐默F(xiàn)存的產(chǎn)值 60 億美元每年的沿海海藻產(chǎn)業(yè)，走向潛力巨大但是需要大量投入的新型產(chǎn)業(yè)？ 我不是一個(gè)愛(ài)賭的人。如果我是，我會(huì)告訴你們，我的錢(qián)都會(huì)下注在這里，下注在海藻上。它是我的英雄。

13:53

Thank you.

謝謝大家。

13:54

(Applause)

（掌聲）