禁煙未能掐滅煙草行業(yè)

The tobacco industry should be dead by now. Billions of dollars in lawsuits, public health campaigns, heavy restrictions on advertising, none have succeed in killing it. Forty million Americans still smoke — 15 per cent of women and about 20 per cent of men. Chances are they’ll die a decade before non-smokers but they keep lighting up.

煙草行業(yè)到現(xiàn)在應(yīng)該已經(jīng)死亡。數(shù)十億美元的訴訟、公共衛(wèi)生宣傳、嚴(yán)格的廣告限制，都沒有成功掐滅這個(gè)行業(yè)。美國(guó)仍有4000萬人吸煙，占女性的15%，占男性的20%左右。他們可能比不吸煙者早死10年，但他們?nèi)栽谕淘仆蚂F。

Around the world, antismoking campaigns have succeeded in stabilising the rise in the number of smokers. In China, sales are falling. In Australia, cigarettes must be sold in drab green packages covered in pictures of tumours, diseased hearts and lungs, and dying smokers. The brand name can only appear in small font on the front. The logic is that “unbranded” cigarettes are less appealing to the young who might otherwise see them as a statement of fashion or rebellion.

在全球范圍內(nèi)，禁煙運(yùn)動(dòng)成功穩(wěn)定了吸煙者數(shù)量的增加。在中國(guó)，香煙銷售額在下滑。在澳大利亞，香煙必須以單調(diào)的綠色包裝銷售，包裝上有腫瘤、患病心臟和肺以及垂死吸煙者的圖片。品牌名稱只能以小字體出現(xiàn)在包裝正面。其邏輯是，“無品牌”香煙不那么吸引年輕人，否則他們可能視其為一種時(shí)尚或反叛的聲明。

Yet, for all this, tobacco companies have proved crafty and resilient. This week John Boehner, the Republican former speaker of the House of Representatives, joined the board of Reynolds American, the makers of Camel and Newport. Mr Boehner is a Camel Ultra-Lights man and his job will be to speak for tobacco in Washington.

然而，盡管如此，煙草公司已被證明足智多謀且靈活善變。最近，美國(guó)前眾議院議長(zhǎng)、共和黨人約翰•博納(John Boehner)加入雷諾美國(guó)(Reynolds American)董事會(huì)，該公司是駱駝香煙(Camel)和新港(Newport)香煙的生產(chǎn)商。博納是駱駝超醇香煙(Camel Ultra-Lights)的愛好者，他的工作將是在華盛頓為煙草公司辯護(hù)。

During the summer, Newport engaged in its first direct-to-consumer marketing campaign in 15 years, promoting its menthol cigarettes at music festivals around the country using the Newport Pleasure Lounge, an air-conditioned trailer for smokers. Menthols, Newport reckons, have new potential among younger consumers who crave flavour. They provide all the hit of a traditional cigarette with a cool blast of mint. Anyone willing to drink Budweiser’s Lime-A-Rita beer margarita, goes the theory, will be willing to take up menthols. Whether these are the deranged ravings of product marketing or truth, only the market will tell.

今年夏季，新港展開了15年來首次直接面向消費(fèi)者的營(yíng)銷活動(dòng)，利用為吸煙者準(zhǔn)備的一輛配有空調(diào)的拖車Newport Pleasure Lounge，在全國(guó)各地的音樂節(jié)上促銷其薄荷香煙。新港估計(jì)，薄荷香煙在渴求風(fēng)味的較年輕消費(fèi)者中具有新的潛力。它們提供傳統(tǒng)香煙的所有提神效果，同時(shí)加上了一種清涼的薄荷濃香。按照這種理論，任何一個(gè)希望飲用百威(Budweiser)青檸麗塔啤酒(Lime-A-Rita)的人都愿意嘗試薄荷香煙。這些是產(chǎn)品營(yíng)銷的瘋言瘋語還是事實(shí)，只有市場(chǎng)能夠作出評(píng)判。

Japan Tobacco recently entered the US market with its inexpensive LD cigarettes. In North Carolina, the home of US tobacco, where prices are among the lowest, a pack of LD costs just over half the price of a pack of Marlboro. Japan Tobacco’s logic is that the antismoking movement in the US is waning. There are fewer lawsuits, prices keep rising and the decline in the number of smokers seems to have slowed.

日本煙草公司(Japan Tobacco)最近進(jìn)入美國(guó)市場(chǎng)，推出了價(jià)格不高的樂迪(LD)香煙。在美國(guó)煙草的故鄉(xiāng)北卡羅來納州，一包樂迪香煙的售價(jià)僅為萬寶路(Marlboro)的一半多一點(diǎn)，而該州的香煙價(jià)格處于全球最低之列。日本煙草公司的邏輯是，美國(guó)的禁煙運(yùn)動(dòng)正在衰落。訴訟數(shù)量減少，價(jià)格持續(xù)上漲，吸煙者數(shù)量的下滑趨勢(shì)似乎已放緩。

It feels as though, after years of hiding in plain sight, the tobacco industry is once again ready to strut. Yet, for investors, the product has never stopped churning out returns. A recent report from Credit Suisse covering industries with data going back to 1900 showed that tobacco had performed best, with an annualised return of 14.6 per cent compared with an average of 9.6 per cent. A dollar invested in tobacco companies in 1900 would have grown, with reinvested dividends, to $38,255 by the end of 2014. If you had invested the same dollar in shipbuilding and shipping, you would have a measly $1,225.

感覺好像是，在經(jīng)過多年在人們眼皮底下藏身后，煙草行業(yè)正準(zhǔn)備再次昂首闊步。然而，對(duì)于投資者而言，這種產(chǎn)品從未停止產(chǎn)生利潤(rùn)。瑞信(Credit Suisse)最近一份報(bào)告囊括了各種行業(yè)，數(shù)據(jù)回溯到1900年。報(bào)告顯示，煙草行業(yè)表現(xiàn)最佳，年化回報(bào)率達(dá)到14.6%，而平均水平為9.6%。如果你在1900年投資煙草公司1美元，并將股息用于再投資，到2014年底這筆投資將增值至3.8255萬美元。如果你用同樣的錢投資造船和航運(yùn)業(yè)，你只能拿回區(qū)區(qū)1225美元。

The California Public Employees’ Retirement System sold its tobacco holdings 16 years ago, in the thick of the litigation against tobacco companies, but has said it may reconsider its decision.

16年前，加州公務(wù)員養(yǎng)老體系(California Public Employees’ Retirement System)出售了其在煙草公司的持股，當(dāng)時(shí)抵制煙草公司的訴訟非常多，但該機(jī)構(gòu)表示，可能會(huì)重新考慮其決定。

So what’s the secret? At one level, it’s simple. Cigarettes are cheap to make and highly addictive, which allows for fat margins. And customers are loyal to their brands. Snag them when they are young and chances are you’ll have them until they give up or die.

那么秘訣是什么?從一個(gè)層面來說，很簡(jiǎn)單。香煙生產(chǎn)成本廉價(jià)，而且很容易讓人上癮，達(dá)到豐厚利潤(rùn)率的空間巨大。消費(fèi)者忠于品牌。如果在消費(fèi)者年輕時(shí)就抓住機(jī)會(huì)，那么他們就很有可能會(huì)一直吸這種品牌的香煙，直到他們戒煙或死去。

But tobacco companies have also proved remarkably innovative in the face of apparently existential threats. Chewing tobacco sales have been creeping up. The market in ecigarettes, which heat tobacco fluid rather than burning cured leaves, is rapidly growing as companies figure out how deliver more nicotine per puff and send it deep into a smoker’s lungs. Sixteen per cent of school pupils aged 17-18 had smoked ecigarettes in the past year, according to US government estimates.

但事實(shí)還證明，面對(duì)貌似生死存亡的威脅，煙草公司具有驚人的創(chuàng)新能力。嚼煙的銷售額一直在緩慢攀升。電子香煙市場(chǎng)(加熱煙草液體，而不是燃燒卷煙)正迅速壯大，煙草公司琢磨出如何增加每口吸入的尼古丁含量并令其深入吸煙者的肺。根據(jù)美國(guó)政府的估計(jì)，過去一年，在17至18歲的學(xué)生中，有16%吸過電子香煙。

Cigarette companies have even ridden the organic wave. Reynolds American makes Natural American Spirit cigarettes, which it describes as “natural”, “additive free” and made with organic tobacco. The packets show a figure of a native American smoking a long pipe.

煙草公司甚至搭上了有機(jī)的浪潮。雷諾美國(guó)生產(chǎn)了Natural American Spirit香煙，稱其為“天然”、“無添加劑”而且用有機(jī)煙草生產(chǎn)。香煙包裝上是一張美國(guó)原住民抽旱煙的圖片。

Antismoking campaigners say, call them what you like, the cigarettes are just as bad for you as any other. But the marketing message — that somehow in smoking them you are tapping into some ancient, herbal ritual — goes down especially well with hipsters. A packet of Natural American Spirit is acceptable in environments where Marlboro is not.

禁煙活動(dòng)人士(你怎么稱呼都行)表示，這種香煙和其他香煙一樣對(duì)人體有害。但這種營(yíng)銷信息(吸這種煙會(huì)讓你重拾一些古老的、草本的儀式)尤其受到潮人的歡迎。在萬寶路不被接受的某些環(huán)境，一包Natural American Spirit可以讓人接受。

Tobacco companies also benefit from rising incomes in emerging economies. Even if the number of smokers is stagnant or falling in many places, you can keep pushing up the price of cigarettes as wages rise in emerging markets to compensate. If you put aside the health consequences, a pack of 20 remains a cheap thrill.

煙草公司還受益于新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體收入的日益增加。即便很多地區(qū)的吸煙者數(shù)量不增或下降，隨著新興市場(chǎng)的薪資上漲，你仍可以推高香煙價(jià)格作為彌補(bǔ)。如果你拋開健康后果，一包20支的香煙仍然是一種廉價(jià)的刺激。

For those who have rightly been banging on for years about the iniquity of tobacco companies, it must be maddening. For every blow they land, the industry feints into new areas of profitability. It seems quite possible that, 100 years from now, it will still be churning out cash at a rate to turn the rest of the Dow Jones green.

對(duì)于那些多年來正當(dāng)抨擊煙草公司罪惡的人而言，這肯定令人惱火。每當(dāng)他們展開抨擊時(shí)，該行業(yè)都會(huì)虛晃一槍，進(jìn)入新的盈利領(lǐng)域。100年后，該行業(yè)仍將實(shí)現(xiàn)高額利潤(rùn)，而其利潤(rùn)率將讓道瓊斯指數(shù)(Dow Jones)其他股票艷羨。